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Posted on 5/12/22 at 1:13 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
The GFS is significantly consistent in something forming and decently consistent in the timeframe.
Forming? Sure.
This solution.
It strengthens it too fast for something forming off the Gyre in May. It's enough that the outflow is pushing back on the PV streamer making a bunch of shear in the Gulf.
If something forms, it'll be broad and sloppy. Won't have much of a chance to push back the shear and remain a sheared mess.
Posted on 5/12/22 at 1:24 pm to Duke
Yeah, this is typical GFS pre/early season BS. Way too strong of a system for the conditions it would actually be going through. Could we get a weak depression or storm? Yeah, it's possible. Are we going to see a hurricane with a pressure of 969mb? No.
Posted on 5/12/22 at 1:33 pm to Duke
quote:
broad and sloppy
Just like the OT likes em.
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