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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:48 am to ned nederlander
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:48 am to ned nederlander
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the
north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the
north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
0
Posted on 9/19/24 at 1:27 am to Tarps99
quote:
Would the last one left please remember to turn off the lights.
What lights?
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:10 am to GeauxGutsy
quote:
Would the last one left please remember to turn off the lights.
That is an old expression when the oil bust had so many people leaving places like Houma and Morgan City in the 1980’s that people said that. Back in the nonLED days, it was considered wasteful to leave the lights on when not in use.
Now the insurance market is running people off from the entire coast of Louisiana south of I-10/12. Another catastrophic hurricane event leading to even higher insurance rates, might have some people saying it is time to leave.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 5:48 am to Tarps99
The GFS is getting whackier and whackier. This run gets to Western Gulf looks like it wants to go to Mexico nope heads north then south like a stall bc not reall far movement then finally after day 10 gets picked up northeast. This run would pummel Plaquemines parish before going to FLorida panhandle
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 5:51 am
Posted on 9/19/24 at 6:08 am to lsuman25
quote:
The GFS is getting whackier and whackier. This run gets to Western Gulf looks like it wants to go to Mexico nope heads north then south like a stall bc not reall far movement then finally after day 10 gets picked up northeast. This run would pummel Plaquemines parish before going to FLorida panhandle
The Drunk 18z is now hungover and still drinking at 6z. Where is the computer model based out of a Bourbon Street Bar?
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 6:32 am
Posted on 9/19/24 at 6:18 am to Tarps99
Every season, there's typically one model that performs best versus the others. Sometimes one is best for track and another is more accurate for intensity. It's been a "quiet" season, but whichever one(s) have performed best to this point should be first option for consideration/concern.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 6:21 am to friendlyobservation
I’m at the point in life where when I have a few days I just watch the weather for a few nice days in a row .. then I book, pack and leave. Couldn’t always do that.
Also I had dreams last night about this thing .. it included thoughts of prepping again, insurance concerns and actual evacuation this time.
Ugh.
Also I had dreams last night about this thing .. it included thoughts of prepping again, insurance concerns and actual evacuation this time.
Ugh.
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 6:26 am
Posted on 9/19/24 at 6:33 am to Mr Roboto
So GFS is still doomcane for the entire northern gulf coast.
Got it.
Got it.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 6:49 am to rds dc
So late last night it jumped to 40% prob of development to gone completely this morning? Not sure I've ever seen that unless it was something 20% or less out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 6:50 am to Marlo Stanfield
That's weird as shite.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 6:53 am to Marlo Stanfield
I still see it as 40% as of 6am
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 6:54 am
Posted on 9/19/24 at 7:14 am to LSURoss
The one on the OP updates automatically and doesn't show it as of 6:42am. May be a glitch.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 7:19 am to Marlo Stanfield
quote:
So late last night it jumped to 40% prob of development to gone completely this morning? Not sure I've ever seen that unless it was something 20% or less out in the middle of the Atlantic.
The graph in the OP is not accurate. It's very much still there on the NHC update
Posted on 9/19/24 at 8:00 am to rds dc
The graph in the OP is ONLY for disturbance #2 for whatever reason.
Needs to be updated to show ALL disturbances.
Needs to be updated to show ALL disturbances.
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 8:01 am
Posted on 9/19/24 at 8:34 am to rds dc
A week from today, the GEFS is really locking in on things. At this point, take any individual model run with less than a grain of salt.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 8:35 am to ned nederlander
quote:
I’ll wait for Mr. Bruce Katz to weigh in on the track before making any plans. Listen to the locals, folks.
I think he already announced it will be a Cat 5 up the mouth of the Mississippi
Posted on 9/19/24 at 8:37 am to rds dc
quote:
At this point, take any individual model run with less than a grain of salt.
Naw, the facebook model has a good hold on this. Cat 5 into Houston
Posted on 9/19/24 at 8:46 am to Cosmo
Gonna hang on to my generator from Lowe's that's still in the box another week, I guess.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 8:47 am to VernonPLSUfan
quote:
Gonna hang on to my generator from Lowe's that's still in the box another week, I guess.
I really wish they would smack people like you with a 50% restock fee
Posted on 9/19/24 at 8:49 am to VernonPLSUfan
quote:
Gonna hang on to my generator from Lowe's that's still in the box another week, I guess.
return it.
and then re-purchase it. extend your return date.
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