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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/18/22 at 8:44 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 10/18/22 at 8:44 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
So you say, "Russia wanted one thing, Ukraine." Why?
Keep it simple. He invaded the Donbas in 2014. The 22 invasion was to topple the government by taking Kiev and rolling south to join his forces moving north. The goal was to put his people in charge of Ukraine.
Why Ukraine? Ask him, but he attacked Ukraine
.
quote:
Putin is many things. He is ruthless, duplicitous, calculating, almost certainly a murderer. He's also a pragmatist though. He is not "crazy." He doesn't do things willy-nilly. Actions he takes are purposeful. They're designed to maximize benefit for effort/cost.
Perhaps you are giving him too much credit. You say he’s calculating, but obviously he miscalculated. You have to admit he has used a ton of resources and yet he is not succeeding. He did not count in the fierce Ukrainian resistance, the support from the West, or the poor showing from his military. He will be fortunate to survive this politically unless he gets the West to cave.
quote:
Putin and the Russian body politick knew the international cost of Ukrainian invasion would be huge. e.g., Much more so than a similar move into the more lucrative, less populated territory of Kazakhstan. What made that cost/risk/effort of Ukraine War worthwhile IAW Russian perception?
I don’t believe they planned for what Ukraine has become. It was supposed to be over by now. They should be well on their way to setting up shop in Kiev. They didn’t think they would be drafting soldiers, or using 1950s weaponry. They knew the West would be mad, but they planned for a situation like post Crimea, and not this, a long drawn out slugfest.
Putin and his planners were anything but smart. They played their hand as if they had pocket aces, but reality was they were holding rags as the Russian military was exposed.
0
Posted on 10/18/22 at 8:45 am to RickAstley
I haven't seen this one posted (it's a few days old), but the tweet is a video of Ukraine's farmers stepping up again:
@komadovsky Twitter
@komadovsky Twitter
quote:
Due to the Russian shelling of the energy plants, there are rolling blackouts in #Ukraine. Ukrainians found a way to keep the trams circulating according to a schedule without electricity.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 8:49 am to SDVTiger
quote:
He wants the Donbas for the minerals and resources
Don’t act dumb. He wanted Ukraine as a rump state and as a buffer between Russia and NATO.
He will settle for the 5 provinces that he has “annexed” because he’s getting Russia’s arse kicked militarily and economically.
He’ll get none of it in the end and will be assassinated by his own people. Then it will take 50 years for Russia to recover from his mistakes.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 8:49 am to RickAstley
Speaking of power, the ability to provide electricity in Ukraine is starting to become dire. Russia is really taking a toll on Ukraine's power supply:
@mjluxmoore Twitter
@mjluxmoore Twitter
quote:
Kyiv is telling Ukrainians to prepare for blackouts across the country after days on end of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. "The situation is critical," says the deputy head of Zelensky's administration. Zelensky said 30% of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 8:54 am to Kentucker
quote:
He will settle for the 5 provinces that he has “annexed” because he’s getting Russia’s arse kicked militarily and economically.
Settle for now, but he won’t give up. He will make peace to regroup, retool, and he will try again.
Maybe it will be by political means, or by aiding and fostering a rebellion, and not a full scale invasion; but Russia won’t quit.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:01 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
So you say, "Russia wanted one thing, Ukraine." Why?
Why Ukraine?
If this is, as you and others here claim, a simple Russian land grab, why not grab land to the more lucrative south?
Russian history is more tied to Ukraine. Russia already had a foothold in country since 2014. Ukraine has twice the ethnic Russians as Kazakhstan. Ukraine is majority Christian where Kazakhstan is 70% Islamic. Kazakhstan is a much larger landmass with less favorable terrain and we see how much trouble the Russian army is having with Ukraine as it is.
Access to the Black Sea has historically been important to the Russians. Ukraine is a buffer zone in their most important security direction in Russias view. Russia has Belarus controlled, linking Ukraine expands that buffer greatly. Irrational in todays time, but if that’s their view it’s all the matters.
Ukraine of course has the pipelines into Europe which was the largest energy importer of Russian energy. Ukraine of course has significant O&G resources. Ukraine has massive lithium deposits which has become an increasingly valuable commodity which also happens to threaten oils dominance in vehicles. Seems significant, but I don’t think many rational people think EVs are going to render the ICE obsolete in 5 years. Ukraine has massive food resources.
There are plenty of reasons for Putin to target Ukraine before Kazakhstan.
This post was edited on 10/18/22 at 9:02 am
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:01 am to crazy4lsu
quote:"Intentional" would imply Putin not attempting to cajole with cheap diplomacy that which he'd then have to conquer at a cost of blood, treasure, and international alienation.quote:I think the evidence suggests this was intentional
I've said Putin did a poor job of conveying how serious Russia was, and what the imminent consequences would be.
