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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:52 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:52 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Why would they need to do this? The onus is on the humanitarian group to mark their vehicles in a sufficient manner so as to be obvious that they are the opposite of a military target.
Devil's advocate: Russia hasn't really been that reliable on not firing at humanitarian vehicles/convoys. They likely hit one today that cause significant casualties. Them shooting first an asking questions later could very well become a problem at some point.
I believe efforts will be made to try to avoid that shitshow, but you never know.
The routine attacks on humanitarian evac efforts by Russia, if verified (and there is a whole lot of smoke) is the likeliest issue that may be chalked up as a war crime. When it is taken into account that Russia, too, agreed upon those humanitarian corridors only to renege on the deal, that is a problem.
I know that last paragraph got a little off topic, but it was on my mind.
0
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:53 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
You would know better than I would. I suspect, though, that given sufficient motivation we would have the resources to observe trucks at supply depots and track those trucks to the border and beyond.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:53 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Likewise, I suspect the reason that the MiG deal went down in flames (pun intended) was because he has made it known through the back channels that that is his red line.
That whole thing was handled poorly and should have never played out in the public domain.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:55 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Does Russia consider a US cargo plane parked on a Polish airfield to be a legitimate target?
I’m sure he would like to, but as I said earlier, he’s willing to turn a blind eye to that.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:55 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
If that report is accurate, Russia said shipments to Ukraine, not in Ukraine, which at least implies a threat to widen the war outside Ukraine s borders. Does Russia consider a US cargo plane parked on a Polish airfield to be a legitimate target? That's one way to read the statement.
That “to” could just be a garbled translation. But that’s what scares me too. Putin could say “Don’t even drive them to the border, or we will destroy them.” At which point he has drawn a line in the sand himself and NATO would counter with their own line in the sand of “Don’t attack shipments on the NATO side of the border.”
At which point either one or both sides will back down, or one side will cross the line first and now it is finally World War III.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:56 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
You would know better than I would. I suspect, though, that given sufficient motivation we would have the resources to observe trucks at supply depots and track those trucks to the border and beyond.
In the grand scheme of things, it still wouldn't matter. If you cross the border into Ukraine with equipment bound for the battlefield (i.e. not a humanitarian mission) you become a legitimate target. Say we do observe the strike that would occur, what then? Do we play the victim and act as though we didn't legitimately earn that strike?
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:57 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
widen the war outside Ukraine s
There are 70-75 thousand NATO troops mobilized on the border in Latvia, Poland and Romania. Its not a defensive force if you look at the units arrayed. Mr. Putin is talking shite.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 6:59 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
quote:
threatening that Russia will view Western military aid shipments to Ukraine as legitimate military targets on March 12.
Ummm, as long as they’re inside Ukrainian territory, why wouldn’t they be?
It sounded from another snippet as if they were threatening a naval blockade.
My non-expert opinion is that wouldn't end well, either.
"those in peril on the sea"
This post was edited on 3/12/22 at 7:05 pm
Posted on 3/12/22 at 7:02 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I suspect, though, that given sufficient motivation we would have the resources to observe trucks at supply depots and track those trucks to the border and beyond.
You’re right, but that would require significant resources even by our standards. Especially when you have plenty of other things you could be looking at with those assets. But correct, it’s not impossible
Posted on 3/12/22 at 7:02 pm to LegendInMyMind
My point was about humanitarian vs military convoys and telling the difference.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 7:20 pm to UndercoverBryologist
quote:
What I always worried about was Putin ignoring the boundaries of established norms regarding neutrality and the shipment of arms supplies on the NATO side of the Ukrainian border as legitimate targets.
I initially thought the statement was mostly about ships in international waters.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 7:23 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
My point was about humanitarian vs military convoys and telling the difference.
I gotcha.
Unfortunately, we are likely to see it be an incompetence vs a malice incident. Russia spreads their forces thin across the entire country of Ukraine, and as the war drags on people get tired and stressed. They could blow up anything in a situation like that. I guess you have to hope cooler heads prevail at that point.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 7:32 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
My point was about humanitarian vs military convoys and telling the difference.
Its called distinction, when things are happening fast sometimes it works sometimes it doesnt.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 8:11 pm to UndercoverBryologist
Unless it’s a red cross truck, if it moves in Ukraine it’s a potential target for russians
Posted on 3/12/22 at 8:15 pm to TutHillTiger
Or even if it is
Posted on 3/12/22 at 8:23 pm to Jim Rockford
About a half hour ago:
@Kyivindependent
@Kyivindependent
quote:
Air raid alerts in almost every region of Ukraine.
Sirens have been activated in Uman, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Odesa, Volyn, Zaporizhzha, Berezivka, Izmail, Kiliya, Yuzhne, Chernomorsk, Bilyaivka, & Avdiivka.
quote:
As well as in Kyiv, Rivne, Chernihiv, Ternopil, Dnipro, Cherkasy and Sumy Oblasts.
Residents have been asked to go to the nearest shelter immediately.
Posted on 3/12/22 at 8:30 pm to LegendInMyMind
@EerikNKross
It feels like the Ukranians are trying to make the most of every offensive. I know they all aren't successful, but we've heard about quite a few really successful missions.
quote:
Multiple sources say that Ukranian forces knocked out the whole command of Russia's 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade BTG in an ambush. This would mean the BTG is out. This unit was part of the little green men in Crimea in 2014.
It feels like the Ukranians are trying to make the most of every offensive. I know they all aren't successful, but we've heard about quite a few really successful missions.
This post was edited on 3/12/22 at 8:31 pm
Posted on 3/12/22 at 8:34 pm to LegendInMyMind
This tweet has a cool video of the latest drone that the Turks are working on:
quote:
Turkish Akinci-B drone reached an altitude of 40,170 feet and broke the Turkish aviation altitude record LINK
Posted on 3/12/22 at 8:35 pm to LegendInMyMind
I wanted to remind everyone, no matter how much we would all like them too, etc. The Ukrainians are going to eventually lose this war. Putin will keep pouring shite into Ukraine until he has complete control, no matter what he can’t afford to lose or he is dead
Posted on 3/12/22 at 8:41 pm to TutHillTiger
Double post
This post was edited on 3/12/22 at 8:59 pm
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