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re: How different would WW2 have turned out if Germany didn't delay for 3 days at Dunkirk?

Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:14 am to
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:14 am to
quote:

I think the psychological effect of a single bomb doing that much destruction is mostly what brought them to the table


It's possible. I have no idea how the Japanese held out as long as they did. I just think if we never had a nuke we could have achieved the same results with fire bombing. Like the previous poster said, it would have just taken more resources.

But in the end it doesn't really matter. That's why I never understood why people said if we didn't have the nukes we would have had to invade Japan. I don't think that is true. We could have covered the entire island with firebombs if we wanted to.



quote:

But, your case is solid and mine is merely my opinion..


Nah they are both opinions, I don't think we will ever know for sure
Posted by cave canem
pullarius dominus
Member since Oct 2012
12186 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:16 am to
quote:

Russia allows the US to operate from within their borders... You could also see us operating out of Iran, Iraq, act... and what that might look like....


I just don't see ant of the above being useful with 1940 logistics. Nor do I see us entering the war in Europe if the Brits are knocked out.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74631 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:16 am to
quote:

No Dunkirk then Hitler probably invades soon and you have Vichy Britain


Couple of things.

(1) Hitler was never really going to invade Great Britain. He just wanted them out of the war.

(2) Even if the BEF had surrendered, Germany still could not invade sooner because if the simple fact they had no means to pull off a cross channel invasion. Even ifcthey'd have wanted to invade in he summer of 1940, it would have taken months, perhaps even a year to have the capability to transport an invasion force to Home Islands.

(3) The RAF and Royal Navy were the main worries or the Germans, not a few hundred thousand defeated and unarmed soldiers rescued from French beaches.

ETA: some whiney bitch can't counter my opinion with anything of substance so they hide behind a down vote like a little bitch.
This post was edited on 7/22/17 at 9:27 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135363 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:33 am to
quote:

How different would WW2 have turned out if Germany didn't delay for 3 days at Dunkirk?
England would have had to ask for armistice terms and exit the war.

With a ceasefire on its western front, Germany would have had full strength on its eastern front to attack the Soviet Union. Germany would have pushed the Soviet government to east of the Urals and made the area of Russia west of the Urals a client state similar to Vichy France.

The war in Europe would have been over before Pearl Harbor ever happened.
This post was edited on 7/22/17 at 9:47 am
Posted by gorillacoco
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2009
5328 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:38 am to
quote:

The real "what if" is if the Germans and Soviets leave each other alone. The US and Brits are left to take on the Germans without the Soviets killing 7/8ths of them.


This. The third reich would likely still be standing if they don't go to war with the soviets.
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
56201 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:45 am to
quote:

England would have had to ask for armistice terms and exit the war.


Why couldn't they have relied on the Royal Navy to prevent any amphibious invasion of the islands of the United Kingdom?

Also, the Royal Air Force would still have been able to fly against the Luftwaffe in the air fight over Britain.

Neither the German Luftwaffe nor German Navy were strong enough to sustain an amphibious invasion of British shores.

I don't understand why people simply conclude that British failure at Dunkirk would mean that Britain would be forced to make peace with Hitler.

The USA was already helping Britain by that time. The USA was able to supply the entire Royal Air Force with 100 Octane aviation fuel, which improved performance significantly. The US Navy was engaged in an undeclared war on the high seas against the Germans.

IMHO, people should really think more about their conclusion on this question. The conclusion is that Britain would have been FORCED into making peace? That Britain would have NO OTHER option?

Keep in mind that the Luftwaffe was a tactical air force. The Germans had NO heavy bombers -- only medium and light bombers. The Luftwaffe had no strategic bomber force.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Member since Nov 2009
127616 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:50 am to
quote:

The only way war between the US and Japn could have been avoided was either the US lift it's embargo in Japan or Japan withdraws from China.
Interesting. Considering how strong isolationist sentiment was at that time, we may have done just that. Take into account the 1940 election. If GB loses big at Dunkirk in May-June and Churchill receives a vote of no-confidence and GB sues for peace, there is a good chance FDR decides to cut his losses and tacks towards an isolationist platform (he was already essentially doing that anyway early on).
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135363 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:51 am to
quote:

England would have had to ask for armistice terms and exit the war.



Why couldn't they have relied on the Royal Navy to prevent any amphibious invasion of the islands of the United Kingdom?
I never said it wouldn't. I said England would have asked for an armistice...a cease fire agreement to prevent Germany from continuing to attack the British Isles.

quote:

I don't understand why people simply conclude that British failure at Dunkirk would mean that Britain would be forced to make peace with Hitler.
Mainly because Britain would have lost over 50% of its standing army.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Member since Nov 2009
127616 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:51 am to
quote:

I don't understand why people simply conclude that British failure at Dunkirk would mean that Britain would be forced to make peace with Hitler.
Militarily they probably could have fought on for quite some time. Politically, I think you see a vote of no-confidence and the Parliament dissolved.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74631 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 9:54 am to
quote:

Mainly because Britain would have lost over 50% of its standing army


Exactly. The physiological blow of having an entire British army bagged up cannot be overlooked.
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
56201 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 10:08 am to
quote:

Exactly. The physiological blow of having an entire British army bagged up cannot be overlooked.


I say that it cannot be said with certainty that Britain would have been FORCED TO MAKE PEACE with Germany if that happened. I say that because the invasion of Great Britain would have required German control of the skies and the seas. Having a decimated standing ARMY didn't adversely affect the British Royal Navy and Air Force enough to establish German air and naval superiority.

