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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:48 pm to UpToPar
quote:
You ask how much to play. He tells you, it costs $X to play the game. OP is asking, what do you think X should be.
$4 but let them call heads or tails... give them a sense of control.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:48 pm to terd ferguson
quote:
If the pot starts at $2 and I risk $1,000,000 then the pot is now $1,000,002 and if I flip tails I receive a payout the size of the pot according to the OP.
The OP shouldn't have called it a 'pot' but rather a 'prize.'
You're thinking of a traditional pot like in card games, but in this instance it is just the prize you win, plain and simple. The longer you flip heads, the bigger the prize.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:48 pm to GenesChin
If "the house" or for that matter anyone other than me is doubling the pot until I win, then the answer depends on the size of their bankroll. If I get on a real hot streak the pot could grow to a point where they could not double.
If the answer is that there is no limit then I will not play because it's a scam.
If the answer is that there is no limit then I will not play because it's a scam.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:49 pm to Aux Arc
quote:
You are being intentionally obtuse aren't you? I feel a hook in my jaw.
Only since the point where I realized that the money the player was putting in did not go into the pot.
Now I'm being normal.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:50 pm to Aux Arc
but saying $2 is just best case scenario for customer what is the amt that game becomes 50/50 for house and customer?
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:55 pm to GenesChin
I think the OP dicked up his hypothetical but he needs to come back with the "answers" just in case there's some neat math behind all of this with which he's going to boom us. 
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:56 pm to UpToPar
So your 1x bet to play the game is basically taking a chance that you will flip enough heads to double the pot to cover your buy in before flipping tails, and "losing" by winning a pot = less than your original bet.
I would consider 4 "heads" in a row lucky. That would lead to a 32$ pot. Any flips beyond that would be a nice payout. I would imagine the casino setting the buy in at 30$. I wouldn't play but I would sit and watch people lose money while drinking complementary crown.
I would consider 4 "heads" in a row lucky. That would lead to a 32$ pot. Any flips beyond that would be a nice payout. I would imagine the casino setting the buy in at 30$. I wouldn't play but I would sit and watch people lose money while drinking complementary crown.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:58 pm to Walking the Earth
no shite just like u can get house % hold on various games, I'm not going to find a roulette wheel w 35 numbers that would make the game even if just playing numbers and house paying 35/1
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:00 pm to Walking the Earth
It looks like $6 is about the break even point over many games.
Let's say 100 people each play the game once.
50 people are going to win $2
25 will win $4
12.5 will win $8
6.25 will win $16
3.125 will win $32
1.5625 will win $64
Each of these groups adds up to $100 paid out (50x$2, 24x$4, 12.5x$8, etc.) totaling $600 paid out. $600 paid out divided by 100 games equals $6 per game.
Let's say 100 people each play the game once.
50 people are going to win $2
25 will win $4
12.5 will win $8
6.25 will win $16
3.125 will win $32
1.5625 will win $64
Each of these groups adds up to $100 paid out (50x$2, 24x$4, 12.5x$8, etc.) totaling $600 paid out. $600 paid out divided by 100 games equals $6 per game.
This post was edited on 1/15/16 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:02 pm to Scooba
I'm guessing the number is somewhere in the range of $15-$20 but I don't have the math reasoning for my hunch.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:03 pm to GenesChin
Ah, the St. Petersburg Paradox. The only math puzzle/paradox I've seen start more fights is the Monty Hall problem.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:04 pm to PearlJam
quote:
No way he setup his scenario correctly.
Or, some aren't understanding it correctly.
He definitely did not explain it well.
But I think I see what he is saying now.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:04 pm to Aux Arc
up to par believe ugot right formula but 50 would win $4 it doubles on 1st flip
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:07 pm to sealedup
quote:
up to par believe ugot right formula but 50 would win $4 it doubles on 1st flip
Nope. 50 would move on to the second flip, but assuming 50/50 odds, half of that 50 would win again, moving on to the third flip. That's why only 25 people would win $4.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:09 pm to sealedup
The problem is that, because the pot keeps doubling, it would only take 1 person to flip 7 or 8 times and really screw up the probabilities. If just one person wins $128 or $256, then $6 as the break even point becomes wayyy off.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:10 pm to GenesChin
about tree fiddy
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:11 pm to UpToPar
i got u but in the confusing rules it reads to me that it will never be a payout of $2 which will bring the # to $12
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:13 pm to sealedup
true but if you are the house with unlimited bankroll you can charge $1 or $2 dollars extra to start
Posted on 1/15/16 at 2:14 pm to UpToPar
quote:
If just one person wins $128 or $256, then $6 as the break even point becomes wayyy off.
True, but all the casino has to do is make enough to win in the long run.
If as you say, the average payout of 100 players is 600$. Lets say the casino sets the game at 8$ to play. You flip at least twice and you make your money back. 3 in a row is a winner. Casino makes an average of 200$ off of every 100 players and the chance of someone winning 128$ is < 1 in 100.
My numbers aren't as clear as yours but does that make sense? I may be way off...
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