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Started By
Message
re: General Tornado Thread
Posted on 4/26/14 at 11:32 am to Scoop
Posted on 4/26/14 at 11:32 am to Scoop
quote:True. Factor in the fact that the Barksdale air show is today and tomorrow. Tens of thousands of people on the tarmac tomorrow afternoon could be a bad situation.
It's been at least 10 years, probably more, since the ArkLaTex has been under the gun like this.
Wife asked if I thought we'd have a tornado in our area. I told her that I would bet money that there will be at least one tornado warning issued in Bossier Parish between noon Sunday and noon Monday. And, given the right odds, I might bet there would be more than one issued.
2
Posted on 4/26/14 at 11:48 am to bendellee
I guess southern texas will be ok?
Posted on 4/26/14 at 11:56 am to bendellee
They will probably cancel Sunday's air show.
This post was edited on 5/4/14 at 9:38 am
Posted on 4/26/14 at 12:09 pm to GEAUXmedic
Any idea how far south the severe stuff is supposed to reach? I'm headed from Shreveport to Lafayette tomorrow and I'm trying to decide when I need to GTFO. 
Posted on 4/26/14 at 12:22 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
Any idea how far south the severe stuff is supposed to reach? I'm headed from Shreveport to Lafayette tomorrow and I'm trying to decide when I need to GTFO.
Well, Shreveport is in the bullseye tomorrow, i'd keep an eye on the weather and TBH I'd leave north LA as quick as possible, just so you don't get caught in it
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 12:34 pm to Scoop
quote:
It's been at least 10 years, probably more, since the ArkLaTex has been under the gun like this.
It has been a while since the I30 corridor has been hit. We were under a high risk the day before the Tuscaloosa tornadoes, but luckily early rain lessened the instability.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 12:37 pm to Raz4back
Latest from the storm prediction center on ARKLATEX for tomorrow:
quote:
...ARKLATEX INTO SRN MO...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS MID TO UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS SURGE NWD AND HEATING OCCURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PERFECTLY ORIENTED RELATIVE TO THE DRYLINE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...AND STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM OVER SRN AR...NRN LA...AND NERN TX. SUPERCELLS
WILL INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH AN INCREASING
TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE...AND A HIGH RISK COULD BE
ISSUED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST CORRIDOR
INCREASES.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 12:44 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
Posted on 4/26/14 at 3:56 pm to Raz4back
After looking at things today, I think the only question is when SPC goes High Risk and for how large of an area. We could possibly even see consecutive High Risk days...
Posted on 4/26/14 at 4:00 pm to rds dc
quote:
After looking at things today, I think the only question is when SPC goes High Risk and for how large of an area. We could possibly even see consecutive High Risk days...
I was thinking the same, the last 3 consecutive high risk day period was may 3-5 1999, I'm not sure we will get three days but its an interesting stat nonetheless
This post was edited on 4/26/14 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 4/26/14 at 4:12 pm to GEAUXmedic
This is just fantastic. And here it is my weekend on call. Looks like I better rest up tonight.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 4:14 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
and TBH I'd leave north LA as quick as possible, just so you don't get caught in it
Again. More great news. My job requires I go INTO the severe area. FML
Posted on 4/26/14 at 4:46 pm to 9Fiddy
A Look at Dr. Forbes' TOR:CON numbers. They are out of "10" and show the chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the given area.
