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re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)
Posted on 1/17/22 at 12:59 pm to Impotent Waffle
Posted on 1/17/22 at 12:59 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Which models are more reliable with winter storms?
None are super reliable, especially in the deep south where its hard to get enough cold with moisture.
The good news is the big questions on the model are larger scale stuff the globals might sniff out in the next day or two. The bad news is we have two awfully complex interactions between a southern shortwave and a bigger northern trough.
We need them to come together in a way that causes more cold air to come down and leaves a bit of energy trailing to lift the moisture in the now cold.
The GFS splits the two features and doesnt get the cold down. The euro brings them together but in such a way it just brings cold air. Canadians are in line with Euro but its cold bias means it produces wintery stuff vs. liquid.
2
Posted on 1/17/22 at 1:00 pm to notiger1997
quote:
quote: Yeah this didn't happen He’s already shown that it did happen.
Hell I didn’t even grow up here and I knew about the ice in 89. A friend of mine had pictures of him and his bro standing on the ice.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 1:03 pm to elprez00
I get nervous walking on Northern ice/frozen lakes when I know they are frozen solid. I don't think I would have the balls to walk on a "frozen" lake in the South, much less in SE Lousiana. Nope, nope, nope.
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 1:09 pm to LegendInMyMind
The sound of the ice cracking still makes me nervous, even after I saw a truck drive over it.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 1:15 pm to Duke
Thanks Duke. We shall what happens
Posted on 1/17/22 at 2:59 pm to Langland
This should make my flight to MSY entertaining on Friday
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:03 pm to Duke
quote:Okay, Joe.
We need them to come together
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:25 pm to jimbeam
Another model run (18z NAM) picking up the possibility of freezing rain for overnight Thursday into early Friday morning
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:27 pm to Langland
quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
247 PM CST Mon Jan 17 2022
quote:
The long term forecast is very uncertain given the large differences
in the model guidance Friday through Sunday. Some models, like the
GFS ensembles, show some a lingering frontal boundary Friday and
a Gulf low moving through our area over the weekend interacting
with the front off the coast, which would keep our rain chances
enhanced over the weekend. Some models, like the Euro, aren`t
initializing with a Gulf low at all and just continue the front
moving through the Gulf, indicating lower rain chances. NBM is
more in line with the GFS runs that indicate enhanced rainfall on
Friday into the weekend. Given the large spread in the models, the
NBM PoPs were not adjusted much for any targets of opportunity.
It will be interesting to see how the system develops through the
early week as it will impact our rain chances (and frankly, any
potential for winter precipitation, given the colder than average
temperatures) for Friday into the weekend. Winter precipitation is
possible, depending on rainfall and timing , but unlikely/very
uncertain at this point, so it has been left out of the forecast.
It is worth noting that it will be pretty cold though, looking at
the general model consensus, regardless of the spread in
precipitation chances with temperatures below average in the model
guidance Friday through the weekend.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:36 pm to trussthetruzz
Freezing rain would suck
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:41 pm to DVinBR
GFS currently only gets the temp down to around 37°, and around 40° near NO. It does have the rain, but just doesn't bring cold enough air with it.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:43 pm to Impotent Waffle
Agreed- do not want any part of ice. Although at 5 days out I like seeing the chance for any frozen precip.
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:43 pm to LegendInMyMind
Its splitting energy north and south. Hence its warmer than everything else but wetter since there is a trailing shortwave but since they dont phase together, the colder air doesnt get as far south.
I think they actually do end up interacting but not coming together early like the Euro. Still a miss on snow for the gulf coast but closer temp wise than the GFS shows and more moisture and a little warmer than the Euro and Canadian.
I think they actually do end up interacting but not coming together early like the Euro. Still a miss on snow for the gulf coast but closer temp wise than the GFS shows and more moisture and a little warmer than the Euro and Canadian.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 3:56 pm to Duke
The NAM seems to want to pull the freezing line farther South, and quicker. Looks like a timing issue, a race of temp drop verses how quick that rain moves out.
Just nosing around the SREF looking at timing verses what the NAM has. NAM drops the temp earlier and the freezing line farther South. By the time the temps drop on the SREF most of the rain is into MS or offshore.
Just nosing around the SREF looking at timing verses what the NAM has. NAM drops the temp earlier and the freezing line farther South. By the time the temps drop on the SREF most of the rain is into MS or offshore.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:20 pm to LegendInMyMind
My kids are gonna be disappointed... I blaming TD weather reporters.....
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:33 pm to Duke
Duke, am I reading it right that the GFS is showing like 11 inches of snow for central GA this weekend?
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:45 pm to Pettifogger
what GFS shows will basically frick Atlanta, good luck with air travel that timeframe
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:48 pm to Pettifogger
You're not reading it right, but the 18z does show a chance for freezing rain this weekend for that area, snow accumulation is minimal on this run.
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:51 pm to Ponchy Tiger
It 100% happened. I walked out from one of the jetty’s on the Mandeville lakefront. My mom freaked the frick out on me and made me get back up on the sea wall.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:51 pm to VanRIch
quote:
My mom freaked the frick out on me and made me get back up on the sea wall.
Good thing. You don't have gills, baw.
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