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re: Let's Do It Again: Severe Threat 3/30 - Line of Severe Storms leaving SELA. AL in it now

Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:14 pm to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36409 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:14 pm to
The Mississippi tornado threat is a different question and that might need to happen with more model support.

I was getting at a southern extension of the moderate, which I dont see justification for at this point.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45906 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:15 pm to
quote:

No justification on the wind risk.

I’m so damn confused now. Are we not getting high winds ahead of the line tomorrow in sela now? Or are we but the line itself won’t have high winds? Or both?


Edit: nevermind, I get what you’re saying now
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 11:17 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36409 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:16 pm to
Slow your roll. High winds are gonna happen ahead of the storms and there is a decent risk of getting some 70+ mph gusts in LA. Nothing has changed on that.

Im discussing raising the risk to the south, and I just dont see where the increase in probabilities would be justified.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67231 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:23 pm to
Duke, can I get some help on the hodos on these soundings?





I've seen them out of the field before, but never like that. Those are from North/Central MS, and every one I pulled was like that.
Posted by wfallstiger
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jun 2006
13726 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:23 pm to
And we are done in the Falls...brief heavy rain, clap or two of thunder...supposed to be cooler and windy tomorrow

Stay safe
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67231 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:24 pm to
quote:

I was getting at a southern extension of the moderate, which I dont see justification for at this point.

I gotcha, and I agree.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67231 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

And we are done in the Falls...brief heavy rain, clap or two of thunder...supposed to be cooler and windy tomorrow

Hopefully, ours can be that uneventful.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36409 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:27 pm to
Hit up pivotal, they scale the graph to the hodo size.

Also, just wow on the length of those. Discrete cell storm motions would be interstate speeds with those winds.

COD has storm relative hodos for the RAP now. Very helpful as well with Cameron Nixon's blog post about using those.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172830 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:40 pm to
Monroe. Saucy

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67231 posts
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:53 pm to
I'm wondering if the storm speed may be too much for updrafts to really get going in the North MS area? Speeds seem more reasonable farther South in SE MS into SW AL. Just thinking.

Also, we seem to be staying more capped in my area (North AL). The cells out front die out fairly quickly, then we get the line with the embedded risk. There's going to be a window there for those cells to get going.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 11:56 pm
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
6897 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:01 am to
Worth trying to shoehorn both cars in the garage in Dallas? Any hail or just rain?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67231 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:04 am to
Not a big hail threat with this one, but don't hold me accountable if the one bad spot for hail winds up over your house.
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
6897 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:15 am to
Appreciate it. Were in Dallas proper so we very rarely get the crazy stuff that happens out in the suburbs but I can't really run down and move them if it kicks up at 2am.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67231 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:16 am to
Western Missouri:

Posted by wfallstiger
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jun 2006
13726 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:20 am to
I sure hope so
Posted by wfallstiger
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jun 2006
13726 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:21 am to
Just rain. Nothing warned
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
6897 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:39 am to
Wind picking up bigtime here in Dallas
Posted by red sox fan 13
Valley Park
Member since Aug 2018
17214 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:45 am to
quote:

Well I’m wearing a PFG which is a fishing shirt so that’s why it didn’t make sense
The joke here on TD is that baws wear PFG to church because they think it’s their Sunday best
Posted by red sox fan 13
Valley Park
Member since Aug 2018
17214 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:46 am to
When should this move through EBR? Mid to late afternoon?
Posted by Wishnitwas1998
where TN, MS, and AL meet
Member since Oct 2010
61801 posts
Posted on 3/30/22 at 12:47 am to
quote:

Damn. Early dismissal for area Memphis Catholic schools


If only we hadn’t made this thread /s
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