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Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:32 am to Blob Fish
quote:
For some reason, there are a lot of people out there who seem to be rooting for doctors to fail.
It's not about seeing them "fail" it's about removing human error from a life or death decision. If an algorithm can recognize and diagnose cancer months before it would even occur to a human doctor then it would be criminal to allow that human to continue to practice.
This isn't anger towards doctors, they do what they can and most try their hardest. It's about progress.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:35 am to funnystuff
It will be interesting to watch and see how all this unfolds. Example...Google while EXTREMELY powerful is still not in the top 15 in terms of most powerful corporations. You know what the majority of the top ten companies are? Oil companies...or companies related to oil. It will be interesting to watch the changing of the guard. The oil companies time has come and gone and I'm always paying attention and watching to see who will consolidate the communication industry...the biotech industry. Same people have been doing it for generations with rsilroads...oil...steel etc etc
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:39 am to Blob Fish
quote:
Automation is coming for jobs that are simple input in and input out. Medicine is not like that. ASPECTS of medicine are, but as a whole there's a lot more that goes into simply MAKING a diagnosis, much less treating it. In terms of internist type jobs, who's going to input the information? The patient? Patients can't even remember what pills to take. Who's going to listen to the history and pull out the salient information? Doctors have a hard time even interpreting what patient's say. What about surgery? Robotics will likely still be just a tool surgeons use in the distant future. Now one legitimate argument is that fewer diseases will require surgery. You could argue diagnostics like radiology and pathology could be done by a robot, but even then it will most likely just become doctors inputing and interpreting data with the assistance of a robot.
All of this. I think most just don't understand what is happening in medicine b/c most of their experiences are from the outpatient care when they've had a cold.
Of all specialties radiology seems most likely to me but I'm sure some would disagree. Path I'm not so sure about - reading histopathology isn't always the most straightforward process.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:45 am to LucasP
Well this is an oversimplification and shows a lack of understanding of what cancer even is. It's not one disease. That's why there is no "cure for cancer".
You're referring to diagnostics now, and there will certainly be innovations there. Machines will be able to pick up tumor markers in the blood and such. But it will still require interpretation.
Bankers and accountants and other plug and chug jobs will be obsolete long before doctors.
You're referring to diagnostics now, and there will certainly be innovations there. Machines will be able to pick up tumor markers in the blood and such. But it will still require interpretation.
Bankers and accountants and other plug and chug jobs will be obsolete long before doctors.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:46 am to dreaux
Oh I agree entirely. Google isn't at the top of the pyramid yet, I just think they have the inside track to get there.
We're in an entirely new world now. Data is no longer a product of businesses, it's now a key direct input to them. And the trap we risk falling into is that the companies with the best data (i.e., Google), are going to be the ones who develop the best machine learning algorithms, making them more successful, leading to them getting more data, leading them to being more successful, so on and so forth, the gap between them and competitors growing exponentially right up until the time we reach ASI (at which point nobody has a clue what the frick will happen haha)
Definitely something to keep an eye on. And more people should familiarize themselves with the power of machine learning. It's possibly the most powerful tool we have in the world right now
We're in an entirely new world now. Data is no longer a product of businesses, it's now a key direct input to them. And the trap we risk falling into is that the companies with the best data (i.e., Google), are going to be the ones who develop the best machine learning algorithms, making them more successful, leading to them getting more data, leading them to being more successful, so on and so forth, the gap between them and competitors growing exponentially right up until the time we reach ASI (at which point nobody has a clue what the frick will happen haha)
Definitely something to keep an eye on. And more people should familiarize themselves with the power of machine learning. It's possibly the most powerful tool we have in the world right now
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 8:47 am
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:50 am to Blob Fish
quote:
Bankers and accountants and other plug and chug jobs will be obsolete
Agreed.
quote:
long before doctors.
Wrong. There isn't the same financial incentive to replace those professions. We have a shortage of doctors in this, and most, countries. Their pay rates are enormous and the amount of time and money required to train them is absurd. And even with all of that training, they still get it wrong A LOT.
Also when a banker fricks up nobody loses a limb or dies. The incentive is too high to replace them, doctors will be some of the first to go.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:54 am to LucasP
But we're still way closer to being able to automate the full roll and responsibilities of accountants than we are to doctors.
I'm not sure if we'll see the day when there are no doctors left, but we'll likely see them decline over time as more machines can fill more of their roles. We're still far away though from having them preform all of a doctors roles, which seems to me like the necessary condition to call the profession "obsolete"
I'm not sure if we'll see the day when there are no doctors left, but we'll likely see them decline over time as more machines can fill more of their roles. We're still far away though from having them preform all of a doctors roles, which seems to me like the necessary condition to call the profession "obsolete"
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:57 am to LucasP
quote:
doctors will be some of the first to go.
