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Message
re: Regarding the heat this September in Baton Rouge
Posted on 9/25/18 at 4:52 pm to Fourteen28
Posted on 9/25/18 at 4:52 pm to Fourteen28
quote:
Any science to back this up?
No. It doesn't matter.
Things like El Nino do and a bunch of complicated set ups concerning practically permenant high and lows in the northern oceans drive the general hot/cold patterns.
Those things aren't clear yet for this winter. The winter forecast is sitting at even chances of hot, cold, and average currently.
1
Posted on 9/25/18 at 4:59 pm to Duke
quote:
Late next week appears to be the target on the computer models. Expecting a low to come off the Rockies and jet across the Midwest. It would likely bring a cold front through here but you know, forecast for 10+ days from now isn't something to bank on.
Didn't they initially predict a cold front to come through late this week and bring nice weather for the weekend? Every time I look at the forecast the high temperature and rain chances keep going up. That doesn't sound like a cold front to me.
Posted on 9/25/18 at 5:08 pm to LouisianaLonghorn
quote:
Didn't they initially predict a cold front to come through late this week and bring nice weather for the weekend? Every time I look at the forecast the high temperature and rain chances keep going up. That doesn't sound like a cold front to me.
They more or less just aren't making it this far SE.
The one for this weekend is now just going to run out of steam once it gets to our area. Then lows that would bring a front down here are either showing up later or going too far north to trail the cold down here.
So we sit perpetually in this get to mid 80s by noon, rain moves in from the south for the PM and dew points in the 70s to keep us above 70 at night.
That being said, with a tropical storm maybe Rollin up into Baja and into the SW USA and a couple of typhoons curving off toward Alaska over the next week or two means quite a bit of uncertainty in projections.
So we'll just sit and sweat till we don't.
Posted on 9/25/18 at 5:11 pm to BurningHeart
quote:
It's because we left the Paris Climate Agreement.
Posted on 9/25/18 at 5:12 pm to Fourteen28
I couldn’t get detailed with the terms, but it’s all based on the location of ridges and troughs. I’ve read much smarter guys than me talk about how cold Octobers correlate with warm January/February’s.
Cold air exists. It’s usually just bottled up somewhere. Usually we’ll get an outbreak or two...sometimes it’s more prolonged. See Christmas to late January last winter. That was a great trough pattern for us.
Again, you’d have to look at anomalies to see how things usually set up, but Mets have said that a good setup now likely wouldn’t hold until Dec - Feb based on history.
ETA: my answer isn’t actually that much different than Dukes. The ridges and troughs are dictated by La Niña/El Nino.
I’m ok with being wrong too. Correct me if needed.
Cold air exists. It’s usually just bottled up somewhere. Usually we’ll get an outbreak or two...sometimes it’s more prolonged. See Christmas to late January last winter. That was a great trough pattern for us.
Again, you’d have to look at anomalies to see how things usually set up, but Mets have said that a good setup now likely wouldn’t hold until Dec - Feb based on history.
ETA: my answer isn’t actually that much different than Dukes. The ridges and troughs are dictated by La Niña/El Nino.
I’m ok with being wrong too. Correct me if needed.
This post was edited on 9/25/18 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 9/25/18 at 5:20 pm to LouisianaLonghorn
quote:
Didn't they initially predict a cold front to come through late this week and bring nice weather for the weekend? Every time I look at the forecast the high temperature and rain chances keep going up. That doesn't sound like a cold front to me
The forecast changed unfortunately
Posted on 9/25/18 at 5:40 pm to Duke
quote:
Things like El Nino do
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