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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:48 pm to
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100262 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

He will be okay going to the Keys, getting back however in that time frame


Not if the icon model is right he won’t be
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43142 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:51 pm to
...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...
2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28
Location: 18.3°N 65.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:51 pm to
man frick the gfs. it wants to plant this thing near georgia carolinas in one run then next run it just wants to put one right up the pooper of new orleans. next run it will be flying into houston. GFS wishcasting shame shame.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129101 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:52 pm to
That isnt the gfs run. The actual 12z gfs is nothing like those ensembles
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91302 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:53 pm to
quote:




People in this thread who know what any of this means: 1
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:53 pm to
where are they getting the ensembles from then? did they change the model?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100262 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

12z HMON is way weaker


Hmon has been the weakest of the models for Dorian thus far, which is funny cause 2 years ago it always predicted a doomcane
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91302 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

Well it depends on the health of their team and who the opponent is. If it's Chareleston Southern, nothing will atop that game from being played.


Their QB is terrible regardless of his health. I'd suggest they cancel the season.
Posted by League Champs
Bayou Self
Member since Oct 2012
10340 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:54 pm to
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:55 pm to
That’s what I was looking at. How does the model show one thing and the ensembles look, for the most part, NOTHING like it?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91302 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


Well damn.
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:56 pm to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43142 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:56 pm to
Because they tweak the model 20 different times and you get those results resulting in the ensemble.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:56 pm to
this storm is starting to look like worst case scenario every time. just keeps missing land interactions.
Posted by LewDawg
Member since May 2009
77173 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:56 pm to
This looks like it's going to ruin my weekend
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13754 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:57 pm to
The 12Z HWRF shifted to about where the AEMI is on that image. Comes out into the Gulf just above 28 degrees N.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129101 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:57 pm to
Those are graphs showing spacetime in a wormhole
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:59 pm to
I wonder how the grocery store lines are in Jacksonville right now.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146249 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:59 pm to
quote:

Hmon has been the weakest of the models for Dorian thus far, which is funny cause 2 years ago it always predicted a doomcane

an over-correction by the people who set its parameters, perhaps?
Posted by shallowminded
Member since Nov 2012
3111 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 12:59 pm to
Why is that Lew?
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 1:00 pm
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