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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/1/25 at 9:46 pm to doubleb
Posted on 5/1/25 at 9:46 pm to doubleb
quote:
quote:
The fact Ukraine got 30% of their country taken with the entire world giving them weapons and nearly $700 billion dollars is down right embarrassing.
Your FACT is wrong. It’s 20% and that includes Crimea which they already had prior to the SO.
And no one gave Ukrsine 700 billion dollars.
Don't waste your time, he's going to post the same thing again and again.
0
Posted on 5/1/25 at 10:11 pm to Lee B
quote:
Perhaps so...
My point is our own country does what that poster is describing as an "invasion" all the time. We aren't saints on the world stage. It's not like this is some huge revelation I'm making here. We, like Russia, are a global superpower, and we have both acted like it from time to time.
Thankfully, we finally have a president willing to change all that on our end and get us out of places we shouldn't be. And also actually negotiating for peace in this conflict, not just saying it.
This post was edited on 5/1/25 at 10:13 pm
Posted on 5/1/25 at 10:51 pm to texag7
That the supposed 2nd greatest military in the world had a blitzkrieg thrown back is an insult even to the street shitting Russians
Posted on 5/2/25 at 3:59 am to CitizenK
quote:
Per my friend formerly with Gazprom breakeven in Russia is $50 not $60
Original Link.
This is an interesting point which I looked into recently. There are many different opinions on what the Russian breakeven price is or even if it is important in present context of the Russian war effort. In other words, how much pain can the Kremlin take from losses in the crude oil market? It could be more than we think, based on our pre-war thinking. The comments in the linked thread highlight some of these opinions.
The pre-war lift cost seems to be an agreed US$20 to US$27 / Bbl, but for older wells can be higher. The added costs following this are where the arguments start. In other words, is the Kremlin now interested in field and well maintenance, taxes not paid to the Kremlin/oligarchs, profitability of post-pumping logistics? Most of these costs are casualties of the war, being eaten by service providers or simply ignored. War is hell, especially when you're losing.
Also, a lot of pre-war thinking is still evident - Urals crude pricing being tied to pricing of Brent, losses by Russian oil producers being backstopped by the sovereign wealth fund, taxes being paid by Russian oil producers... We can safely delete these effects from the discussion now.
More pertinent are facts about the disconnect of Urals pricing from the overall market and long term damage to the Russian oil industry. Firstly, the price for Urals is not effected by global prices in the same manner as pre-war. The few buyers of Urals command a very strong position, completely independent of competing markets. In other words, the Russians are fricked, they have to take whatever is offered because they can't say no.
There's also discussion about well closure to sanding processes and permafrost. These costs are not effecting present pricing but will certainly kill attendance at investor's roadshows. The Kremlin can't look for outside support unless they give up the field. An operating field, and that does wonders to your production.
It's an interesting discussion mostly based on pre-war vs. current pricing constraints. Seeing as the war has changed everything, the actual breakeven price may remain a mystery for the future. But we can be sure of one thing - no one in the Russian oil production side is making money now. Any rare, accidental profit is quickly eaten by war production. No one in Russia is in a position to say no these days.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 7:18 am to Lee B
quote:
I'm never not surprised at how much you guys hate this country in relation to Russia. It's just bizarre.
The fact is the modern Democrat party and it's ilk of leftists are a far greater threat to my home, family, way of life, culture, beliefs and country than Russia is. Russia doesn't facilitate the invasion of my country with illegal aliens from shithole countries. Russia doesn't promote the moral and mental illness of wokeness and/or transgenderism on our society. Russia doesn't promote the welfare/safety of illegal gang member terrorists over American citizens like the Democrats do. Russia doesn't facilitate human trafficking into this nation like the Democrat administration did.
The Democrat Party is the greatest threat that this country faces. It should be banned like the Nazi Party in Germany. IMO one is a evil as the other. The woke left is pure evil.
Personally I support a permanent separation/divorce of the red states from the blue state filth.
