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re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:30 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67170 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:30 pm to
Peej!
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
214074 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:36 pm to
How ya been????? I see you kicking arse in the war thread.
Good work.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:37 pm to
Peej!



Hope all is well with you and yours.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
214074 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:38 pm to
Same to you buddy!!!!! So how you think the BR area will fair????
Posted by Spasweezy
Unfortunately, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2014
7044 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:46 pm to
Hope you’re doing alright! Please no predictions though.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:46 pm to
Most of it should be fine, just worried about that window early morning till near daybreak when the tornado risk is there.

You know, typical severe weather in the south. Somewhere in the highest risk area likely gets severe impacts but not possible to nail it down to a town.

Hope all you get is a bit of rain and some thunder.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
65922 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:49 pm to
That's one of the smallest weather risk zones I think I've seen.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45888 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:50 pm to
What is the best radar app for iPhone? The weather channel’s app sucked before this latest update and now it’s like they are trying to have the worst possible radar available. I need a new one.
Posted by Tigerfan19
Member since Mar 2004
2193 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:51 pm to
Duke
What your thoughts on the Lafayette thru Jeanerette area as for tornados and time frame you think 2-5am?
Thx for all you guys do in these threads
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
214074 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:52 pm to
No worries. I’m out of the weather prediction biz.
Posted by Tigeralum2008
Yankees Fan
Member since Apr 2012
17448 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:55 pm to
quote:

remember we had a derecho roll through BR in 2015. That shite was freaky.


That’s was an incredible weather event. We nicknamed it Hurricane Random
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:56 pm to


quote:

SUMMARY...Conditions are expected to become more favorable for
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, over
the next few hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed to cover
this threat.


quote:

DISCUSSION...The air mass across southern LA continues to recover
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains.
Current surface observations show dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s
across southwest LA into the upper 50s across south-central LA, amid
surface temperatures in the upper 60s. As shown by the 00Z LCH
sounding, these surface conditions do not yet result in
surface-based buoyancy and all of the storms thus far appear to be
rooted between 925 and 850 mb. The more buoyant air currently
remains to the southwest of the region. However, it is expected to
advect northward/northeastward over the next few hours, bringing mid
to upper 60s dewpoints into the area. Surface-based buoyancy is
anticipated as a result of this moisture increase.

In addition to the improving thermodynamics, the kinematic
environment is already quite impressive. Recent KLCH VAD profile
sampled over 400 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Some
convective influence may be ongoing currently due to a nearby
thunderstorm, but low-level curvature has been gradually increasing
over the last few hours.

Given these trends, the potential for supercells capable of all
severe hazards, including tornadoes, is expected to increase over
the next several hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed to
address this increasing threat.


Tornado Watch likely to come out soon.

quote:

What your thoughts on the Lafayette thru Jeanerette area as for tornados and time frame you think 2-5am?



Risk is lower than when you get farther east for tornadoes but it's still there as you can see from above. Timeframe, yeah like 2-5 am seems about right.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67170 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:58 pm to
quote:

What is the best radar app for iPhone? The weather channel’s app sucked before this latest update and now it’s like they are trying to have the worst possible radar available. I need a new one.

If all you want is a radar that will show you the storms and polygons, RadarScope, especially if you're familiar with reading a radar. It doesn't have notifications, though. If you need it to get the warning, pick another one.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

What is the best radar app for iPhone?


Can you read a radar? If so, radarscope is pretty clutch. Having velocity scans is helpful, even if you dont use the dual pol stuff.

Also, I think the weatherbug radar is fine if you just want to see where the rain is and itll notify you of warnings.

Depends on what you need it for.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67170 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

How ya been?????

I've been good, other than a persistent bad back that doesn't seem to want to get back to 100%.
quote:

I see you kicking arse in the war thread.

Appreciate it.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172764 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:04 pm to
Chris Broyles must own stock in the RAP. He named dropped the model in every paragraph of today's spc convective outlook discussion.
Posted by LPLGTiger
Member since May 2013
2377 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:10 pm to
Steady south wind has been picking up here in Youngsville. Not ideal.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67170 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:13 pm to
quote:

Chris Broyles must own stock in the RAP. He named dropped the model in every paragraph of today's spc convective outlook discussion.


I didn't think to look who the met was earlier today who felt the need to drop every WFO abbreviation, and abbreviation only, in his discussion. That shite was annoying. It seemed like he tried to get every office in the area in there, but the only context was the WFO abbreviation. From Oklahoma to Florida it felt like.
This post was edited on 3/17/22 at 11:16 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67170 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:21 pm to
We may end up with a warning South of Elizabeth.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:36 pm to
Still needs to mature a little more. Getting a mesocyclone cooking. Im seeing some signs of small hail in the heaviest rain.

Definately the cell that has my attention currently.
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