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1
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:21 pm to tke857
looks like it didnt get enough of texas....
back into TX
back into TX
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:22 pm to TigerDude80
quote:
Eyewall replacement cycle Done
The only question now is if it stalls and how long does it stay offshore. That will determine how strong it becomes.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:22 pm to tke857
If it does stall keep in mind that sea surface temps will drop a couple degrees every day its parked over the gulf
Big difference between low 80s and high 70s water for intensification
Big difference between low 80s and high 70s water for intensification
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:22 pm to slackster
quote:
Recon about to make their way back through the eye. I guess they may be looking for some verification outside of a lone dropsonde?
This plane isn't even doing a ne/sw path. it's not going to hit the strongest winds. this east-west pass is not going to verify cat 3 winds.
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:22 pm to tke857
You have a link to Euro model
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:23 pm to TigerDude80
Here we go...
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:24 pm to slackster
quote:
Euro taking it into TX much farther southwest of the previous runs.
If this holds true to the 00z run, I expect the next few frames will take it N/NE up through eastern TX.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:24 pm to slackster
So is this thing tracking NW?
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:25 pm to NYNolaguy1
I feel much better now about us here in Louisiana. Might get some rain but nothing we can't handle so long as models don't deviate too much. There is still time for changes since the stall happens more than a couple of days from now. I don't know how Texas is going to handle that kind of beating, though. That general area basically has a hurricane sitting on it for 3-4 days or longer. Even if it weakens to a Tropical Storm, it won't matter by that point. The rain will be endless and any winds will topple trees in such saturated soil.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:25 pm to slackster
Euro is gonna to have Harvey miss Louisiana ?
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:25 pm to slackster
i guess worse case scenario it hugs the coastline and goes NE
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:28 pm to tke857
Damn, hour 144 not good for Houston.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:28 pm to tke857
50 sustained gusting to 60 at Aransas Pass. Pressure at 999 mb.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:29 pm to Muice
ploppin right on top
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:30 pm to tke857
quote:
ploppin right on top
Well. shite!
994 correlates to how strong?
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:31 pm to MSMHater
its hard to base intensity off of strictly MB but most likely will be a TS for wind projection look here:
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:31 pm to slackster
quote:
If this holds true to the 00z run, I expect the next few frames will take it N/NE up through eastern TX.
As I suspected - through 144 hours:
Posted on 8/25/17 at 1:32 pm to MSMHater
1ish for that pressure.
The troubling part is a second landfall bringing surge in after all that rainfall trying to drain out. Potentially a very bad scenario for Houston in terms of flooding.
The troubling part is a second landfall bringing surge in after all that rainfall trying to drain out. Potentially a very bad scenario for Houston in terms of flooding.
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