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re: Oil dive deepens to 12-year low; could hit $20 on China fears

Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:24 pm to
Posted by yellowfin
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
99043 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:24 pm to
I didn't think the real estate market was hurt much back then in Louisiana. At least not near the levels of other places.



But I didn't live here either
Posted by Theboot32
Mandeville/Poplarville
Member since Jan 2016
2454 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

Thankfully I'm in a way better position to take advantage of it this time around


I wish I was, just had a kid, bought a house in the last 2 years, got married, all that shite. Wish I could buy up some stuff though, getting to be that time.

Luckily, I also don't have much at risk!
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 9:27 pm
Posted by hendersonshands
Univ. of Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Member since Oct 2007
160203 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:27 pm to
Ohio is hurting because coal and then natural gas/oil tanking.


Ohio is already enough of a shithole, they shouldn't be celebrating a downturn.
Posted by The First Cut
Member since Apr 2012
14817 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

In what plausible scenario does cheaper gas sink the entire economy?


quote:

However, analysts have warned that prices could now be approaching an inflection point for the US economy, where many oil producers could be at risk of default. Danske Bank described crude price declines as a “risk to the US economy”, as low prices put pressure on the oil sector. While oil investment makes up just 1pc of US GDP, declines last year dragged GDP down 0.4 percentage points. Analysts at the Danish bank believe weak oil could pull down US GDP again this year.


LINK
Posted by Revelator
Member since Nov 2008
62313 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:28 pm to
quote:

He's in Ohio which is a large steel area. What happens with China is probably a larger concern for him than oil prices.


Well, if the prices fall too low, all that it will do is spur warmongers to start new wars. That's not good for most people.
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
184600 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:31 pm to
quote:

I didn't think the real estate market was hurt much back then in Louisiana. At least not near the levels of other places.




There were fewer qualified buyers than previously due to sub-prime loans being done away with and that left a lot of competing inventory. The number of builders and flippers was thinned out no doubt about it. I went from being able to sell a spec as soon as I put the pad down to taking 6 months after completion and several reductions.

You're right in that it wasn't nearly as bad as the rest of the country but a lot of people only remember the extreme cases like Vegas, Florida, Cali, etc. There was still a correction in the local markets that hurt investors and slowed development down. We did rebound faster from it too but the damage was already done for a lot of people.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

He's in Ohio which is a large steel area. What happens with China is probably a larger concern for him than oil prices.
While large, streel apparently represents 7.2 billion of our 526 billion dollar economy (1.4%). We have a big part of the rest belt for a reason. Luckily, our economy has diversified since then. Other areas should probably learn for these mistakes.
Posted by yellowfin
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
99043 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:39 pm to
I'd watch banks close too in the coming 12 months. Once all these over leveraged local companies start defaulting and the equipment is worth pennies on the dollar it was financed for there's gonna be trouble.


When your rental equipment that was financed at 90% LTV has been sitting in the yard for a year not on rent it's tough to make the payments.
Posted by fisherbm1112
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2010
6573 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

While large, streel apparently represents 7.2 billion of our 526 billion dollar economy (1.4%). We have a big part of the rest belt for a reason. Luckily, our economy has diversified since then. Other areas should probably learn for these mistakes.




Too bad that most of the U.S. steel goes to the oil industry for rigs, piping, and moving parts. So that 7.2 shrinks if you take oil away.
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18419 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:40 pm to
This thread has been fun to read.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

Well, if the prices fall too low, all that it will do is spur warmongers to start new wars. That's not good for most people
Although understandable, I think your views are greatly skewed by your personal experiences in Louisiana. In other words, as bad as it is for Louisiana, that doesn't extend to less energy-centric sectors and economies.
Posted by cave canem
pullarius dominus
Member since Oct 2012
12186 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:42 pm to
quote:

There were fewer qualified buyers than previously due to sub-prime loans being done away with and that left a lot of competing inventory. The number of builders and flippers was thinned out no doubt about it. I went from being able to sell a spec as soon as I put the pad down to taking 6 months after completion and several reductions.

You're right in that it wasn't nearly as bad as the rest of the country but a lot of people only remember the extreme cases like Vegas, Florida, Cali, etc. There was still a correction in the local markets that hurt investors and slowed development down. We did rebound faster from it too but the damage was already done for a lot of people.



Make no mistake about it, the cratering price of crude (gas always follows) threatens the LC economy the same way. If the spread is not large enough no one is going to liquify and ship anything. Even if they do finding buyers in a glutted market with tightening credit should begin to sound familiar to you.

Being all in in a petro economy area right now is a very dangerous place to be. JMHO
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:42 pm to
quote:

Too bad that most of the U.S. steel goes to the oil industry for rigs, piping, and moving parts. So that 7.2 shrinks if you take oil away.
And costs in a lot of the other industries are kept down which increases the probability for growth. Not to mention, the average consumer has more income to spend, save, and invest. It's a net positive for most, but not all.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 9:45 pm
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26632 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

Great news. Lower gas to a buck


That's the thing. You're not gonna see this, at least for a good while.
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18419 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:43 pm to
quote:




Too bad that most of the U.S. steel goes to the oil industry for rigs, piping, and moving parts. So that 7.2 shrinks if you take oil away.




This type of post is why this thread is amusing. I mean come on, he literally just recognized this and you decide to point it out like you're some genius.
Posted by Codythetiger
Arkansas
Member since Nov 2006
30486 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:44 pm to
quote:

So when will all the high prices due to oil finally come down? Like groceries, services that rely on fuel, etc.


I work in the transportation business. I'll tell ya, we make a hell of a lot more money when gas is up. It's cutting my #'s.

But i still get paid good so I'm fine with that.
Posted by fisherbm1112
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2010
6573 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

And costs in a lot of tb other industries are kept down which increases the probability for growth. Not to mention, the average consumer has more income to spend, save, and invest. It's a net positive for most, but not all.




Yea not when the ripple from the previously mentioned reaches their industry. People seem to have a hard time admitting in this country how much we truly rely on oil.
Posted by mattz1122
Member since Oct 2007
56719 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

Although understandable, I think your views are greatly skewed by your personal experiences in Louisiana. In other words, as bad as it is for Louisiana, that doesn't extend to less energy-centric sectors and economies.



I'd say it's somewhat pertinent to countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia (see past week) and Russia, whose economies are solely dependent on oil (and gas).
Posted by tigersownall
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2011
17209 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:46 pm to
This is fricking depressing
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 1/11/16 at 9:47 pm to
quote:

Yea not when the ripple from the previously mentioned reaches their industry. People seem to have a hard time admitting in this country how much we truly rely on oil.
What? We rely on oil, but oil is often a COST. Therefore, many industries can rely on oil, but at a lesser cost.

I'm really confused but some of these arguments.
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