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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:00 pm to
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:00 pm to
HMON was upgraded last year I believe
Posted by lsutiger2010
Member since Aug 2008
14790 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:01 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 11:45 am
Posted by LewDawg
Member since May 2009
77173 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:02 pm to
Headed to the lake house and this stupid storm is going to follow me
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

quote:
MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


Well damn


Thank the lord for the dry air it’s been fighting.
Posted by shallowminded
Member since Nov 2012
3111 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:04 pm to
Same boat, trip to Amelia island cancelled due to the storm..
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13754 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:04 pm to
Similar image of GFS ensemble as post above... I'll let one of the experts explain but it doesn't look good for the somewhere along the Northern gulf coast

Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:04 pm to
200+ hours on those ensembles fantasy land. miles well have some going into mexico they have it everywhere else including cuba.
Posted by al_cajun
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2017
2442 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:08 pm to
Damn I am suppose to go to Miami in 9 days. What do you think are the chances I am going to need to cancel this?
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 1:10 pm
Posted by urinetrouble
Member since Oct 2007
20621 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:09 pm to
Looks like this thing is moving pretty fast
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:10 pm to
The GFS ensembles above look like they tightly pack to about 72 hours and then they disperse with disagreement past that. Just goes to show with a system like this how fast it can get erratic and their accuracy just significantly declines past a few days. Just an idea of possibilities on what it's seeing.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 1:12 pm
Posted by lsuwontonwrap
Member since Aug 2012
34147 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

What do you think are the chances I am going to need to cancel this?


Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
23312 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

Damn I am suppose to go to Miami in 9 days. What do you think are the chances I am going to need to cancel this?


In 9 days this thing should be well past Florida
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:13 pm to
I don't see why anyone would really pay specific attention to the models past 3 or 4 days outside of "it might be in the general area, so keep an eye out".
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13754 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h)
.


Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:15 pm to
This system they change dramatically with every run too because there's lots of possibilities they're struggling with.

When these models all start to agree with each other and then the ensembles tighten up is when you should really start to pay hard attention to the targeted areas.
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
64976 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:15 pm to
What are the chances this thing makes it to loosiana with more than just a little rain?
Posted by al_cajun
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2017
2442 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

In 9 days this thing should be well past Florida

I guess I worded that poorly. What are the chances Miami takes a direct hit from a Cat 3 or so hurricane? I don't think Miami would be a fun place to go for a vacation 5 days after a hurricane hit.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 1:18 pm
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:18 pm to
It's possible? Some models are targeting the area. Can't say anything past that.
Posted by Tchefuncte Tiger
Bat'n Rudge
Member since Oct 2004
62549 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

enters gulf near Tampa and turns into the Panhandle somewhere.



quote:

Destin


Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:19 pm to
Well buckle up, this is now the top story on cnn.com

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