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re: Oil dive deepens to 12-year low; could hit $20 on China fears
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:23 pm to TigersHuskers
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:23 pm to TigersHuskers
quote:
What are the chances we ever see oil over $100 a barrel again in the future.
Pretty, damn, good - almost assuredly if drillers and producers start going belly-up due to the current lull.
0
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:23 pm to redstick13
Sorry, redstick, the plan is already in place.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:25 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
Yeah, I think people claiming we won't ever see $100 oil again are extremely short sighted, or have wayyyy more faith in us being intelligent. We are too economically volatile in energy not even counting that most of the oil in this world is in some of the most politically volatile areas of the world. We are in an extreme glut. Doesn't mean that we won't end up at the other end of the spectrum. Now companies may have learned their lesson to not leverage themselves so hard against $100 oil to the point that if it falls, they hurt this badly. But, that doesn't make a difference to the price of oil. We are hurting right now because we've built this industry up over the last 7 or so years to need $80+ dollar oil. That is the issue. It's just thinning right now.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:26 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
What's UAE's break even?
I believe Saudi is around $10 and the rest of the ME in the $20 range. Break even here in Cameroon is mid $20.
I'm very nervous.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:27 pm to Oates Mustache
I have skills tho. I grew up on a rice farm. 
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:28 pm to redstick13
shite, no wonder the Saudis don't give a crap.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:28 pm to redstick13
You have to ask yellowfin if you'll cut you in on his portion of the thirds.
Personally I'm looking forward to the brisk California weather.
Personally I'm looking forward to the brisk California weather.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:31 pm to TigersHuskers
quote:
oil was cheap in the 90's and people survived, why is it that now we need to have it around $100 a barrel?
We don't need it at $100/barrel. Hell, a lot of people in O&G would kill for it to stay at $60ish and rise with inflation.
As for your quip about the 1990s, there are many reasons it is not sustainable at those levels. First of all, oil has become much more expensive to get out of the ground, so the breakeven point is much higher. Secondly, oil is priced in dollars so you have to factor inflation into your numbers.
Oil is currently trading at $30/bbl. It started the 1990s at $38.59/bbl and got as high as $49.70 (12/1990) and as low as $14.27 (12/1998) after adjusting for inflation. We are well within the 1990s levels and that doesn't even begin to take into account the higher breakeven levels.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:32 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Personally I'm looking forward to the brisk California weather.
You pay a hefty tax for them. I worked there for 6 months in 2013. You definitely notice the added tax strain.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:35 pm to slackster
Thanks. So I guess the optimal price right now would be between $45 and 60?
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:36 pm to TigersHuskers
$60 would be keeping most people happy.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 3:38 pm to Oates Mustache
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have everyone pay a $550 a year tax that goes towards funding O&G workers' lifestyles? You could then pay over 2 million people $100k.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:26 pm to TigersHuskers
quote:
Thanks. So I guess the optimal price right now would be between $45 and 60?
No. That's still low. The optimal range would be $65-$85 for oil and in the $4 range for natural gas.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:40 pm to saintforlife
China being scared is a good thing.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:42 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have everyone pay a $550 a year tax that goes towards funding O&G workers' lifestyles? You could then pay over 2 million people $100k.
I'm fine with that but you'll need to pay me more than 100k
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:53 pm to LSUChamp06
quote:
The optimal range would be $65-$85 for oil and in the $4 range for natural gas.
Maybe we should have the government mandate these prices.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:53 pm to Duzz
quote:
China being scared is a good thing.
Why?
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:54 pm to yellowfin
Fin, don't you worry about that. We'll make bank in Cali Crawfishin.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 5:01 pm to Oates Mustache
Good luck. Those hippy frickers will have you losing your minds. Did you see the video of the messican pulling that stingray off the beach?
Posted on 1/12/16 at 5:09 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Fin, don't you worry about that. We'll make bank in Cali Crawfishin.
we'll need start up money, probably some kinda govt grant available to get started then with all the farming subsidies we'll be rich
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