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Started By
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re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season
Posted on 9/11/19 at 3:42 pm to redneck
Posted on 9/11/19 at 3:42 pm to redneck
quote:
the one that is/was suppose to go into the gulf this weekend?
No, that one is still predicted to enter the gulf, but is going to be very weak. There is one that was going to be possibly be entering the gulf around the 20th that looks like it's going to be pushed out by this front
1
Posted on 9/11/19 at 3:53 pm to scott8811
quote:
No, that one is still predicted to enter the gulf, but is going to be very weak. There is one that was going to be possibly be entering the gulf around the 20th that looks like it's going to be pushed out by this front
thanks
Posted on 9/11/19 at 4:14 pm to McNeeseLSU
I know this has been asked already in this thread, but it seems unanswered. Is there a reason the 06z run of the GFS seems to be constantly completely different to their other runs. Is it factoring in different criteria? It’s not just one day either, it seems to be consistently different.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 4:34 pm to rds dc
So this time the President won't be wrong? 
Posted on 9/11/19 at 4:41 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
Im predicting it'll make it through because the Euro shows the trough also but it'll be low to mid 80s as highs and low to mid 60s as the low
Pretty reasonable on the temps.
When the new GFS was just being tested, it was really aggressive on the cold. So it's likely if a front does come through, it won't be quite that dramatic.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 5:03 pm to Cymry Teigr
quote:
I know this has been asked already in this thread, but it seems unanswered. Is there a reason the 06z run of the GFS seems to be constantly completely different to their other runs. Is it factoring in different criteria? It’s not just one day either, it seems to be consistently different.
Each run gets different amounts of data for the initialized state. Historically the 00z is the most accurate, followed by 12z, 6z, and then 18z. They're very minor initial differences, but once the computer runs them out 5 days, they can make a huge impact.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 5:43 pm to slackster
What’s the NHC’s forecast?
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:00 pm to Duke
quote:
got a lot of resolve on the Pacific side of things
You can say that again
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:03 pm to rds dc
Looks like a bad acid trip.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:19 pm to rds dc
95L looks like it's trying to get better organized today
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:32 pm to deuce985
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:33 pm to lsuman25
Cliffs?
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:34 pm to rds dc
Need rain
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:36 pm to Penn
What do you mean? The forecast is right there.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:53 pm to deuce985
quote:
The forecast is right there.
No kidding. Its probably 5 or 6 sentences. Guess some people only understand pictures.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:03 pm to Penn
quote:
Cliffs?
It's comin'. And ain't nobody can say how strong it might be, because intensity forecasting is a very inexact science.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:10 pm to Champagne
quote:
It's comin'. And ain't nobody can say how strong it might be, because intensity forecasting is a very inexact science.
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:17 pm to Champagne
Right now, 95L is sheared pretty good from the SW. Low level, what we'll call a "center", is to the SW of the mid-level. Hopefully the upper low hangs around and keeps the SW shear over it.
Wouldn't be surprising to see the low level center eventually reform NE near or under the mid level. Those aren't easy calls, but would lead me to favor the right side of the cone when we get one.
Wouldn't be surprising to see the low level center eventually reform NE near or under the mid level. Those aren't easy calls, but would lead me to favor the right side of the cone when we get one.
This post was edited on 9/11/19 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:20 pm to Duke
quote:
Right now, 95L is sheared pretty good from the SW. Low level, what we'll call a "center", is to the SW of the mid-level. Hopefully the upper low hangs around and keeps the SW shear over it.
Please put it in terms we can easily understand.
If 95L were playing the Tigers, is your post similar to saying that the 95L Quarterback was just sacked for a loss of yards?
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:25 pm to Champagne
quote:
Please put it in terms we can easily understand
Tropical systems like to have their centers stacked vertically. Better for symmetry and organization. Sometimes though, especially when they are forming and weak, the low level spin isn't aligned with the mid-level. Typically thanks to shear pushing it away.
It's like having the oline not on the same page on a play, it's going to be messy.
The upper low is just something in front of it (westish) throwing wind at it opposed to the direction it's moving. If it stays there, the shear stays and it can never get very strong at all.
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