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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:46 pm to alphaandomega
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:46 pm to alphaandomega
It's funny you mention that. I haven't had frozen donuts in a while. TBH I dunno that I've frozen donuts since my work at Kroger. We would put stuff in the walk in which was like zero degrees. Much older than your standard deep freeze. Those donuts were always legit though. You'd take them out the night before. Let them sit out and then heat them lio in the oven next morning. Straight fire like fresh.
0
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:46 pm to LSUTiger23
Would not want to be anywhere near Tampa Bay with that track.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:52 pm to RockChalkTiger
Maybe I'm still a bit shook from Ida, but this storm is bothering me more than they usually do. Just feels like it's going to be... I just don't like it.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:55 pm to Joshjrn
They next 24 hours is going to be illuminating on the future of Ian. More so than the last 72.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:56 pm to Joshjrn
PTSD is kicking in for me in SELA. The track and ensembles all show Tampa to the panhandle but I am watching the west side of the forecast keep inching west. I want this thing to go over mountains and/or eat dry air and fizzle out.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:57 pm to Duke
Is it wishcasting if I just want to see Greenland in an official cone of uncertainty?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:58 pm to CaptainJ47
10 pm is out.
A little west of previous in days 4 and 5, following trends, but no significant change from last time.
Expecting rapid strengthening at some point in the next two days and to weaken quickly on a Panhandle approach.
A little west of previous in days 4 and 5, following trends, but no significant change from last time.
Expecting rapid strengthening at some point in the next two days and to weaken quickly on a Panhandle approach.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:58 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
Dumb question but I need some knowledge. What times do the spaghetti models themselves run? I know they are 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z but what times do they actually come out?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:00 pm to Duke
10pm CDT advisory:
quote:
Key Messages:
1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula
through mid next week. Additional flooding on rivers across
northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out.
2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.
3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches are now in effect for much of western Cuba.
4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of next week, but uncertainty in the long-term track
and intensity forecast is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s
exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials,
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA
72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:01 pm to Duke
quote:
They next 24 hours is going to be illuminating on the future of Ian. More so than the last 72.
For the record, I don't mean the track. I don't like the projections I'm seeing on it strengthening, wherever it ends up.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:01 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Looks like 5/8” of an H shift west
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:02 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
New advisory calls for Ian to reach 140mph winds.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:02 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Maybe I'm still a bit shook from Ida, but this storm is bothering me more than they usually do. Just feels like it's going to be... I just don't like it.
Relax brother
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:03 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
I don't like the projections I'm seeing on it strengthening, wherever it ends up.
That's going to happen but the farther north it ends up, the more shear and dry air it catches approaching landfall. This isn't the "there will be a little shear near the end" we had for Ida and Laura. This is the kind of shear that eventually opens a tropical cyclone up (kills it). It'll still be a hurricane at landfall, assuming it makes the Panhandle, but won't be a strengthening Category 4.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:04 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
What times do the spaghetti models themselves run? I know they are 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z but what times do they actually come out?
IDK, I wait for someone to post them here most of the time.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:05 pm to tee3
quote:
Relax brother
Haha I appreciate it. And I'm fine. Just a little more tense than I generally am this far out, which as a rule, is not tense at all. Just an odd shift for me. But like I said, I assume I'm still a bit off from last year.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:06 pm to Duke
The 0Z models should start to come out in like 30 minutes with GFS first
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:07 pm to lsuman25
Going to be actively watching them tonight. First set of runs I think we might get some agreement on.
I hope.
I hope.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:08 pm to Duke
Can Rds remove that question mark k thanks
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:08 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
Chad504boy
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