- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Score Board
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- SEC Score Board
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Odds of guessing a card back to back?
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:18 pm to theantiquetiger
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:18 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:
Question is what are the odds of this happening? Is it 1:52 because the picks are independent of each other or is it 1:104, or ever greater?
Closer to 1: 2500.
ETA: someone actually did the math, although assuming the deck was reshuffled.
If not, it is 1:2652
This post was edited on 8/11/17 at 10:25 pm
0
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:19 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:
That's changing what we did. I pulled a card, they guessed it correctly (1/52). I said try it again and they were correct (1/52).
But that doesn't change the fact that you asked what were the odds of getting two correct in a row.
The fact that it is made up of independent events is irrelevant.
This post was edited on 8/11/17 at 10:21 pm
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:23 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:
The odds of rolling a 10 is 1:38. The odds of a 10 being rolled on next spin is still 1:38 because the spins are independent of each other.
They aren't independent of each other. The second attempt is dependent on the first attempt being right. And the other way around.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:56 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:Do you think the odds of guessing a card, say, 1000 times in a row is 1:52?
I still believe it is only 1:52 because the picks are independent of each other.
There's your answer.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:58 pm to shel311
I like how he comes to the OT to ask a question, but defends one side of it.
Looks like we were used as a third party to settle an argument....and the OP lost.
Looks like we were used as a third party to settle an argument....and the OP lost.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:59 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:Well that's different than your OP question.
That's changing what we did. I pulled a card, they guessed it correctly (1/52). I said try it again and they were correct (1/52). I didn't ask them to pick the next two cards I pull out of two full decks.
Yes, if you try and try and try and he finally guesses right the 1st time, then at that point the odds of him guessing it correctly a 2nd time is 1 in 52.
But the odds of guessing right 2 times in a row is not 1 in 52. Huge difference.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:54 am to theantiquetiger
quote:With that logic, you'd have the same odds to pick the correct cards one billion times in a row as you would to pick the correct cards once.
I still believe it is only 1:52 because the picks are independent of each other.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:58 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:00 am to theantiquetiger
quote:
The odds of rolling a 10 is 1:38. The odds of a 10 being rolled on next spin is still 1:38 because the spins are independent of each other.
Correct, but the odds that BOTH will be 10 are 1/38*1/38 or 1/1444.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:01 am to theantiquetiger
quote:
Is it 1:52 because the picks are independent of each other or is it 1:104, or ever greater?
Man, you're not very smart.
Page 3 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News