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re: Southern Severe Weather Threat (Thursday/Friday)
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:48 pm to auggie
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:48 pm to auggie
quote:
It's like this: about a month ago, they were predicting bad stuff for my neighborhood
Maybe you didn't mean this literally but NOBODY was predicting anything down to the neighborhood level. None of these SPC maps are anywhere near that localized
It sounds like it's your families reaction to the rabble that's bothering you the most. Perhaps you should address that with them, try to educate them about severe weather and how on any given all time bad day it's very unlikely a tornado destroys your house
1
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:51 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
However, that doesn’t mean the National Weather Service and the broadcast meteorologists can wait until just a few hours in advance to start telling people that there is a threat. If they did, people would get just as mad as they do when a forecast busts.
and just from personal experience a week or two ago, my wife would've been left at work in the path of a tornado without shelter instead of me being able to warn her to get out of harms way and where to go safely
If not for the advanced warning I'd have been somewhere without internet/cell service and no way to watch out for her when she was busy working and frankly not weather wise enough to know what to do anyways
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:00 pm to auggie
quote:
They shut down schools, sent people home from work, killed all kinds of productivity, for a tiny tornado that knocked down a few trees, and left a handful of people without electricity. I guess TV ratings were great though.
I don't agree with most of this sentiment, for one thing there's no way to know where the "few knocked down trees from a tiny tornado" will be and could easily be at a school and instead of a tiny tornado and much stronger one.
THAT said the whole closing schools/business deals is heavily debated within the weather industry and there is absolutely no consensus on the action as a lot of times people/kids are safer at schools than possibly being at home/mobile home unsupervised.
Ultimately none of this really matters as the main reason for closures is liability and institutions/businesses being terrified of getting their balls sued off for the wrong thing happening but that's not something the weather industry is responsible for, that lies at the feet of our entire tort system
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:04 pm to LegendInMyMind
Y'all got any recommended weather Twitters to follow? I've started a separate weather list on my Twitter news feed. I like to follow the discussion and graphics leading up to events like this but I usually have to just search "severe weather Thursday" or something like that and scroll through all the tweets. Just found out I could set up a list and add accounts and have a topical feed separate from my usual follows.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:07 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
Maybe you didn't mean this literally but NOBODY was predicting anything down to the neighborhood level. None of these SPC maps are anywhere near that localized
That's the whole problem. They put out their watches and warnings for areas that cover 10 counties at a time, when there is only a maybe 1 county area that has anything to worry about.
This will happen several more times this spring.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:36 pm to auggie
quote:
they were predicting bad stuff for my neighborhood. It started raining early in the morning, so the temp stayed down about 65 degrees all day and the temps were only going to drop into the low 40s overnight. I said, "there's nothing to worry about here, but they kept on putting out watches and warnings. Now at my friend's house about 25 miles south, it didn't rain much, and their temps got up in the 70s. Juust over the hill from his house a small tornado came through, it followed the creek bottom and knocked down a lot of trees and he was without power for about 4 days. We didn't even have lightning or wind gusts at our place. All my family was in a panic though and glued to the TV set. Now, if I ever start feeling those warm and cold pockets in the air, I will get worried. That's when I know there may be problems.
25 miles isn’t that far away. The reason they put out “tornado probability” maps is to tell you the percent chance of a tornado within 25 mile radius. So whatever the risk was in your area it was likely justified.
It’s impossible to predict the exact weather for each neighborhood
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:39 pm to auggie
quote:
They put out their watches and warnings for areas that cover 10 counties at a time,
That’s kind of how it works for watches.
And I bet you can’t point to any examples of warnings for this big of an area.
I really can’t understand why some of you still get so butthirt about weather stuff. TigahRah or whatever his name would be proud
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:43 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I really can’t understand why some of you still get so butthirt about weather stuff. TigahRah or whatever his name would be proud
His family members are clearly uneducated about storms and tornado watches/warnings. The reaction he describes is irrational.
He clearly is uneducated on the same topic.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:46 pm to auggie
quote:
They put out their watches and warnings for areas that cover 10 counties at a time, when there is only a maybe 1 county area that has anything to worry about.
