re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

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i just have always want to exp the eye of a hurricane

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Absolutely unique. When Charley came through we had a group of numbnuts who went outside when it was passing over us. I popped my head outside the door long enough to experience the surreal calm and notice those people. It was nighttime and by then the eye was quite small. Those idiots got stuck as the eyewall moved in. Palm tree branches and a few transformers blew up while they were out there. I started the camcorder when it rolled in. I didn’t think to turn on the night vision so I got the sounds and then the silhouettes of those idiots as the transformers lit the sky up briefly.

I’ve lived through that crap once...it spooked the company I worked for and since Sept was the end of our fiscal year I got flown out to California for the next 3 hurricanes. Every time I was landing back home more and more of the roofs had blue tarps. One river usually 15’ under the bridge home was touching the bottom of the bridge when I flew home the final time.

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2018, the year of the drunk storms.

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A season of sloppy storms. Big sloppy flooding types.

At 11pm it was at 33.8N 79.1W which is just south of Conway. 12 hrs later it is supposed to be at 33.7N 79.6W which looks to be 40-50 miles due south of Florence. Given it's WSW heading it must still be pretty far south east of Florence.

Not sure how big the eye is now though.

*** 2am update has it at 33.7N 79.3W

LINK

That area between Jacksonville to Wilmington is getting absolutely pounded by heavy rain.

That's it. High res has that band in place for the next five hours. Hope everyone got out of that area.

New bern is still getting pounded

Compare it to the radar shown by the WPC three hours ago.



From the discussion:

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The slow movement of Florence and low level areas of convergence supporting the intense rain bands should allow for some locations to receive prolonged periods of rainfall rates between 1-3 in/hr. The 12Z nmmb had a decent handle on the two rain bands ongoing at 02Z, and forecasts the southern rain band to become dominant over the next few hours while the eastern/northern band fades. Some of the latest 00Z hi-res data supports the same idea. The 00/01Z runs of the HRRR also supports a similar idea with the southern rain band strengthening over the next couple of hours. Given widespread coverage of 5-15+ inches since Thursday morning across portions of southern/eastern NC, major flooding/flash flooding is ongoing in many areas with roads washed out and water rescues ongoing. An additional 6+ inches of rain for these locations will only worsen an already dangerous, life-threatening situation.

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It's set up about Wilmington to Jacksonville wrapping around bring more wind to push onshore and the apparent focus to squeeze out a lot of rain. That band is going to be the a focus for heavy rainfall through sunrise.

For the Jacksonville area:

"At 1029 PM EDT, emergency management reported extremely heavy rain across the warned area associated with a nearly stationary rain band from Tropical Storm Florence. Since yesterday 10 to 18 inches have fallen across the area. Life threatening flash flooding is occurring with numerous impassable due to high water. It is imperative that residents remain off the roads, and only venture outside if there is a threat to your well being.

Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible tonight across the warned area.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for portions of Jones, Lenoir, Onslow, and Duplin counties.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Jacksonville, Kinston, Pumpkin Center, Piney Green, Half Moon, Camp Lejeune Center, New River Station, Mount Olive, Swansboro, Phillips Crossroads, Hubert, Kornegay, Richlands, Deep Run, Maysville, Silverdale, Kellum, Midway Park, Comfort and Belgrade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. "

I have to go to Daytona today. Y'all keep that bitch, along with all her bands, and fingers, up there.

She's moving around 2mph. I'm pretty sure you'll be safe down in Daytona.