I don't think it was intentional.
But I do believe he massively disrespected both Zelensky and Ukraine. I think he viewed Zelensky as better suited to play piano with his penis, than to take a negotiating seat with Putin. IMO Putin views Macron similarly, btw. So though he was willing to negotiate in the run-up to war. When Macron and Zelensky brought nothing to the table, he said sobeit, we'll invade.
In that decision, Putin badly underestimated Ukraine's leadership and national resolve. Knowing what they know now, if Ukraine and Russia could roll back the clock, and reach a diplomatic solution, doubtless they would.
But there is a third wheel in this affair – NATO.
It seems NATO loves the proxy war.
The ability to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, and to clear aging weapons, ordnance, and supply from NATO inventory pleases western warhawks to no end. If antebellum negotiations had attained an earnestness, and if Ukraine had attempted resultant concessions in Feb, it's very likely NATO interests would have squashed those as best they could. Just as occurred in April.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:02 am to doubleb
LINK
From CODEPINK:
I know that some of our regular posters are in this photo with Che and Lenin.
From CODEPINK:
quote:
Yes, the anti-war left is starting to rise! Here we are in Detroit calling for negotiations in Ukraine. We are holding teach-ins, marching, lobbying Congress. Join us. #peaceinUkraine
I know that some of our regular posters are in this photo with Che and Lenin.
This post was edited on 10/18/22 at 9:03 am
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:06 am to RickAstley
quote:Then once it came to rest, a Russian soldier made the deadly mistake of checking on the tank/crew without first scanning the skies above.
#Ukraine: A Russian T-80BV tank was hit by Ukrainian fire, losing a track and with the crew killed/wounded- but the engine was still running, leading to a never ending collection of circles.
LINK
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:06 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I know that some of our regular posters are in this photo with Che and Lenin.
The irony of that and the raised fist on the right
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:09 am to DabosDynasty
I have to admit that I was previously unfamiliar with the term "terracide." That's apparently what the US is funding in Ukraine.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:14 am to GOP_Tiger
In the last 24 hours, both Finland and Italy have promised more weapons to Ukraine.
LINK
LINK
Finland never specifies what it is sending, preferring to let the Russians find out on the battlefield. Italy didn't specify either, but former Italian army officer @noclador says that it's rumored to consist of:
quote:
Finland's 9th package of military aid to Ukraine is en route. Won't be the last one.
LINK
quote:
We are very grateful to IT Government and Minister @guerini_lorenzo for providing the new package of military assistance to ????, that will help us to significantly enh?nce our defence capabilities against russian aggression.
Ukraine highly appreciates your support!
LINK
Finland never specifies what it is sending, preferring to let the Russians find out on the battlefield. Italy didn't specify either, but former Italian army officer @noclador says that it's rumored to consist of:
quote:
• 155mm ammo
• mortars / mortar ammo
• small calibre ammo
• Beretta assault rifles
• Lince armored jeeps
• logistic trucks
• TOW missiles
• Stinger missiles
• drone jammers
• winter clothing
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:19 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
It seems NATO loves the proxy war.
When its literally gifted to you in the form of one of histories biggest miscalculations...sure
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:19 am to GOP_Tiger
Poliboard group photo
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:23 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
Yes, the anti-war left is starting to rise! Here we are in Detroit calling for negotiations in Ukraine. We are holding teach-ins, marching, lobbying Congress. Join us. #peaceinUkraine
I would be willing to contribute to a fund to provide air faire to Russia so then can have their marching and lobbying in Moscow...
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:25 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
But I do believe he massively disrespected both Zelensky and Ukraine. I think he viewed Zelensky as better suited to play piano with his penis, than to take a negotiating seat with Putin. IMO Putin views Macron similarly, btw. So though he was willing to negotiate in the run-up to war. When Macron and Zelensky brought nothing to the table, he said sobeit, we'll invade.
We agree here.[
quote]In that decision, Putin badly underestimated Ukraine's leadership and national resolve. Knowing what they know now, if Ukraine and Russia could roll back the clock, and reach a diplomatic solution, doubtless they would. [/quote]
That would be like a Minsk 3. Maybe now, but why in Feb? Russia can’t be trusted to deal. Ukraine knows this. What would a deal look like?
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:26 am to Kentucker
quote:
Don’t act dumb
Im not i have said he wants the resources since day 1 which is the case. Many of your liberal rags have said as much
quote:
He’ll get none of it in the end and will be assassinated by his own people. Then it will take 50 years for Russia to recover from his mistakes.
Yeah im the one acting dumb
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:26 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Lince armored jeeps
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:35 am to Highthoughts
quote:
Poliboard group photo
Its a good likeness, just trying to figure out who the black guy is
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:44 am to Lakeboy7
Natural gas prices continue to drop in Europe.
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