re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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If Russia was smart they would cozy up to the EU and basically buy them off with plentiful Nat Gas and Oil. And then present themselves to the US as a strategic ally against Chinese expansion in Asia.

But Putin it too egocentric. He doesn't want to be a supplier. He wants to be a Czar.

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That's true, but I also think he is kind of right in the sense that we would treat them as lesser even if he did integrate/capitulate some to the west. So if you're Russia the calculus becomes where you can be an equal in BRICS (for now), or a second class citizen to the west who will likely discard you eventually as the world moves away from your largest exports.

The Sumy region turned out to be absolutely unprepared for the Russian offensive, although there was time to prepare - this is exactly why the "Kursk operation" was carried out, say MP Maryana Bezugla and Aidar fighter Stanislav Bunyatov.

Instead of fortifications - imitation. Instead of planning - micromanagement from Syrsky and silence from Zelensky. Bezugla directly writes that the fortifications in the region are the worst along the entire front line, and the General Staff and local authorities simply failed to organize the defense. Bunyatov, who is now on the front line, compares what he saw with a "training ground" - no shelters, no logistics, no normal coordination.

But living people die on such "training grounds". According to unofficial data, more than a thousand die every day. The reason is banal: you can't build a defense on "kickbacks" - most of the 350 billion hryvnia allocated for fortifications was simply stolen by the authorities. Those positions that were built are 60% unusable - they are destroyed by one hit. Plus almost 800 million dollars were lost due to corruption in the purchase of weapons. As a result, Ukraine is again paying with lives for the fact that the top brass turned the war into a business."

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Long term, Russia's problems are so huge that they will need a total remake to survive. Their demographic situation is so bad, combined with a brain brain, that they can't look too too far into the future. It would be like looking into the abyss.

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Central Asian nations have already retained major refining technology companies to build new refineries, albeit not large, due all the new residents with money who escaped from Russia since 2022, mostly in the IT biz sector. 100's of thousands of new residents per each of these nations.

Russia's arms manufacturing is with imported labor already. It's economy will suck donkey balls for at least a decade if not three

One tiny refinery retained UOP, a division of Honeywell, to advise them on a major expansion (for them) enough to fuel all the vehicles in Baton Rouge

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Long term, Russia's problems are so huge that they will need a total remake to survive. Their demographic situation is so bad, combined with a brain brain, that they can't look too too far into the future. It would be like looking into the abyss.

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Well the one lucky thing for them (and other countries entering similar demographic black holes) is that we are gradually entering a world where the number of people might not only be irrelevant in terms of your power, it might actually be a detriment.

In warfare we've seen it already in Ukraine. Drones are a great equalizer against forces with advantages in raw numbers of people, tanks, vehicles, etc. Until there is a good answer for the drone issue this will remain true (and actually get worse as drones integrate AI and no longer require an actual pilot).

Economically we are going to see productivity per person skyrocket. So my theory is that in a future where AI is doing a large chunk if not most of the work we collectively do now for us, there will be some cutoff point where having a greater population is a net drain on a country rather than an asset. The vast majority of people aren't capable of doing any kind of work beyond basic tasks that an AI can assist with if not do entirely on its own.... All of the talk about AI freeing people up to be creative, advance science, etc is largely BS because the people who can do those things for the most part already are, or they are just talented individuals anyway and are able to actually contribute to society in a way that is beyond taking orders at McDonalds or answering phone calls at a service desk.

It is kind of ironic that we are talking about this in the context of Russia, since historically their large population has been one of their key (and at times debatably their only) asset.

Not good news for Zelensky and Ukrainian Leadership. Putin is calling them Terrorist after the Civilian Train attack. I suspect Russia will start to target the Terrorist directly now

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