re: Severe Weather for Friday

Evaporated over my part of TX. Not a sprinkle, just wind.

They’ve expanded the moderate risk, it now covers much of southern Arkansas and now crosses into Alabama just barely.

I’ll tell you, this isn’t the look you want to see on the simulated radar with a severe wind threat. That bowing line just looks nasty.

The SPC covered about every possible meteorological term they could in that synopsis.

quote:

---

The SPC covered about every possible meteorological term they could in that synopsis.

---

It’s a strange and complex setup, especially depending on exactly where you’re at. 3k NAM suggests central Alabama could see three different clusters of storms through the overnight and early morning hours.

quote:

---

including derecho?

---

Yep. It is in there. Not in the synopsis, but in the following discussion.

For whatever reason, it seems like the Southeast US, from East Texas to South Carolina has become the focus of big tornados in recent years.

My brother in Starkville constructed a regular-size room in his house (not just a closet) that can withstand even the most likely major tornado.

quote:

---

For whatever reason, it seems like the Southeast US, from East Texas to South Carolina has become the focus of big tornados in recent years.

---

We’ve had big tornadoes in this part of the country for as long as tornado records have been kept. I think we’ve just had some big events in recent years that bring more attention to the fact that this area is also extremely active when it comes to severe weather. With social media and everything now, more people in other places are aware of the tornadoes we have here.

our boy Nick Mik is out of town but still providing updates

quote:

---

Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I still can’t believe what I saw out here in Texas last night. 10 minutes of hail from marbles to 2 inches in diameter was a wild sight to see. Unfortunately, it looks like there will be many similar events over a large area today and tonight. But the moral of the story for me is that I obviously shouldn’t storm chase. My best “chase” of the year was stepping out the back door of the hotel.
Locally, here’s what I’m seeing. There could be a few severe storms this afternoon. These would most likely be north of a Natchitoches to Jena line, but it’s possible we see one sneak as far south as Alexandria. The main show comes tonight in the window from 10:00 PM until 5:00 AM. SPC has a good part of the area in a level 3/5 enhanced risk, with a level
4/5 moderate risk just to our northeast. Severe parameters are high as the front approaches, and yet again, this is an “all modes” threat. Damaging wind is the most likely issue, but scattered hail over 1 inch in diameter, and a couple tornadoes are possible. This is an overnight event, which makes it even more dangerous. Garage the cars if possible, have a plan to evacuate mobile homes quickly, or better yet, stay with someone in more substantial shelter if possible. An EF 1 tornado would cause minor damage to a brick home, but could completely destroy a mobile home. Just have a plan, and be ready to move quickly.
I’m still out of town. Heading back tomorrow. I was able to stay on warning duty with the last system, but with this being a late night system, I won’t be for this one. So please, please have a way to get warnings. This could be a higher end event, and you need to have avenues to get the warnings. KALB, weather radio, and even some apps work for up to the minute warnings. I use RadarScope, which is $10 a year, but shows warnings, radar data, and lots of weather nerd stuff. Stay informed, and stay safe!

---