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re: Marathon Oil Refinery on fire in Texas City

Posted on 6/15/25 at 7:24 pm to
Posted by Snoop Dawg
Member since Sep 2009
2849 posts
Posted on 6/15/25 at 7:24 pm to
quote:

$4 a gallon coming soon to a city near you.


Deal!

I am currently vacationing in the Sierras.
Posted by Ipissexcellence
Member since Dec 2018
447 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 4:51 am to
quote:

SWLA92 I remember you saying you have a crawfish farm. What would you say your profit is annually per acre? Can you do it with just 30 acres or is there an economy of scale? I'm interested in it. Always have been. One of those traffic thoughts I get. If one buys 30 acres and develops a farm, how long until you'd recoup your initial investment in profit?


Sir this is Wendys
Posted by Cuz413
Member since Nov 2007
10013 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 5:31 am to
quote:

My guess is the hydrogen connection where the "spark" occurred.


At high enough temperature (above 700 degF IIRC), even crude and resid can auto ignite
Posted by AwgustaDawg
CSRA
Member since Jan 2023
13451 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 5:34 am to
Hell the sun is going to come up today, there is an oil or chemical plant somewhere on the gulf coast on fire or exploding or otherwise not behaving in a civil fashion...its just another day in the neighborhood.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76426 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 10:04 am to
quote:

They’ll just send heavies someplace else in the process or store it until the RHU is online again right?


Assuming they have the capability. Doubt it makes financial sense in either case.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
20583 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 10:10 am to
I have always heard/been told $1K an acre profit is a decent average to go with. That was a guy running his own traps though.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
13978 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

Assuming they have the capability. Doubt it makes financial sense in either case.


Of course, they have that capability. A coker should be able to take it and there are lots of them within easy barge distance. VLO was importing heavies from Russia pre 2022.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76426 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 12:40 pm to
Backwardation of carrying coker feed is easily losing 2-5/bbl a month over the next few months. Not to mention +250k/d for floating storage.

Them trying to move 30-50KB of coker feed, even on the gulf coast, is going to tank that market, if they can move that much. They will be selling for less than bunker/fuel at that rate.

I will say I don't know what this material looks like, so if they can get it to cracker feed levels they might have something. The resid fraction will probably kill the pricing and just point to reduced runs.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
13978 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

I will say I don't know what this material looks like, so if they can get it to cracker feed levels they might have something. The resid fraction will probably kill the pricing and just point to reduced runs.


I am left wondering if Garyville might want it. That is a heavy crude refinery which has only been profitable due Mars feedstock (because of its high residual content) the last few years per my contact in Findlay, for other projects I am working with them on
This post was edited on 6/16/25 at 1:36 pm
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76426 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 1:46 pm to
They have been buying some coker feed as has XOM BR.

Not sure how much extra capacity they have to absorb the market.

Knowing Marathon has issue will not help their price.
Posted by RemyLeBeau
Member since Mar 2015
1813 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

I will say I don't know what this material looks like, so if they can get it to cracker feed levels they might have something.


Its basically vac resid. Blending it to No. 6 fuel oil/ bunker oil was a way to handle excess feed in the past. I don't know what regs are in place now that might stop them from blending to sell for fuel oil (heavy sulfur content)
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
4606 posts
Posted on 6/16/25 at 3:16 pm to
After all expenses like land note, labor, bait and fuel. I would say pure profit on average is around $250 an acre give or take. Some years might be more some might be less but that’s a good average.
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