re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Zelensky should bomb Russian oil regardless of whether the US gives them new stuff or not.

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I agree, and so far they've been chipping away at it by going after individual refineries to reduce refined products that has had minimal impact on global oil prices.

I'm not an oil expert, but it's my impression, if several of the oil terminals that are used to export crude are damaged, then it could have an impact on global crude prices. This would not be beneficial to Biden's chances of reelection (more inflation). So one scenario is that Zelensky could continue to chip away at refineries then hit the terminals after the election.

Like I said, not an expert, but there's a distinction between reducing crude exports versus refined products. Especially since there's already an export ban on gasoline.

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Cool... but as a fan of sci-fi writer Phillip K. Dick, I can't help but think about his story "The Second Variety" (made into the movie "Screamers"). Let's hope we avoid both that outcome and the Terminator future.

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The cell phone in my pocket is hundreds of times as powerful than a super computer 30 years ago. That makes a lot of this stuff possible. And it runs on a small battery for a couple of days or so instead of 240 volts at >60 amps.

U.S. told Russia that Crocus City Hall was possible target of attack
In an unusual move, U.S. officials shared highly specific information about a terrorist plot with an adversary country

More than two weeks before terrorists staged a bloody attack in the suburbs of Moscow, the U.S. government told Russian officials that Crocus City Hall, a popular concert venue, was a potential target, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

The high degree of specificity conveyed in the warning underscores Washington’s confidence that the Islamic State was preparing an attack that threatened large numbers of civilians, and it directly contradicts Moscow’s claims that the U.S. warnings were too general to help preempt the assault.

The U.S. identification of the Crocus concert hall as a potential target — a fact that has not been previously reported — raises new questions about why Russian authorities failed to take stronger measures to protect the venue, where gunmen killed more than 140 people and set fire to the building. A branch of the Islamic State has taken credit for the attack, the deadliest in Russia in 20 years. U.S. officials have publicly said the group, known as Islamic State-Khorasan, or ISIS-K, “bears sole responsibility,” but Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to pin the blame on Ukraine.

Washington Post

Curiously emergency exits were locked and they had almost no security. Makes me wonder if Putin wanted to let it happen so he could milk the political emotions. He's done it before.

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Early this morning, Ukrainian forces successfully conducted one of the deepest drone attacks of the war, striking multiple targets, including a reported Russian Shahed-136 factory complex in Tatarstan, over 1100km from Ukrainian territory.

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How did they make such a magical weapon?

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Definitely looks to be a converted (Ukrainian Produced) A-22 Foxbat light aircraft.

Goes to show how Russian Air Defence has depleted and reorganised in and around Ukraine that such gaps are able to be exploited.

1300km of airspace penetration by a light aircraft is amazing.

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LINK

Damn the Ukrainians are some clever little f**kers. Turning Cessna's (or their version of a Cessna) into a suicide drone. Also how bad is the Russian air defense? These drones are not small like the other one.

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Cool... but as a fan of sci-fi writer Phillip K. Dick, I can't help but think about his story "The Second Variety" (made into the movie "Screamers"). Let's hope we avoid both that outcome and the Terminator future.


The cell phone in my pocket is hundreds of times as powerful than a super computer 30 years ago. That makes a lot of this stuff possible. And it runs on a small battery for a couple of days or so instead of 240 volts at >60 amps.

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Let's hope that doesn't lead to a future post-apocalyptic landscape where AI killer drones start remanufacturing and improving themselves to be killer humanoid robots that humans can't detect, which would suck!

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on April 2 that lowers the Ukrainian military’s mobilization age from 27 to 25 years of age.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on April 2 that Russian forces seized about 400 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the first three months of 2024 — a rate of advance not necessarily reflective of wider Russian offensive prospects due to the impact of US security assistance delays.

Ukraine conducted long-range unidentified unmanned aerial systems (UAS) strikes against Russian military production and oil refinery infrastructure in the Republic of Tatarstan, over 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address at the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) board meeting on April 2 illustrated Russia’s dissonant response to the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack as Russian authorities simultaneously pursue law enforcement actions against migrant communities while also baselessly implicating Ukraine. Putin also attempted to address intensified debates about migration that have emerged following the Crocus City Hall attack but continued to express an inconsistent and vague stance on the issue.

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on April 2 that the GUR believes that Russian forces will likely temporarily pause strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in order to replenish low missile stockpiles.

US sanctions against Russia continue to impact Russian financial ties to post-Soviet countries, as Kyrgyzstan’s national payment system Elkart announced on April 2 that it would stop processing transactions using the Russian “Mir” payment system to prevent secondary sanctions.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reportedly proposed a NATO aid package that would send $100 billion of military assistance to Ukraine over five years.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on April 2.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated on April 2 that the Russian military intends to finish and deploy several newly constructed small missile and patrol ships in 2024.

The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) is increasing its law enforcement presence in occupied Ukraine in order to intensify Russian control over Ukrainian civilians and strengthen security over critical infrastructure.

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Nailed that. Budanov should hire me, I could point him in the direction of actual military targets.

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People would take you more seriously if you didn't act like a 12 year old constantly.

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What makes you think he's acting?

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Turning Cessna's (or their version of a Cessna) into a suicide drone. Also how bad is the Russian air defense? These drones are not small like the other one.

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Piper Cubs were very popular with pilots just returning from WWII with pockets of unspent pay. An uncle who was a P-38 pilot in Europe, bought one even while he was completing his B.S. and M.S. in math and physics.