re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

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can I get a quick update

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Absolutely,

Past 3 or 4 Euro models have shown landfall in TX then stalling on the coast back into the gulf and restrengthening before landfall in LA....

GFS has been fighting that solution and changing its own solution every run but showing longterm stall over TX and then losing tropical appearance and just bringing rain to LA.

The GFS tonight appears to hate itself and is now more in agreement with the Euro showing landfall in TX but stalling much closer to the gulf and then coming back into the gulf quicker but then stalling in the gulf again and gaining energy and then makes a second landfall in TX closer to Houston and then stalling out over Houston for a day or two and appears to be moving northwest towards Dallas...

The model is still running currently but all of the above is from now until next Thursday.

The GFS is extremely bi-polar

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For someone who hasn't been keeping up, can I get a quick update on what predictions look like?

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I'm an idiot here so maybe I can give you the layman version.

Harvey is predicted to be a bad dude when he hits Tx. Will hang around 2 or so days pounding them then get moved offshore eventually being pushed into sw La and moving across the state.

The uncertainty at this point seems to be how far Harvey goes into Tx, and how far it gets pushed back out in the Gulf. Obviously farther in land means it weakens more but also means longer sustained rainfalls for Tx. Also, if it barely moves off shore it may not be able to strengthen as much due to being over the shelf before making its way into La.

If you're in La, be paying attention. If you're in coastal Tx area, you should have your shite packed and heading somewhere

ETA: while typing this I see the GFS now keeps Harvey in Tx and instead of a NE track across La sends it back up through Tx again. Was told earlier that GFS isn't a reliable model and Euro has been more consistent and the one to watch.

Yea, I don't think I want to be here anymore.

Recon finding close to 100 knot winds now

next advisory comes out in like 40 minutes

@wxtrackercody
Two simultaneous Hurricane Hunter missions into #Harvey right now. NOAA2 in northern eyewall reporting 98kt flight level winds. Big jump.

Ol Harvey has reallllllly gotten its act together in the last hour or so.