Anyone who states with certainty that Britain would have no choice but to make peace had the Dunkirk rescue not happened is not on solid ground because they discount the fact that the Royal Navy and Air Force were able to defend Britain alone and no German force ever invaded to face any British standing army, however small.

That's just my opinion.

They might have been more likely to make peace. But FORCED to and with NO other option? Hmmm. I don't see it.
This post was edited on 7/22/17 at 10:10 am
Posted by ZappBrannigan
Member since Jun 2015
7692 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 10:12 am to
People forget that GB and US were near complete Naval powers.

The BEF was nearly all the gas in the tank for a land based army because you don't need a standing army unless Napoleon comes out the crypt

France being knocked out was pretty much all the Continental power. Northern Europe didn't have the population to resist a trained and properly maneuvered military and were taken out piecemeal. Even the Finns would've had a rough time.
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
56201 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 10:14 am to
quote:

Politically, I think you see a vote of no-confidence and the Parliament dissolved.


Sure the political situation is less subject to objective analysis. Who knows what the politicians will do? That's why we could not be certain what the politicians would do had Dunkirk been different. We can't say for certain that "Churchill would have been voted out and the new guy would make peace."

Militarily, the Royal Navy and Air Force were able to defend the homeland. The military calculation relies on objective evidence: the Germans would not be able to establish air and naval superiority necessary to execute and sustain an amphibious invasion.
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
56201 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 10:26 am to
quote:

Mainly because Britain would have lost over 50% of its standing army.


Keep in mind that only men and rifles were evacuated from Dunkirk. The British DID LOSE every anti-tank gun, every tank, every vehicle, every field artillery piece, and every supply dump that they sent to France. So they did lose over 50 percent of the standing army's ability to fight on a WW2 battlefield. You needed more than men with rifles to win a WW2 battle.

So those evacuees were not ready to fight for a long time after Dunkirk because they had to be re-equipped. Why didn't the Germans invade at that point? The British Army was really no better able to fight a WW2 battle at that point than had the soldiers at Dunkirk been lost.

The Germans didn't invade then because they didn't have air and naval superiority -- not in June, 1940; not in July, 1940; not in September, 1940. By October the weather worsened but, the Germans didn't have air or naval superiority by then, either.

I'm not saying that the consensus is absolutely wrong and that I'm absolutely right. I simply want to say that the consensus, IMHO, might be wrong and that it's not a slam dunk.

This post was edited on 7/22/17 at 10:30 am
Posted by alajones
Huntsvegas
Member since Oct 2005
35972 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 10:48 am to
I think we now know (once again through the lens of history) that the Brits had the air defense network, the technology, the superior Air Force ( the Luftwaffe consistently underperformed during the war), the determined will and a better intelligence gathering network than the Germans and was likely going to remain that way for many years. Plus they were being supported by the US. They may have thought at the time that suing for peace was their only option, but I believe they would've realized very quickly they could hold out for a long time on their island.
Posted by ZappBrannigan
Member since Jun 2015
7692 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 11:07 am to
It's not so much the Luftwaffe underperformed as they were assigned an impossible mission in the Battle of Britain.

The British were able to replace material loss in aircraft greater than destruction inflicted and pilots had the advantage of bailing out over friendly territory.

Germany never put much into heavy bombers even after/or because they participated in the Spanish Civil War and determined that medium bombers were enough for military
and civilian targets. The medium bombers would've been enough to reduce the RAFs southern airfields to rubble after repeated engagement. Hitler ordered moving to the cities which could absorb the bombs more readily. Basically it was large scale tactical bombing on strategic targets.

All it did was give Churchill the ability to stiffen the resolve of the British people. Had Hitler blockaded and forced the Home Fleet and RAF to languish as Fleets-in-being. The political will at home for war for the Brits would have waned.

Dunkirk was the ignition, the Battle of Britain the fuel, and the North Africa campaign the momentum that kept Britain in the fight. There's other near misses but those are what kept the Great Britain in Western Europe.

Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
56201 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 11:24 am to
quote:

Had Hitler blockaded and forced the Home Fleet and RAF to languish as Fleets-in-being. The political will at home for war for the Brits would have waned.


I agree with your overall point but based on the Order of Battle for the two sides in the air and at sea, at no time did Germany ever have the military power to blockade the UK and force the Home Fleet to stay in port.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
117200 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 12:01 pm to
Britain would have sued for peace as it essentially would not have had a home army. This would have taken its navy out of the picture as well and given Germany and the Axis control of the Med and the North Atlantic. This would have helped keep Italy afloat and viable, and could well have made the USSR winnable due to the absence of a Western Front.
Posted by ZappBrannigan
Member since Jun 2015
7692 posts
Posted on 7/22/17 at 2:46 pm to
They didn't need to do it for long. A Fleet-in-Being is a fleet that can't take to sea. They only needed to strangle enough to make the public lose faith. At no point, even the "Happy Times" did German Navy ever come close to starving the island. But the Battle of the Atlantic was a better resource show for the Germans in mucking British morale. Privation, even minor is woeful to a Western capitalist society. Combine that with a keeping the Home Fleet in check by not wasting the Bismarck and splitting her from her sister ship before she was ready because the Blitz was a fizzle and Britain changes government sometime in mid 1941.
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