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1
Posted on 9/24/22 at 2:57 pm to Fun Bunch
Thats a solid three H shift west.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 2:57 pm to rds dc
quote:
12z Euro EPS
Dont love that. Way too many members are getting clean runs off Cuba/not even hitting land.
Havent had a chance to dig in but are the models still showing the dry air and shear along the Panhandle?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 2:58 pm to rds dc
quote:
The forecasted upper level pattern over the Gulf probably keeps any deviant tracks from going farther west than Mobile and even then that would be a highly sheared landfall. This is the 5 day forecast from the GEFS, so it would be unusual to see drastic changes in that over the next 5 days.
Pretty big 6hr shift for an ensemble at this range. Probably opens the SE LA door a bit...
Posted on 9/24/22 at 2:59 pm to rds dc
The ensemble spread is so big you shouldn't let your guard down if you're not in the cone
Posted on 9/24/22 at 2:59 pm to maisweh
How many pages do we average per westward shift?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:01 pm to TigerNAtux
3.50
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:02 pm to DVinBR
I’m gonna’ bet the over. 
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:02 pm to rds dc
quote:
Pretty big 6hr shift for an ensemble at this range. Probably opens the SE LA door a bit...
Fuuuuuuuck
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:06 pm to Bunta
Someone needs to change the title of this thread, very misleading at this point.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:07 pm to Joehat
He did notice the ? now
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:07 pm to DVinBR
quote:
The ensemble spread is so big you shouldn't let your guard down if you're not in the cone
I doubt NHC shifts as far west as the consensus but a cone centered over that would reach back pretty far west...
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:08 pm to rds dc
quote:
a cone centered over that would reach back pretty far west...
That would wake up the thread.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:09 pm to Joehat
quote:
Someone needs to change the title of this thread, very misleading at this point.
How so?
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:09 pm to Joehat
quote:
Someone needs to change the title of this thread, very misleading at this point.
How so?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:09 pm to lsuman25
We’ll shite. This changes things a bit. I was making plans for my 97 yr old grandma who lives in Punta Gorda. Now SE La is back in the fold. Please God No GIF
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:10 pm to rds dc
When you say SE LA do you mean direct impact or maybe just on the outskirts if it hits around MS/AL?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:12 pm to tankyank13
Crap
I don’t like the trend
I don’t like the trend
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:15 pm to lesthemadhatter
quote:
When you say SE LA do you mean direct impact or maybe just on the outskirts if it hits around MS/AL?
One of those hurricanes where WAFB sends Allen Tumey to Boothville to report via phone.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:15 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
How so?
I see the ? Now. But, just seems to me that everyone west of Panama City wrote the storm off and this trend now is anything but.
My hurricane planning usually involves watching Mike’s weather page and refreshing updates on these threads, just trying to help.
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