This post was edited on 5/2/25 at 7:40 am
Posted on 5/2/25 at 7:20 am to Coeur du Tigre
I have nothing to add to this discussion except that lower oil prices have to be impacting Russia. Oil is the biggest weapon the West had and they need to realize that they need to runaway from buying energy from Russia.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 7:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
The "market" prices are all specifications widgets which do not physically exist other than that traded in UAE with physical oil in its giant steel storage domes at sea built by Conoco. Sakhalin "crude" is actually condensate to what is being produced in Oklahoma, Utica, and Eagleford with a lot of Permian. Much of if not most of Russian crude elsewhere is a higher value intermediate grade. Then there is metals contamination in many sources. It's actually pretty bad with a number of the wells in tight shale formations. It varies wildly even within small fields. There are some fields in Eagleford and Utica which never sold over $40 per barrel because of this. Russia's intermediate crudes are a great fit for Euro refineries more so than what is produced in the US from tight shale. This is due they have far less light ends, thus higher throughput capacity, and are less harsh on downstream refining catalysts which a lot of the tight shale crude will poison increasing need for more frequent catalyst changes.
I don't buy that there has ever been any heavy damage to Russian refineries. Damage and temporary outage which work around to operate again yes, but severe damage, NO. The Ukrainian drones are not hitting the most critical parts regardless of how spectacular the videos are. Some of those "refineries" aren't even refineries. Two were NGL's fractionation plants which were also isomerizing condensate into a high octane gasoline blending component, another a condensate splitter. One also has a butamer unit which isomerizes n butane into iso butane, which is used in alkylation units.
Same goes for internet discussions about costs and prices. The vast majority of "experts", especially the internet are just self appointed who know only that oil. Sanding up happens and why we have workover rigs. It happens when offshore wells are shutdown ahead of hurricanes. X is where some of the most ill informed "experts" reside. Just like those numbnuts at The Hayride blog who never had known shiite from shinola about oil, along with refining and petrochemicals, other than one contributor, Steve Maley, from over decade ago and he was only an upstream guy.
For the last few years Brent is actually tied to WTI, and Shell's Brent field ain't dere no mo. It's depleted and the production platforms are gone with the wells plugged and abandoned.
I have mentioned sanding up which happens especially when a well is shut in and no oil is flowing.
Numb Nuts Peter Zeihan doesn't know shiite from shinola about oil. When he sticks to demographics he is okay otherwise his understanding is about as acceptable as a monkey handing someone a handful of his crap.
As to my friend, formerly with Gazprom, we met because of the company he was/is head of had developed modular GTL plants. The oligarch (in Switzerland since 2014) who owns the company, developed GTL as added revenue to oilfields flaring natural gas enough to be feedstock but not enough to build a pipeline for. A partner and I had met with him and subsequently negotiated for a license to be sole licensee in North America. We were going to build these plants in Baton Rouge, or at one of the then recently close offshore module fabrication yards near Morgan City available for next to nothing. Their base modular plants are 100 BPD or 500 BPD of products made from syncrude. Their catalysts crack the very waxy syncrude into refined products as it is formed. We wanted a lot of wax, basically a slack wax. One makes most diesel and another makes mostly naphtha. The funding regulations for these wells limits flaring so wells have to be choked to produce less oil and thus less associated natural gas. These wells in Siberia were not funded with Russian money so were subject to flaring limits.
I don't buy that there has ever been any heavy damage to Russian refineries. Damage and temporary outage which work around to operate again yes, but severe damage, NO. The Ukrainian drones are not hitting the most critical parts regardless of how spectacular the videos are. Some of those "refineries" aren't even refineries. Two were NGL's fractionation plants which were also isomerizing condensate into a high octane gasoline blending component, another a condensate splitter. One also has a butamer unit which isomerizes n butane into iso butane, which is used in alkylation units.
Same goes for internet discussions about costs and prices. The vast majority of "experts", especially the internet are just self appointed who know only that oil. Sanding up happens and why we have workover rigs. It happens when offshore wells are shutdown ahead of hurricanes. X is where some of the most ill informed "experts" reside. Just like those numbnuts at The Hayride blog who never had known shiite from shinola about oil, along with refining and petrochemicals, other than one contributor, Steve Maley, from over decade ago and he was only an upstream guy.
For the last few years Brent is actually tied to WTI, and Shell's Brent field ain't dere no mo. It's depleted and the production platforms are gone with the wells plugged and abandoned.
I have mentioned sanding up which happens especially when a well is shut in and no oil is flowing.
