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Started By
Message
re: Southeast and Midwest Severe Weather Outbreak & Flood Event: April 2-7, 2025
Posted on 4/2/25 at 1:58 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 4/2/25 at 1:58 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
New tornado watch coming soon for the high risk area.
Mesoscale Discussion 0355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...Missouri Bootheel...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021751Z - 021945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest an increasing probability of discrete storms near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. All severe hazards, including strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cumulus west-southwest of Memphis into the Missouri Bootheel/western Kentucky. Within continued surface heating, these trends appear likely to continue. This region, ahead of the convective activity to the west, would be very favorable for discrete storm development. Should this occur, all severe hazards, including the potential for strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. Regional VAD data shows strong low-level shear/hodograph enlargement. With the primary synoptic shortwave and surface low farther northwest, there remain some uncertainties as to when and how many storms will form. Morning observed soundings from the region did have capping inversions evident which could at least slow initiation. Given the environment, a tornado watch is likely this afternoon.
Mesoscale Discussion 0355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...Missouri Bootheel...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021751Z - 021945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest an increasing probability of discrete storms near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. All severe hazards, including strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cumulus west-southwest of Memphis into the Missouri Bootheel/western Kentucky. Within continued surface heating, these trends appear likely to continue. This region, ahead of the convective activity to the west, would be very favorable for discrete storm development. Should this occur, all severe hazards, including the potential for strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. Regional VAD data shows strong low-level shear/hodograph enlargement. With the primary synoptic shortwave and surface low farther northwest, there remain some uncertainties as to when and how many storms will form. Morning observed soundings from the region did have capping inversions evident which could at least slow initiation. Given the environment, a tornado watch is likely this afternoon.
0
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:11 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
The debates regarding sediment flow/distribution, the Old River Control Structure, and whether or not the river would ever go back to its current path if that structure fails always entertain me.
Don’t forget the effect it has on crawfish prices, fishing and oyster farms
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:11 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Supposedly lots of historic flooding is predicted up there which is believed to affect the Mississippi River levels. I love a good OT Mississippi River flood thread, been a long time since we had one of those. The debates regarding sediment flow/distribution, the Old River Control Structure, and whether or not the river would ever go back to its current path if that structure fails always entertain me.
Morganza something something
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:13 pm to deeprig9
Some small discreet convection near Greenville Ms way ahead of everything else and just south of the area about to go under s tornado watch
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:17 pm to slinger1317
quote:
slinger1317
I bet your wife doesn’t get a lot of couples invites bc they know she’d have to bring you.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:22 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:boom
I bet your wife doesn’t get a lot of couples invites bc they know she’d have to bring you.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:22 pm to slinger1317
quote:
slinger1317
Some of you are just whiny arse bitches.
This post was edited on 4/2/25 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:24 pm to slinger1317
quote:
I just don't buy into the new fad of weather sensationalism, and threads like these just feed into it
Glad that's settled, and we can all get back to work now.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:24 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
I bet your wife doesn’t get a lot of couples invites bc they know she’d have to bring you.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:26 pm to OWLFAN86
Just brought 10 large potted plants back out on Sunday for natural sunlight and rain. Been under a grow light in the garage all winter. Have to bring them all back in now for the projected winds tonight and yard guy just found some scales on one of the potted gardenia trees so I have to keep it isolated from the others until the neem oil spray is delivered tomorrow 
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:26 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Multiple tornadic storms going is in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Also starting to see cells pop southwest of Memphis. Those will be ones to watch as they move into the high risk area.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:35 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Also starting to see cells pop southwest of Memphis
Starting to get some pretty strong gusts of wind in Germantown.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:35 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
These are sort of in a radar hole, but these two storms near the AR/MO border are ugly looking.
This post was edited on 4/2/25 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:49 pm to slinger1317
quote:
slinger1317
Is that you downvoting every post in this thread?
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:55 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Looks like it.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:55 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
New tornado watch. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch.
Probabilities within this tornado watch:
Probabilities within this tornado watch:
This post was edited on 4/2/25 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 4/2/25 at 2:58 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Was just hailing in Olive Branch
Should start to see some more discrete cells pop off soon in that watch area
Should start to see some more discrete cells pop off soon in that watch area
This post was edited on 4/2/25 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 4/2/25 at 3:26 pm to LSUGrrrl
chores
one day you'll miss doing that stuff
one day you'll miss doing that stuff
Posted on 4/2/25 at 3:30 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
These are sort of in a radar hole, but these two storms near the AR/MO border are ugly looking.
Lot of tornadoes in that area over the last year or so
Posted on 4/2/25 at 3:37 pm to Mr Roboto
Confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado on this storm SW of St. Louis.
This post was edited on 4/2/25 at 3:41 pm
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