Photos reportedly show Russian jets wrecked by mortar fire at Syrian base

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Unverified images circulating on social media, however, seem to fit the bill of destroyed Russian aircraft at Syria's Hmeymim air base. Joseph Dempsey, a research associate for defense analysis at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, posted the images and pointed out that the plane in them had been confirmed to be in Syria. He added that the rainy conditions captured in the photo matched the weather at the time the report said the attack happened.

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It appears Russia most likely fell victim to a guerrilla attack or insurgency — the same kind that has for decades kept the US's superior military and air power from completing missions in the Middle East. Charles Lister, the director of counterterrorism at the Middle East Institute, tweeted two theories about who could have attacked the base: a "localized, very small independent rebel unit active behind enemy lines," or "Ahrar al-Sham's 'special' unit operating covertly in Latakia (has a long track record)." Ahrar al-Sham is a coalition of Islamist fighters that came together to fight against Syria's government, which Russia supports. But an independent rebel unit behind enemy lines could prove just as troubling and hard to root out for Russia.

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