Numb Nuts Peter Zeihan doesn't know shiite from shinola about oil. When he sticks to demographics he is okay otherwise his understanding is about as acceptable as a monkey handing someone a handful of his crap.
As to my friend, formerly with Gazprom, we met because of the company he was/is head of had developed modular GTL plants. The oligarch (in Switzerland since 2014) who owns the company, developed GTL as added revenue to oilfields flaring natural gas enough to be feedstock but not enough to build a pipeline for. A partner and I had met with him and subsequently negotiated for a license to be sole licensee in North America. We were going to build these plants in Baton Rouge, or at one of the then recently close offshore module fabrication yards near Morgan City available for next to nothing. Their base modular plants are 100 BPD or 500 BPD of products made from syncrude. Their catalysts crack the very waxy syncrude into refined products as it is formed. We wanted a lot of wax, basically a slack wax. One makes most diesel and another makes mostly naphtha. The funding regulations for these wells limits flaring so wells have to be choked to produce less oil and thus less associated natural gas. These wells in Siberia were not funded with Russian money so were subject to flaring limits.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 7:57 am to CitizenK
quote:
As to my friend, formerly with Gazprom, we met because of the company he was/is head of had developed modular GTL plants. The oligarch (in Switzerland since 2014) who owns the company, developed GTL as added revenue to oilfields flaring natural gas enough to be feedstock but not enough to build a pipeline for. A partner and I had met with him and subsequently negotiated for a license to be sole licensee in North America. We were going to build these plants in Baton Rouge, or at one of the then recently close offshore module fabrication yards near Morgan City available for next to nothing.
Unbelievable
Posted on 5/2/25 at 8:40 am to AU86
Democrats are bad so support the Russians in their invasion of a neighboring country? Listen to yourself.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 9:00 am to dagrippa
Who said anything about supporting the Russian invasion?
I said the Russians are a far lesser threat to me and mine than the Democrat Party is. Which is 100% truth.
I said the Russians are a far lesser threat to me and mine than the Democrat Party is. Which is 100% truth.
This post was edited on 5/2/25 at 9:01 am
Posted on 5/2/25 at 9:07 am to AU86
quote:
I said the Russians are a far lesser threat to me and mine than the Democrat Party is. Which is 100% truth.
100% factual truth. Russians are not trying to bring illegals into this country that murder Americans or tell little boys in school they can suddenly become a girl.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 9:15 am to texag7
quote:
100% factual truth. Russians are not trying to bring illegals into this country that murder Americans or tell little boys in school they can suddenly become a girl.
You sound just like a Liberal, just with a different narrative. “The social issues are the most important issues”. Social issues are irrelevant. Social issues will always be the red meat both parties hang over people’s heads for support.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 9:21 am to sta4ever
Mass illegal immigration pouring into this nation is not an “irrelevant social issue”.
Despite you wanting it to be.
Despite you wanting it to be.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 10:17 am to texag7
quote:
Mass illegal immigration pouring into this nation is not an “irrelevant social issue”.
Despite you wanting it to be.
While I agree, many a small business in Texas has made bank by hiring illegals and have done so for DECADES. Especially small manufacturers and the oil patch
This post was edited on 5/2/25 at 10:19 am
Posted on 5/2/25 at 10:57 am to texag7
quote:
100% factual truth. Russians are not trying to bring illegals into this country that murder Americans or tell little boys in school they can suddenly become a
Are you certain of that? I’m not.
Do you think Russia wouldn’t aid a country like Venezuela to get them to ship us their, thugs? I wouldn’t put it past them. We know they were in tight with the last government.
Posted on 5/2/25 at 11:17 am to doubleb
quote:
Do you think Russia wouldn’t aid a country like Venezuela to get them to ship us their, thugs? I wouldn’t put it past them. We know they were in tight with the last government.
Russia sure as heck facilitated migration from Syria after they helped make those folks refugees. At least 50,000 Russians came across the border illegally since the Fall of 2022
Posted on 5/2/25 at 12:59 pm to texag7
Posted on 5/2/25 at 1:15 pm to John Barron
Huge crowd!!!
Posted on 5/2/25 at 1:18 pm to John Barron
Posted on 5/2/25 at 1:21 pm to John Barron
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