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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:19 pm to
Posted by PoppedRiser
Member since May 2025
856 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

Judging by Israel's fricking up iran, repeatedly, with us aircraft, it certainly is not gonna Russia


You're not good at judging and I don't think you understand what air dominance is.
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
21123 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

You're not good at judging and I don't think you understand what air dominance is.

It's not taking f35s into the middle of iran and blowing up multiple air defenses, like s300 or s400s? That seems incredibly dominant to me. How would you define it
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:41 pm to
"I have never received more idiotic tasks than in the current direction. I will tell you the details someday, but the stupid loss of people, trembling before the stupid generals, leads to nothing but failures. All they are capable of is reprimands, investigations, imposition of penalties..."

-battalion commander of the 47th mechanized brigade talking about Kursk."

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Posted by PoppedRiser
Member since May 2025
856 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:52 pm to
quote:


It's not taking f35s into the middle of iran and blowing up multiple air defenses, like s300 or s400s? That seems incredibly dominant to me. How would you define it


You need an actual sample size, not an anecdote. Fluke or legitimate advantage is only determined after repeat strikes and seeing how the other side adjusts.

Also

quote:

It's not taking f35s into the middle of iran


That would never happen, you have no idea what you're talking about, unless it your overly dramatic figure of speech.
This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 3:54 pm
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

It's not taking f35s into the middle of iran and blowing up multiple air defenses, like s300 or s400s?


That never happened. You should know better that if the Houthis almost shot down a F35 there is no way Israel got close to Iran Airspace. Not to mention Iran doesn't have S400s


Iran’s Air Defense Systems:
Iran is known to possess Russian-made S-300PMU-2 systems, acquired in 2016, which are less advanced than the S-400. There is no publicly confirmed evidence that Iran has operational S-400 systems. Some sources indicate Iran has expressed interest in acquiring S-400s, but no deal has been verified as completed. For example, a November 2024 statement from an IRGC official claimed Iran never requested S-400s and that its capabilities surpassed them, contradicting earlier reports of interest

Did Israeli Aircraft Enter Iranian Airspace?:

Most sources suggest Israeli jets did not enter Iranian airspace during these strikes. Instead, Israel likely used long-range standoff munitions, such as air-launched ballistic missiles (e.g., Rocks or Air LORA), fired from Iraqi or Syrian airspace. This approach minimizes the risk to Israeli aircraft and leverages Israel’s advanced electronic warfare capabilities to suppress or evade Iranian radar."










Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

That would never happen



Correct. These guys take ISW reports from Victoria Nuland and Fox News reports from General Jack Keane who is also on the board of ISW as credible information. When anyone with a IQ above 60 knows it is Neocon Propaganda
Posted by PoppedRiser
Member since May 2025
856 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

That never happened. You should know better that if the Houthis almost shot down a F35 there is no way Israel got close to Iran Airspace. Not to mention Iran doesn't have S400s


Exactly. I don't expect your average person to know this, but if he's posting on here and on the subject regularly you'd expect him to have some clue that planes avoid operating in the enemy airspace and fire from beyond that.

Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

Correct. These guys take ISW reports from Victoria Nuland and Fox News reports from General Jack Keane who is also on the board of ISW as credible information. When anyone with a IQ above 60 knows it is Neocon Propaganda


Yes snd to think they could just log in here and find out all they need to know from Barton and Pop a Lock,
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:25 pm to
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:27 pm to
quote:

Not really. If Ukraine stops receiving US intel, weapons and logistics, they collapse very fast. If it continues they get ground down slow with their bottlneck being diminishing manpower and dropping quality of their infantry and officers due to attrition.


You realize you are agreeing with me, right? The degree of Russian advance depends directly on whether the US provides support to Ukraine. The way both US administrations have played this has led to the way going on longer. The issue is that the West doesn't seem to understand that you can't manage conflict, especially when both sides want to fight. And for better or worse, the longer this engagement goes on, the better the Europeans can rearm.

quote:

Literally won every major battle in this war- Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Severodonetsk and Sudzha/Kursk which lasted for 8-9 months. 


They have the manpower advantage which they use, but they too have a limit. They are also are losing quite a bit, especially from drones. It cannot be stressed enough that the Russians too have a demographic crisis, where the number of ethnic Russians is the same as it was in the 1990s, which is an insane scenario for a group of 140 million people. On paper, they shouldn't be bogged down, as from every metric they are the stronger side, except by actual performance on the battlefield. The difference between Western planners and the Russians is that I don't think in a similar situation the West would plan an invasion without making sure they had complete air superiority. The Russians were banking on some illusory notion of support from regular Ukrainians, which wasn't accurate.