Sunday:
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in the following areas (alphabetical by state):
Northwest Alabama - TOR:CON 2
Northern Arkansas - TOR:CON 6
Southern Arkansas - TOR:CON 7
West-central and southern Illinois - TOR:CON 4
Southwest Indiana - TOR:CON 1 or less
Northwest Iowa - TOR:CON 3
Southeast Iowa - TOR:CON 3 to 4
Southwest Iowa - TOR:CON 5
Eastern Kansas - TOR:CON 5
Western Kentucky - TOR:CON 3
Northern Louisiana - TOR:CON 7
Northwest Mississippi - TOR:CON 6
Northeast, central and southwest Mississippi - TOR:CON 4 to 5
Western Missouri - TOR:CON 6
Eastern Missouri - TOR:CON 4 to 5
Eastern Nebraska - TOR:CON 5
Eastern Oklahoma - TOR:CON 4
South-central and southeast South Dakota - TOR:CON 3
West Tennessee - TOR:CON 3
East Texas as far south as Houston - TOR:CON 3
Monday:
North and central Alabama - TOR:CON 5
Southwest Alabama - TOR:CON 3
Eastern Arkansas - TOR:CON 5
North Georgia - TOR:CON 3
Northwest and central Illinois - TOR:CON 4
Southern Illinois - TOR:CON 5
Southern Indiana - TOR:CON 4
North-central and eastern Iowa - TOR:CON 3
Western half of Kentucky - TOR:CON 5
Eastern half of Kentucky - TOR:CON 3
Louisiana - TOR:CON 6
Southeast Missouri - TOR:CON 5
Mississippi - TOR:CON 6
Western North Carolina - TOR:CON 2
Upstate South Carolina - TOR:CON 2
West half of Tennessee - TOR:CON 5
East half of Tennessee - TOR:CON 3
Upper coastal Texas (near Beaumont) - TOR:CON 3
Extreme southwest Virginia - TOR:CON 2
Sunday:
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in the following areas (alphabetical by state):
Northwest Alabama - TOR:CON 2
Northern Arkansas - TOR:CON 6
Southern Arkansas - TOR:CON 7
West-central and southern Illinois - TOR:CON 4
Southwest Indiana - TOR:CON 1 or less
Northwest Iowa - TOR:CON 3
Southeast Iowa - TOR:CON 3 to 4
Southwest Iowa - TOR:CON 5
Eastern Kansas - TOR:CON 5
Western Kentucky - TOR:CON 3
Northern Louisiana - TOR:CON 7
Northwest Mississippi - TOR:CON 6
Northeast, central and southwest Mississippi - TOR:CON 4 to 5
Western Missouri - TOR:CON 6
Eastern Missouri - TOR:CON 4 to 5
Eastern Nebraska - TOR:CON 5
Eastern Oklahoma - TOR:CON 4
South-central and southeast South Dakota - TOR:CON 3
West Tennessee - TOR:CON 3
East Texas as far south as Houston - TOR:CON 3
Monday:
North and central Alabama - TOR:CON 5
Southwest Alabama - TOR:CON 3
Eastern Arkansas - TOR:CON 5
North Georgia - TOR:CON 3
Northwest and central Illinois - TOR:CON 4
Southern Illinois - TOR:CON 5
Southern Indiana - TOR:CON 4
North-central and eastern Iowa - TOR:CON 3
Western half of Kentucky - TOR:CON 5
Eastern half of Kentucky - TOR:CON 3
Louisiana - TOR:CON 6
Southeast Missouri - TOR:CON 5
Mississippi - TOR:CON 6
Western North Carolina - TOR:CON 2
Upstate South Carolina - TOR:CON 2
West half of Tennessee - TOR:CON 5
East half of Tennessee - TOR:CON 3
Upper coastal Texas (near Beaumont) - TOR:CON 3
Extreme southwest Virginia - TOR:CON 2
Posted on 4/26/14 at 4:56 pm to GEAUXmedic
GEAUXmedic, I know youre all into the weather and all that. So is this going to be similar to the storms that passed through a few weeks ago?? And i have some older family members in BR... what should I tell them to prepare for?
TIA
TIA
Posted on 4/26/14 at 5:06 pm to KG5989
quote:
GEAUXmedic, I know youre all into the weather and all that. So is this going to be similar to the storms that passed through a few weeks ago?? And i have some older family members in BR... what should I tell them to prepare for?
At the moment it seems the worst of it will be north of our area, but you never know, and we probably won't really know until tomorrow. I'd say just stay alert as always, buy a weather radio and have a plan just in case.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 5:08 pm to GEAUXmedic
Appreciate it. I am not very knowledgeable when it comes to weather. I can read a simple radar and what not, but nowhere near your level
Always appreciate the weather posts from yaPosted on 4/26/14 at 5:16 pm to KG5989
quote:
Appreciate it. I am not very knowledgeable when it comes to weather. I can read a simple radar and what not, but nowhere near your level Always appreciate the weather posts from ya
but my level is just a hobbyist, there are a few meteorologists here who can explain this shite a lot better than me.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 5:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
but my level is just a hobbyist, there are a few meteorologists here who can explain this shite a lot better than me.
Peej appreciates your vote of confidence.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 5:25 pm to Wooly
Auntie Em, Auntie Em.
Posted on 4/26/14 at 5:28 pm to Bistineaubengal
quote:
They will probably cancel Sunday's air show.
They did.
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