Seems like that could really hurt some big pharma companies, who have doctors push their latest/greatest products
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:58 am to funnystuff
And a side note, with the population growth we'll have moving forward, don't be entirely surprised if the total number of professional doctors still increases over time. Their jobs may end up being far more emotional care intensive than we view it now, but this isn't a profession that's completely going away. The tech that people are developing will help make doctors way way more efficient, but most people struggling with life and death ailments still want to see a human face watching over them rather than a computer screen. This profession will evolve like all others, but it won't die out
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 9:00 am
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:00 am to LucasP
quote:
doctors will be some of the first to go.
quote:
Wrong.
As previously stated, your cancer example shows why you aren't understanding medicine. If it were just a matter of algorithms we would be much better at it by now. The unpredictable nature of diseases and how different bodies respond to diseases (and medications) will not allow for someone to just plug algorithms into a robot and call it a day. Not every patient's body reads the text book.
quote:
And even with all of that training, they still get it wrong A LOT.
Sure they get it wrong. Tell me, where is the information going to come from when it comes time to program these robots?
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:01 am to gthog61
quote:
In the 60's we were supposed to have flying cars by now. All we have is facebook.
quote:
Aerocar International's Aerocar (often called the Taylor Aerocar) was an American roadable aircraft, designed and built by Moulton Taylor in Longview, Washington, in 1949.
quote:
Terrafugia[1] (/?t?r?'fu?d?i?/) is a small, privately held American corporation that is developing a roadable aircraft called the Transition and a flying car called the TF-X. The Transition and TF-X are designed to be able to fold their wings, enabling the vehicles to also operate as street-legal road vehicles. First delivery of the Transition is scheduled for between 2015 and 2017.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:04 am to funnystuff
There was a move in legislation recently that was just a footnote...as most really important things are. It gives nurse practitioners complete oversight where an MD no longer has to sign off.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:09 am to AubieALUMdvm
You think all these cameras and microphones on all these devices we have are simply to send meaningless pics off into cyberspace???
Or
Recording not just what you say...but eat, drink, how you sleep, your environmental attributes??? Go take a look at what Google is invested in.
Or
Recording not just what you say...but eat, drink, how you sleep, your environmental attributes??? Go take a look at what Google is invested in.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:10 am to theunknownknight
Doctors/Lawyers etc. becoming obsolete is sort of the wrong way to look at it. We aren't moving towards an automated world so much as a self help world. Think of it like the self checkout at the grocery store. You may be able to get diagnosed and even treated without even talking to a human for 80% of cases. For the 20% of conditions that aren't routine you'll get escalated to a human. So we'll still need doctors, just not as many. And we probably won't need receptionists/billing specialists/nurses/PAs/phlebotomists/etc.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:13 am to LucasP
We all hear you. There is a huge INCENTIVE to replace doctors, but do we have the capability? No. Malignancy and disease are far more complicated than you seem to understand, and it's not worth my time arguing about it.
Sure. You're right. We are going to replace a field where we still probably know less than we know, but doctors will be replaced before bankers and other number punchers.
Sure. You're right. We are going to replace a field where we still probably know less than we know, but doctors will be replaced before bankers and other number punchers.
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 9:15 am
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:14 am to TigerinATL
This sounds like a good compromise from my doom and gloom prediction to overstated self worth of mundane task
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:16 am to dreaux
To be honest, whenever I find out that I'm dying from something, I'd much rather hear an automated voice from a robot say, "hey bro, you have 'insert cliche disease'. You're probably going to die in the next 2-3 months' than hear a doctor say the same thing with the exact same tone and then go into the next patients room like nothing ever even happened.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:17 am to AubieALUMdvm
So a doctor can use his personal experience to help form opinions. A machine can use millions of doctor's experience.
Citing my lack of oncology expertise doesn't discredit the idea that computers can diagnose better than humans. And that's right now, imagine ten years from now.
You're right, medicine is very complicated. I'd say it's too complicated for a human mind. A person can't retain the wealth of knowledge they got at med school but a computer can. And now it can use that knowledge to save lives. This is a good thing.
quote:
As previously stated, your cancer example shows why you aren't understanding medicine.
Citing my lack of oncology expertise doesn't discredit the idea that computers can diagnose better than humans. And that's right now, imagine ten years from now.
You're right, medicine is very complicated. I'd say it's too complicated for a human mind. A person can't retain the wealth of knowledge they got at med school but a computer can. And now it can use that knowledge to save lives. This is a good thing.
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