It wasn't the case that the Ukrainians had extremely advanced anti-air systems in 2022, as that one of the areas they've relied on Western aid the most, and it is still somewhat confusing why Russia couldn't achieve a degree of air superiority usually enjoyed by the US.
Posted by PoppedRiser
Member since May 2025
856 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:28 pm to
quote:



Yes snd to think they could just log in here and find out all they need to know from Barton and Pop a Lock,


Indeed, but not sarcastically. No one claims to be an expert on anything, you vet your own sources and draw your own conclusions taking variables into account. Most sources quoted by nato fellas have been proven time and time again to be wrong and intentionally misleading designed to 'maintain morale' and upbeat sentiment on social media and in Ukraine.
Posted by klrstix
Shreveport, LA
Member since Oct 2006
3569 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:30 pm to
quote:

An invasion and short blitz would mean half a million to a million of Ukrainian men would be alive, another million wouldn't be handicapped, towns would be spared in the east, they'd still have their grid.


This is an inane comment... Ukraine & Russia would both be better off if Putin's military escapades had never been launched.

But Putin did and somehow you want to make an argument that Ukraine would have been better off simply folding..

How did that work for Poland when they quickly collapsed under Nazi Germany...


This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 4:51 pm
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:35 pm to
quote:

I don't expect your average person to know this, but if he's posting on here and on the subject regularly you'd expect him to have some clue that planes avoid operating in the enemy airspace and fire from beyond that


I believe the reference is older than the recent actions by Israel against Iran where it was claimed that Israeli F35s flew to Tehran and back. Here is a link from 2019 claiming as such, referencing a 2018 test flight. LINK

It is unconfirmed, but this claim has existed for a while, as I remember it from the Syrian Civil War.

I believe the reality of the claim is that the Israelis were mainly taunting the Iranians about their own capabilities.
This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 4:45 pm
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

It wasn't the case that the Ukrainians had extremely advanced anti-air systems in 2022, as that one of the areas they've relied on Western aid the most, and it is still somewhat confusing why Russia couldn't achieve a degree of air superiority usually enjoyed by the U


That a good point, and it doesn’t get enough play. Western aid wasn’t that great until a month or so after the SO began. Why Russia failed so miserably initially is why the war is still going on today.

They had years to plan the SO.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:40 pm to
Dr. Felton is the best on Youtube. I have read his book Ghost Riders. It is about when US and German soldiers fought together to save the Lipizzaner and Arabian horses at the end of WWII.
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 4:57 pm to
Ukrainian sources report a massive wave of drone activity across multiple regions:

– New group of UAVs from Kursk region to Sumy
– Several groups of Shaheds in northern and central Sumy heading to Chernigov
– Multiple groups in Chernigov (north, south, west, center) heading toward Kiev and Cherkassy
– Shaheds in eastern and southern Kiev region heading for the capital
– Shaheds in eastern and southern Poltava region heading north
– More Shaheds from eastern, southern, and central Poltava heading west
– Several groups in Kharkov region heading to Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk
– Drone activity in northern and central Dnepropetrovsk heading northwest
– Drones in southern Dnepropetrovsk moving toward Krivoy Rog
– UAV group in northern Zaporozhye heading north
– Group in northern Kherson heading to Dnepropetrovsk
– New group from southern Kherson heading to Kherson city

Major Shahed wave in progress across central and northern Ukraine."


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Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 5:07 pm to
I don't think Russia would either, but even they would be a step above what we've actually proven ourselves against
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 5:15 pm to
Whether or not the strongest military in the history of the world chooses to assist or not is absolutely a huge determining factor.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

Whether or not the strongest military in the history of the world chooses to assist or not is absolutely a huge determining factor.


Which means that Russian advances are contingent on US support for Ukraine, like I've already said. That is absolutely not a strong position for a military that was once rated as a near peer for the US to be in, don't you agree?
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 5:53 pm to
quote:

Which means that Russian advances are contingent on US support for Ukraine, like I've already said. That is absolutely not a strong position for a military that was once rated as a near peer for the US to be in, don't you agree?


Consider the US didn’t send men, many planes and sent what they did in drips and drab’s; it doesn’t make Russia look good.

Also remember that Biden was our commander in chief.
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