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re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/22/17 at 9:46 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146160 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

I think the 82 crashed set the stage that it was a problem, and got the government thinking about it.

In typical government fashion, though, it took a second incident (the dallas crash) to get the feds off their butts and make it happen.

ETA: there was another crash in NY I think, that was wind shear, but I don't think they really knew that until much later

had my Dallas crashes wrong... it wasn't '88... but rather '85

2 microburst downdraft-caused crashes in 3 years in 2 major US cities
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41727 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 9:50 pm to
I can't believe Delta still uses 191.
Posted by tigercraig
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2003
3736 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 9:53 pm to
Holy NAM- 969MB on last frame
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21465 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 9:59 pm to
Well I know for fricking sure the LANG is getting called. Better start job searching again.
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39116 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:01 pm to
Just saw the 84hr NAM.

It's ugly. 969 mb's and deepening at the end of the run.

Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
104088 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:01 pm to
They cant fire you for being activated baw.
Posted by HeadedToTheWoods
Sportsman's Paradise
Member since Dec 2013
1272 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:02 pm to
Didn't Nash nail the Katrina prediction? Well in advance. ?
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77670 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:03 pm to
Link?
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21465 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:04 pm to
quote:

They cant fire you for being activated baw.


It has happened. My last job stopped giving me projects because I was gone 6 weeks with AT and BTR flood last year. Then I was let go.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
104088 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:06 pm to
Did you talk to a lawyer about it?
Posted by jmarto1
Houma, LA/ Las Vegas, NV
Member since Mar 2008
37741 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:11 pm to
quote:

Nash wasn't always right - nobody is. But what he did do is use his vast knowledge of meteorology to explain all the possibilities and give you his educated most likely scenario of the path and strength to expect. More often than not, he was correct.

Contrast that to looking at a bunch of computer models and trying to justify why your personal favorite is the correct one like many of the so-called experts do today.



He'd be the belowpar of weather threads if he was alive and we got him to post
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21000 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

Just saw the 84hr NAM.

It's ugly. 969 mb's and deepening at the end of the run.


Pay no attention to the NAM.
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39116 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:19 pm to
quote:

Link?



84 hr NAM

push play
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21465 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:20 pm to
quote:

Did you talk to a lawyer about it?


I have pondered it. Im not going to scare away potential employers by coming after them if I am being burden to their projects. Dont think it'll be smart on my part. Got a couple years till I retire then I wont have to worry about it anymore.
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1934 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:25 pm to
While I'd normally say to ignore the NAM, it does a couple things right in this run:

1: establishes the COC further north than other models

2: develops the storm concentricaly instead of gyre style

And just like last night, it could pave the path indicating rapid development in other models. Only time will tell

This post was edited on 8/22/17 at 10:26 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21000 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:26 pm to
quote:

It did not, geauxmedic


Do you have confirmation on this? The Dump Data has reccon split b/w 18z and 00z but doesn't have any HDOB. I was wondering the same.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41727 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 10:39 pm to
I'm wondering if it's even in the 00z GFS.
Posted by lsutiger2010
Member since Aug 2008
14790 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 11:00 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 10:32 pm
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
40387 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 11:04 pm to


Posted by medtiger
Member since Sep 2003
21938 posts
Posted on 8/22/17 at 11:44 pm to


Let's hope this doesn't come to fruition.
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