You have to be a troll. A storm system that only affects "one county" is very rare.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:46 pm to deltaland
quote:
25 miles isn’t that far away. The reason they put out “tornado probability” maps is to tell you the percent chance of a tornado within 25 mile radius. So whatever the risk was in your area it was likely justified.
It’s impossible to predict the exact weather for each neighborhood
see, it's not about the distance. It's about the temperature difference and conditions, between his place and mine, and they have this information from all these areas down to the minute.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:09 pm to DVinBR
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:11 pm to auggie
quote:
That's the whole problem. They put out their watches and warnings for areas that cover 10 counties at a time, when there is only a maybe 1 county area that has anything to worry about. This will happen several more times this spring
But that's as far as they can narrow it down days in advance. Day of they certainly don't issue warnings 10 counties wide
Do you think it would be better if they did nothing til day of bc they can't be more precise?
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:13 pm to auggie
quote:
see, it's not about the distance. It's about the temperature difference and conditions, between his place and mine, and they have this information from all these areas down to the minute
But they don't have them more than a few hours out if that. Again, I guess you'd just rather them say nothing until a tornado is actually on the ground? You can have that opinion but i and many others don't think it's the best course
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:17 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
Do you think it would be better if they did nothing til day of bc they can't be more precise?
Oh, I am saying is what they know is very precise, what they actually tell the viewers isn't precise at all.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:23 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
Y'all got any recommended weather Twitters to follow? I've started a separate weather list on my Twitter news feed. I like to follow the discussion and graphics leading up to events like this but I usually have to just search "severe weather Thursday" or something like that and scroll through all the tweets. Just found out I could set up a list and add accounts and have a topical feed separate from my usual follows.
Definitely SPC and your local NWS office. @NWStornado shares every tornado warning and tornado watch issued across the country, so they’re worth a follow.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:27 pm to auggie
quote:
That's the whole problem. They put out their watches and warnings for areas that cover 10 counties at a time, when there is only a maybe 1 county area that has anything to worry about. This will happen several more times this spring.
Not to be a jerk, but I honestly don’t think you really know what you’re talking about.
Tornado watches are designed to cover larger areas because the covered area is favorable for development of thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. That doesn’t mean the entire Watch area will see a tornado, but it means that anywhere in that watch area such a storm could form. Tornado watches are typically issued prior to any tornadic storm development.
There are no tornado warnings that cover “10 counties.” In fact, in the last 20 years tornado warnings have gotten smaller and more precise. They used to issue a warning for an entire county, now the warnings are polygon based and do not typically cover even one entire county, though a warning polygon might clip parts of multiple counties. Tornado warnings are not issued until there is a storm capable of producing a tornado imminently or actually producing a tornado.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:30 pm to auggie
quote:
Oh, I am saying is what they know is very precise, what they actually tell the viewers isn't precise at all.
I am saying unless you work in the weather prediction/forecasting world - you do not know shite, and should just stop - you are embarrassing yourself here. you com across as clueless or just willfully arguing, and it seems trollish.
you are, of course entitled to your opinion, but it is largely wrong
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:35 pm to auggie
quote:
Oh, I am saying is what they know is very precise, what they actually tell the viewers isn't precise at all.
Well that's just absurd
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:37 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Not to be a jerk, but I honestly don’t think you really know what you’re talking about.
Tornado watches are designed to cover larger areas because the covered area is favorable for development of thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. That doesn’t mean the entire Watch area will see a tornado, but it means that anywhere in that watch area such a storm could form. Tornado watches are typically issued prior to any tornadic storm development.
There are no tornado warnings that cover “10 counties.” In fact, in the last 20 years tornado warnings have gotten smaller and more precise. They used to issue a warning for an entire county, now the warnings are polygon based and do not typically cover even one entire county, though a warning polygon might clip parts of multiple counties. Tornado warnings are not issued until there is a storm capable of producing a tornado imminently or actually producing a tornado.
I know that most times, I can predict it for the area I'm in, much better than they can. It's not about me though, it's about those people who are glued to the TV sets watching, and I'm not one of them.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:38 pm to auggie
With all these precise forecasting talents I'm pretty surprised they haven't just hired you. Even if only for in house purposes, clearly they wouldn't want to share your level of accuracy with the public they aim to deceive
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