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Started By
Message
re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:01 pm to nola000
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:01 pm to nola000
Wasn’t it bad design based on mischaracterization of soils during the geotechnical analysis? Basically it was peat when they thought it was clay?
1
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:04 pm to jimbeam
Pretty good 2018 The Advocate article on Old River Control Structure.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:10 pm to nola000
quote:
My best friend lives in the Olympic Peninsula and they've had more snow than many of the old-timers can remember.
My sister lives in the San Juans. That side of the mountains rarely gets much snow. This year is an outlier.
quote:
Typical government inefficiency and oversight.
Government may be inefficient, but trying to cope with changing climatic conditions on a continental scale would be a daunting task for any entity. This is the first time in human history we've had the capacity to even try it. Heretofore there would be a big die off and the survivors picked up the pieces.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:10 pm to TDsngumbo
53.5 feet in Paducah Kentucky (My home). They've closed the bridge at Cairo Illinois due to water over the road. Expected to reopen March 8th. Harrahs Casino in Metropolis Illinois is flooded....closed down. It's bad.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:10 pm to Halftrack
quote:
The cynic in me thinks that those investing in the chem plants wouldn’t do so unless they believed that it would hold.
I don't disagree. It's done well so far, despite a couple of scares, and there's a whole lot riding on it. It's fighting gravity though, and at some point in the future gravity will win. Not there's much reason to think it's going to happen soon.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:18 pm to Duke
In 1973 they had dumptrucks lined up one after the other dumping rocks in to keep it from scouring out under the control structure.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:25 pm to nola000
quote:
I watched a program a few years back about the shifting pattern of polar vortexes caused by rising global temperatures
I can tell you this hypothesis is far from settled, as rising temps are going to have opposing effects on polar vortex disruptions.
quote:
My best friend lives in the Olympic Peninsula and they've had more snow than many of the old-timers can remember.
It's also part of why the Ohio River has been dumped on. Effectively a dip in the jet stream has been sitting over the western US for all of February. It's brought the cold and storms through. Lows end up riding along the edge, and riding toward Oklahoma/Texas off the rockies. The warm down here has been thanks to a warm high out SE.
So all these systems have found their path cutting up toward the lakes from Texas and then pushing east. Bringing a whole lot of moisture up to the Ohio Valley each time.
quote:
All the control structures and levees are designed for what we know about Mississippi River flow garnered over the past couple hundred years. If long-term weather patterns shift that infrastructure can become obsolete and create a huge disaster.
I'm not sure there's going to be major long term pattern changes, but you get set ups like this one with a warmer background and you get more rain falling. So when a bad pattern sets up upstream, it would dump more rain than otherwise.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:25 pm to TDsngumbo
We're in the south and we're Cajuns. So all we need is a pirough and some gumbo and frick everything.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:27 pm to nola000
The guy I was responding to was talking about the danger of a loose barge or ship damaging a levee and causing a breach. He mentioned the barge photo taken after Katrina. I was pointing out that it was a floodwall failure that progressed into a levee failure. It's two components forming a combined flood protection system.
The 17th St Canal and London Ave Canal breaches also started as floodwall failures. There's been a ton of debate about the floodwall design - I wall vs T wall, construction work, construction inspection and ongoing maintenance. One aspect is unlikely to be completely responsible for the disaster. More likely, all phases had some negative impact and combined to bring about the Katrina flooding.
But to my original point: A loose ship or barge is more dangerous to a floodwall, particularly an I wall, than an earthen levee (or a T wall).
The 17th St Canal and London Ave Canal breaches also started as floodwall failures. There's been a ton of debate about the floodwall design - I wall vs T wall, construction work, construction inspection and ongoing maintenance. One aspect is unlikely to be completely responsible for the disaster. More likely, all phases had some negative impact and combined to bring about the Katrina flooding.
But to my original point: A loose ship or barge is more dangerous to a floodwall, particularly an I wall, than an earthen levee (or a T wall).
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:30 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
The Mississippi River flows about 700,000 cubic feet per second at max,
Depends on where you are.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:31 pm to TDsngumbo
I thought what mattered was discharge, not river height. The system can handle 2.7 mcfs at Vicksburg. The present discharge there is 1.5.
There’s a hell of a lot of cushion here unless I’m missing something.
There’s a hell of a lot of cushion here unless I’m missing something.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:35 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
It'll never happen
I am guessing those who were next to the Low Sill Structure in 1973 would strongly disagree.
You can build and build and build and still miss the point of least resistance.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:36 pm to JudgeHolden
I think the actual "trigger" is flow rate. They open the Bonnet Carre at 1.25 million cuft/sec.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:38 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
I thought what mattered was discharge, not river height
River height is going to track with discharge. 45' is the level of concern in BR because that's when the flow rates are getting too high.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:39 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
I thought what mattered was discharge, not river height. The system can handle 2.7 mcfs at Vicksburg. The present discharge there is 1.5.
There’s a hell of a lot of cushion here unless I’m missing something.
For some perspective...
quote:
Historic Crests
(1) 57.10 ft on 05/19/2011
(2) 56.20 ft on 05/04/1927
(3) 53.20 ft on 02/21/1937
(4) 52.80 ft on 06/06/1929
(5) 52.50 ft on 04/28/1922
(6) 51.60 ft on 05/13/1973
(7) 51.50 ft on 02/15/1916
(8) 51.00 ft on 04/20/2008
Really depends on how much rain keeps falling (and snow melting) upstream.
This post was edited on 2/22/19 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:40 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
Maybe a mass exodus of NOLA refugees back from BR to NOLA?
Houston because the water would cut off the I-10 to New Orleans. Texas will take our best and brightest citizens again and as we said after Hurricane Katrina "God Bless Texas!"
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:44 pm to NYNolaguy1
I remember 2011. That was the second time they opened Morganza.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:48 pm to Mudminnow
quote:
isn't that kind of early to crest
Shut up, Al Gore.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:53 pm to White Roach
To all of those wondering about "stopping" the flow of water through a lever breach, it's much easier said than done.
The flow through the 17th St Canal breach didn't stop until the water level in tbe city equalized will the level of Lake Ponchartrain. It didn't matter how many bulk bags got dropped into the breach, the water kept flowing. If the Mississippi River makes the jump to the Atchafalaya Basin, there will be no stopping it.
110 years or so ago, engineers diverted water from the Colorado River to irrigate farmlands in the Imperial Valley. The canal were silting up and impeding flow, so someone had the brilliant idea of opening a small breach in the river levee to provide irrigation until the canals were deepened. The river liked the new and easier route and formed what is now call the Salton Sea.
It took two years to get the river back into it's banks and involved an enormous railroad trestle that allowed trainloads of rock to be dumped almost continuously. I don't know if we have enough rocks to make that happen with the Mississippi River.
The flow through the 17th St Canal breach didn't stop until the water level in tbe city equalized will the level of Lake Ponchartrain. It didn't matter how many bulk bags got dropped into the breach, the water kept flowing. If the Mississippi River makes the jump to the Atchafalaya Basin, there will be no stopping it.
110 years or so ago, engineers diverted water from the Colorado River to irrigate farmlands in the Imperial Valley. The canal were silting up and impeding flow, so someone had the brilliant idea of opening a small breach in the river levee to provide irrigation until the canals were deepened. The river liked the new and easier route and formed what is now call the Salton Sea.
It took two years to get the river back into it's banks and involved an enormous railroad trestle that allowed trainloads of rock to be dumped almost continuously. I don't know if we have enough rocks to make that happen with the Mississippi River.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:54 pm to TigerFanatic99
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 4:02 pm
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