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1
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:05 pm to Loungefly85
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:06 pm to Duke
quote:
SUMMARY...Convection will likely develop in the next 1-2 hours and
watch will likely be needed by 00z. A localized tornado threat may
develop in the vicinity of the Red River from north Texas into
south-central OK in the short term with additional severe convection
expected later this evening into central TX.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated cu field across the Red River Valley into north TX along a
sharp dryline extending southward from a surface low near CDS, and
to the south of a warm front oriented west to east across
south-central OK. Latest water vapor imagery also shows some deeper
updrafts beginning to develop in the vicinity of Jack, Montague,
Cooke, Wise and Denton Counties in north Texas. Furthermore, the
increase of midlevel clouds further southwest across the Trans-Pecos
and Permia Basin regions of western TX indicate that stronger
forcing is now beginning to shift eastward into the region. This
should support convective initiation in the next couple of hours
across the MCD area.
In the short term, should isolated cells develop in the vicinity of
the triple point in the Red River Valley, supercells capable of very
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. While low
level flow isn't particularly strong across this region, the warm
front will enhance low level SRH. Mean mixing ratios between 12-14
g/kg also will be more than sufficient for tornado production.
Additionally, midlevel lapse rates between 8-9 C/km as sampled by
the 20z OUN RAOB and 0-6 km shear greater than 45 kt will favor very
large hail.
Eventually, as forcing for ascent increases and the surface cold
front begins to catch up to the dryline, additional, vigorous
convection is expected to develop southward into central Texas this
evening. This convection may initially pose a threat for very large
hail before growing upscale into bowing line segments and
transitioning to a damaging wind threat.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:06 pm to DVinBR
quote:
In collaboration with SPC, portions or all of the area may be upgraded to MODERATE risk should certain parameters come in line based on this evening`s balloon data and subsequent model runs. CHAP output is hitting on EF0 to EF3 tornado potential and this is in line with the Effective Layer STP analogs, suggestive of EF4+ potentials. Gust potential is in the 55 to 65 kt range, hail generally marble size but can be larger. Convection should end from west to east with frontal passage in the evening hours, thinking all areas will be cleared by midnight.
Link? or area?
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:07 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
That’s the problem. He has to be at a new job at 4:00 pm tomorrow.
Then be coming in right on time or leave before 6AM.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:08 pm to chinhoyang
That's from the New Orleans NWS. Talking potential tomorrow.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:12 pm to Duke
Cells firing off in the Canton area
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:13 pm to Duke
Watch officially up for DFW metro.
Ugly cell firing off NE of Breckinridge TX
Edit; Jacksborough TX as well
Ugly cell firing off NE of Breckinridge TX
Edit; Jacksborough TX as well
This post was edited on 4/17/19 at 6:14 pm
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:22 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Cells firing off in the Canton area
Think he’s missed the chance tonight.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:24 pm to Duke
quote:
That's from the New Orleans NWS. Talking potential tomorrow.
Thanks, I appreciate it.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:24 pm to LSUGrrrl
He would be fine to leave. I think you just want them to stay. 
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:25 pm to LSUGrrrl
Yeah wouldn’t move if I didn’t have too. I have clear view of western sky in Plano and cloud tops are climbing
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:26 pm to TH03
There’s convection to the east and west of DFW. Anything discrete is open to any svrweather option
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:27 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Jacksborough TX as well
It's dropping hail now.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:27 pm to Duke
Looks like hail in all of the cells in that area.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:30 pm to TH03
Serials, it is dead calm in Upshur County. Muggy 73 and just feels dense. Gray as shite. Just really dank. Not a leaf moving. I don't like it. W
This post was edited on 4/17/19 at 6:32 pm
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:34 pm to Duke
That cell looks like it has some rotation
SW quadrant duke
SW quadrant duke
This post was edited on 4/17/19 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:35 pm to TH03
quote:
I think you just want them to stay.
Totally. But I also don’t want them driving in the dark with severe weather popping up around them. Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:45 pm to 50_Tiger
They're going to be rotating a little but so far, not looking like a tornado getting ready to drop.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 6:53 pm to chinhoyang
lix
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