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Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:23 am to deuce985
Strange question....
My flight takes off at 315pm EST on Saturday, out of MCO (orlando international)
It's obvious that tropical storm force winds won't be there yet....probably not until Sunday sometime
Will airlines (i'm flying spirit) cancel flight before the winds pickup??
My flight takes off at 315pm EST on Saturday, out of MCO (orlando international)
It's obvious that tropical storm force winds won't be there yet....probably not until Sunday sometime
Will airlines (i'm flying spirit) cancel flight before the winds pickup??
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 10:24 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:27 am to Ignignot
Planes can only take off/land up to I believe 15kt crosswind.
In fact I think that's FAA standards.
Airports will ground halt if it goes over that.
In fact I think that's FAA standards.
Airports will ground halt if it goes over that.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:28 am to Duke
Leave it to the Euro to update their better model - with like 3x the ensemble members - to a new engine while the US drags up the rear with the GFS and a handful of ensemble members.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:28 am to deuce985
quote:
I know you follow models a lot which one do you think is the best at dealing with ridges?
Eh, I'm not experienced enough to say with authority.
In general, having that ULL in front of Dorian pulling out west and how the ridge responds is tricky for the computers. I've seen the Euro build in the ridge too quick at times. The new GFS though could well be underdoing it.
Just get comfortable with the uncertainty for now.
ETA:
If you aren't following @tropicaltidbits and @pppapin on Twitter, you should go ahead and do that. Some pretty in depth shite from dudes who know what they're talking about.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 10:32 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:34 am to Duke
RUFF RO
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:38 am to Chad504boy
12Z Icon wants to pound Miami and head west. Upper Level Low on Louisianas coast will be an interesting player in where this run will make a second landfall.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 10:40 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:39 am to lsugolfredman
Need another Cold Front to materialize here quickly 
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:41 am to Duke
quote:
Good day to bust out the radarscope. The San Juan radar has the core of Dorian in range.
Thx Duke!
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:41 am to lsugolfredman
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:42 am to deuce985
quote:
I hate that in Euro ensembles you don't see any northward turn so if it did enter the GOM and those ensembles are correct, it puts the entire Gulf at risk.
These are 12 hours old, but they're not going to change drastically in that 6z update:
Potentially terrifying for LA:
Not nearly as worrisome:
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:42 am to lsugolfredman
what the fresh hell is this shite?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:42 am to lsugolfredman
Yall keep posting the ICON which has to me consistently been the worst case scenario for us.
Is the ICON reliable historically?
I'm really only familiar with EURO and GFS.
Is the ICON reliable historically?
I'm really only familiar with EURO and GFS.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:44 am to Fun Bunch
ICON nailed Barry for better or worse. Its also consistently honed in on a South FL and Gulf track for close to 2 days now. Every other model has bounced around in that timeframe. Also the first to show rapid development to the east of Puerto Rico.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 10:45 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:45 am to slackster
Looks good to me! I'll just go with this one
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:46 am to LSUfanNkaty
When will it hit Florida east coast
Some saying Monday am, some Sunday am
Some saying Monday am, some Sunday am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:54 am to Fusaichi Pegasus
Last frame for 12Z Icon
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:54 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
Is the ICON reliable historically?
It did well with Barry (but the Euro was still the best overall). It's done well short term with Dorian too but I'm not sold on it in the mid range yet.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:55 am to lsugolfredman
quote:
ICON nailed Barry for better or worse. Its also consistently honed in on a South FL and Gulf track for close to 2 days now. Every other model has bounced around in that timeframe. Also the first to show rapid development to the east of Puerto Rico.
Well. frick.
Looks like I may have to cancel my trip because I won't be able to get back home on Wednesday.
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