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Started By
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Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:25 pm to yellowfin
quote:
Thankfully I'm in a way better position to take advantage of it this time around
I wish I was, just had a kid, bought a house in the last 2 years, got married, all that shite. Wish I could buy up some stuff though, getting to be that time.
Luckily, I also don't have much at risk!
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:27 pm to stout
Ohio is hurting because coal and then natural gas/oil tanking.
Ohio is already enough of a shithole, they shouldn't be celebrating a downturn.
Ohio is already enough of a shithole, they shouldn't be celebrating a downturn.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:27 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
In what plausible scenario does cheaper gas sink the entire economy?
quote:
However, analysts have warned that prices could now be approaching an inflection point for the US economy, where many oil producers could be at risk of default. Danske Bank described crude price declines as a “risk to the US economy”, as low prices put pressure on the oil sector. While oil investment makes up just 1pc of US GDP, declines last year dragged GDP down 0.4 percentage points. Analysts at the Danish bank believe weak oil could pull down US GDP again this year.
LINK
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:28 pm to stout
quote:
He's in Ohio which is a large steel area. What happens with China is probably a larger concern for him than oil prices.
Well, if the prices fall too low, all that it will do is spur warmongers to start new wars. That's not good for most people.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:31 pm to yellowfin
quote:
I didn't think the real estate market was hurt much back then in Louisiana. At least not near the levels of other places.
There were fewer qualified buyers than previously due to sub-prime loans being done away with and that left a lot of competing inventory. The number of builders and flippers was thinned out no doubt about it. I went from being able to sell a spec as soon as I put the pad down to taking 6 months after completion and several reductions.
You're right in that it wasn't nearly as bad as the rest of the country but a lot of people only remember the extreme cases like Vegas, Florida, Cali, etc. There was still a correction in the local markets that hurt investors and slowed development down. We did rebound faster from it too but the damage was already done for a lot of people.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:37 pm to stout
quote:While large, streel apparently represents 7.2 billion of our 526 billion dollar economy (1.4%). We have a big part of the rest belt for a reason. Luckily, our economy has diversified since then. Other areas should probably learn for these mistakes.
He's in Ohio which is a large steel area. What happens with China is probably a larger concern for him than oil prices.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:39 pm to stout
I'd watch banks close too in the coming 12 months. Once all these over leveraged local companies start defaulting and the equipment is worth pennies on the dollar it was financed for there's gonna be trouble.
When your rental equipment that was financed at 90% LTV has been sitting in the yard for a year not on rent it's tough to make the payments.
When your rental equipment that was financed at 90% LTV has been sitting in the yard for a year not on rent it's tough to make the payments.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:40 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
While large, streel apparently represents 7.2 billion of our 526 billion dollar economy (1.4%). We have a big part of the rest belt for a reason. Luckily, our economy has diversified since then. Other areas should probably learn for these mistakes.
Too bad that most of the U.S. steel goes to the oil industry for rigs, piping, and moving parts. So that 7.2 shrinks if you take oil away.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:40 pm to stout
This thread has been fun to read.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:40 pm to Revelator
quote:Although understandable, I think your views are greatly skewed by your personal experiences in Louisiana. In other words, as bad as it is for Louisiana, that doesn't extend to less energy-centric sectors and economies.
Well, if the prices fall too low, all that it will do is spur warmongers to start new wars. That's not good for most people
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:42 pm to stout
quote:
There were fewer qualified buyers than previously due to sub-prime loans being done away with and that left a lot of competing inventory. The number of builders and flippers was thinned out no doubt about it. I went from being able to sell a spec as soon as I put the pad down to taking 6 months after completion and several reductions.
You're right in that it wasn't nearly as bad as the rest of the country but a lot of people only remember the extreme cases like Vegas, Florida, Cali, etc. There was still a correction in the local markets that hurt investors and slowed development down. We did rebound faster from it too but the damage was already done for a lot of people.
Make no mistake about it, the cratering price of crude (gas always follows) threatens the LC economy the same way. If the spread is not large enough no one is going to liquify and ship anything. Even if they do finding buyers in a glutted market with tightening credit should begin to sound familiar to you.
Being all in in a petro economy area right now is a very dangerous place to be. JMHO
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:42 pm to fisherbm1112
quote:And costs in a lot of the other industries are kept down which increases the probability for growth. Not to mention, the average consumer has more income to spend, save, and invest. It's a net positive for most, but not all.
Too bad that most of the U.S. steel goes to the oil industry for rigs, piping, and moving parts. So that 7.2 shrinks if you take oil away.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:43 pm to JEAUXBLEAUX
quote:
Great news. Lower gas to a buck
That's the thing. You're not gonna see this, at least for a good while.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:43 pm to fisherbm1112
quote:
Too bad that most of the U.S. steel goes to the oil industry for rigs, piping, and moving parts. So that 7.2 shrinks if you take oil away.
This type of post is why this thread is amusing. I mean come on, he literally just recognized this and you decide to point it out like you're some genius.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:44 pm to Crawdaddy
quote:
So when will all the high prices due to oil finally come down? Like groceries, services that rely on fuel, etc.
I work in the transportation business. I'll tell ya, we make a hell of a lot more money when gas is up. It's cutting my #'s.
But i still get paid good so I'm fine with that.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:45 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And costs in a lot of tb other industries are kept down which increases the probability for growth. Not to mention, the average consumer has more income to spend, save, and invest. It's a net positive for most, but not all.
Yea not when the ripple from the previously mentioned reaches their industry. People seem to have a hard time admitting in this country how much we truly rely on oil.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:45 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Although understandable, I think your views are greatly skewed by your personal experiences in Louisiana. In other words, as bad as it is for Louisiana, that doesn't extend to less energy-centric sectors and economies.
I'd say it's somewhat pertinent to countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia (see past week) and Russia, whose economies are solely dependent on oil (and gas).
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:46 pm to saintforlife
This is fricking depressing
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:47 pm to fisherbm1112
quote:What? We rely on oil, but oil is often a COST. Therefore, many industries can rely on oil, but at a lesser cost.
Yea not when the ripple from the previously mentioned reaches their industry. People seem to have a hard time admitting in this country how much we truly rely on oil.
I'm really confused but some of these arguments.
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