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re: Let's Do It Again: Severe Threat 3/30 - Line of Severe Storms leaving SELA. AL in it now

Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:01 pm to
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
41432 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:01 pm to
App is showing heavy window tomorrow (no surprise there) but no rain. Will this be individual cells firing off or should we expect a line to move through?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66801 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:22 pm to
You will actually have a chance to see both.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
41432 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:23 pm to
Yay?
Posted by schwartzy
New Orleans
Member since May 2014
9620 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:25 pm to
I went to Hattiesburg and Laurel last week. I have to say that although I didn’t see much the atmosphere was definitely juiced up. I would see dark clouds in areas of rotation, heavy rain, and then sunshine all in a matter of minutes. It was incredible
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66801 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:27 pm to
That's definitely an interesting look heading into MS. The 18z-21z window could get hairy.
This post was edited on 3/28/22 at 5:30 pm
Posted by schwartzy
New Orleans
Member since May 2014
9620 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:27 pm to
Do we expect much discrete cell action again at this time?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66801 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

much the atmosphere was definitely juiced up

And it is "just March".
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66801 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:29 pm to
quote:

Do we expect much discrete cell action again at this time?

A broken line looks to be the more likely scenario. But the farther North you go into MS, the chance for some discrete development gets better.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:35 pm to
quote:

Do we expect much discrete cell action again at this time?


Not as much as was expected last go round, though breaks in the line could let some individual cells get working.
Posted by Sao
East Texas Piney Woods
Member since Jun 2009
68123 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:46 pm to

Are you able to choose the time on that radar? What's it look like if you roll it back say 4 hours
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:48 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66801 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

Are you able to choose the time on that radar? What's it look like if you roll it back say 4 hours

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 6:00 pm to
I again want to hit on the winds ahead of the line. They could well knock out power without any storms happening. They gonna be ripping on Wednesday, and if any of the winds above the ground get mixing due to sunshine mixing the boundary layer...could be getting 50+ mph gusts.

Don't be surprised by this.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66801 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 6:03 pm to
Yeah, the wind gust map is nasty. Some 60s showing up ahead of the line and they last until it progresses well into AL.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66801 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 6:05 pm to
And, as if they were waiting for the perfect timing of your post:

@NWSHuntsville
quote:

5 Day Outlook: Warm weather will continue Tue-Wed. Very windy conditions on Wed w/gusts of 35-50 mph possible. Then, a strong cold front will bring a line of thunderstorms through the area late Wed afternoon/evening with damaging winds possible. #HUNwx LINK
This post was edited on 3/28/22 at 6:07 pm
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
14654 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 6:40 pm to
let's not forget the NOLA tornado was in the slight risk area last week, don't be complacent because you aren't in the middle of the bullseye
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 8:55 pm to
quote:

don't be complacent

With 3 severe threats within a 12 day window and the first 2 not really matriculating in BR, people I talk to aren’t really taking this one serious. Hopefully the big story is just some wind down here
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

With 3 severe threats within a 12 day window and the first 2 not really matriculating in BR, people I talk to aren’t really taking this one serious. Hopefully the big story is just some wind down here



That's not shocking, and this one at least should have a lower ceiling.

Of course, straight line wind threats tend to be more widespread in impacts but the risk of the really high winds is going to be maximized a little further north.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
65865 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 10:17 pm to
A side question about the SPC. Why do they typically only issue one update a day and why is it usually released in the middle of the night?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 3/28/22 at 10:22 pm to
quote:

Why do they typically only issue one update a day and why is it usually released in the middle of the night?


IDK.

I kind of understand one update a day before Day 1. There's not a lot of significant changes in the synoptic scale stuff at this point and you dont really trust the high res stuff until youre in that 24 hour window and get some confirmation the initial conditions are good.

But...

730z is such a weird release time. That I have no idea the why.
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