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1
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:15 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
You mean the only statistician that was saying that Trump had a real possibility of winning the 2016 election 3-4 days beforehand?
Huh? He picked Hillary!!!
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:17 pm to OldSouth
quote:
Strike 2
Then fill me in...
Certainly you arent referring to the people that still have it.
Cause I said recovered compared to dead. Cases that have ended/been resolved comparison.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:18 pm to NATidefan
Everyone (or at least most) that dies from COVID is being counted.
A very small % of those recovered are being counted.
A very small % of those recovered are being counted.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:19 pm to I Bleed Garnet
quote:
Huh? He picked Hillary!!!
Everyone did
It's not like the guy goes out and polls people, he takes data and draws conclusions from it. Nate is kind of a douche IMO but it'd undermine his entire existence if he was like "well the polling indicates X, but my hunch and feeling is _______."
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:19 pm to arcalades
quote:
no, most people do not exhibit any symptoms, so there are many many who recovered just fine
You got any stats to show that?
I already said that and was told strike two...
My statement was based on what was reported.. not theoreticals that we dont know exact numbers for.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:21 pm to I Bleed Garnet
quote:
You mean the only statistician that was saying that Trump had a real possibility of winning the 2016 election 3-4 days beforehand?
Huh? He picked Hillary!!!
He didn't "pick" anyone. He ran statistical models that gave probabilities based on polling data and historical trends. A few days before the election, he started mentioning that while the majority of models still had Clinton as the probable winner, more than few were shifting to Trump which pushed him into a higher category of possibility that really anyone believed.
He was thoroughly mocked by statistically illiterate talking heads in the media until around 8:30 on election night.
Then everyone had to apologize to him.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:21 pm to NATidefan
Of course that’s what I’m referring to. 90% of the infected will be recovered eventually. Plus declaring someone “recovered” takes weeks and is not exactly a priority for Italian doctors right now.
ETA:
I don’t mean to be an arse. I’m just trying to calm your fears a bit. I’m nervous too.
ETA:
I don’t mean to be an arse. I’m just trying to calm your fears a bit. I’m nervous too.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:22 pm to NATidefan
quote:
Cause I said recovered compared to dead. Cases that have ended/been resolved comparison.
It's a simple answer. There is no agreed-upon criteria for recovery, most facilities are not wasting limited tests on recovered patients just for confirmation, and most patients (for any illness including COVID-19) do not follow-up with providers for recovery purposes.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:34 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
He didn't "pick" anyone. He ran statistical models that gave probabilities based on polling data and historical trends. A few days before the election, he started mentioning that while the majority of models still had Clinton as the probable winner, more than few were shifting to Trump which pushed him into a higher category of possibility that really anyone believed.
He was thoroughly mocked by statistically illiterate talking heads in the media until around 8:30 on election night.
Then everyone had to apologize to him.
Yea I know i was just trying to fit in with the OT and hate on gay liberal Nate Silver
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