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Started By
Message
re: Potential Gulf Storm before Irma (NHC Dropped This)
Posted on 8/31/17 at 9:50 am to CaptainJ47
Posted on 8/31/17 at 9:50 am to CaptainJ47
Models aren't giving it the same chance of development as previous runs. It's looking better for the Gulf Coast.
ETA: rds says otherwise, so I'll defer to him here.
ETA: rds says otherwise, so I'll defer to him here.
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 10:45 am
3
Posted on 8/31/17 at 9:56 am to slackster
That is great! Is it just going to stay South in the BOC?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 9:57 am to slackster
quote:
Models aren't giving it the same chance of development as previous runs. It's looking better for the Gulf Coast.
From my humble observation it seemed like if the models developed this storm and pushed it north to the Gulf Coast, the same conditions would put Irma curving out into the Atlantic. If the models didn't develop this then Irma becomes more of a threat to mainland US
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:09 am to slackster
quote:
Models aren't giving it the same chance of development as previous runs. It's looking better for the Gulf Coast.
Ensemble model genesis probabilities continue to rise. Track is uncertain but the chances of a system forming continue to increase.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:33 am to FelicianaTigerfan
Yea I would pay a good amount of money for that gfs run to be right where a low level TS forms and the front picks it up and sends it Alabama but also sends Irma out to sea
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:38 am to McGregor
quote:
what does NHC 20% mean?
A 20% chance of development in five days time.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:44 am to rds dc
quote:
Ensemble model genesis probabilities continue to rise. Track is uncertain but the chances of a system forming continue to increase.
I guess I should defer to the expert here. The tracks are looking better for TX/LA, but I'd rather not have a storm in the GOM in the first place.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:49 am to slackster
for the meteorological experts... am I wrong in having a slight concern about this potential bastard of Harvey maybe causing an atmospheric trough for Irma to potentially exploit if that big bitch does get past the recurve zone?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:57 am to rt3
quote:
am I wrong in having a slight concern about this potential bastard of Harvey maybe causing an atmospheric trough for Irma to potentially exploit if that big bitch does get past the recurve zone?
Yes.
A former tropical cyclone isn't going to create a big dip in the jet stream.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:05 am to Duke
quote:
Yes.
A former tropical cyclone isn't going to create a big dip in the jet stream.
ok... good to know
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:06 am to rds dc
So I guess Punta Cana is fricked.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 10:27 am to bamarep
So is this guy off the board?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 10:45 am to bamarep
quote:
So I guess Punta Cana is fricked.
You mean Poop a Cana.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 11:05 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
sends it Alabama
Will there be waves in Gulf Shores?
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