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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:40 pm to questionable
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:40 pm to questionable
quote:
Changed my trip next weekend from Destin to Punta Cana, thanks all.
I would stay home and go to the LSU game but then I would be the LSU game guy too.
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
HWRF drops this to sub 950 over the next 48hrs with a classic pinhole eye, if this forecast verifies... then wow
HWRF has been trending that way today. Can't say it isn't concerning.
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:55 pm to Dizz
Really feeling this is a FL storm based off of the setup. Just putting my 2¢ in.
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:04 pm to deuce985

This post was edited on 10/4/20 at 11:06 pm
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:05 pm to rds dc
00Z GFS shifts NW to just south of Terrebonne Bay on Friday morning.
984 mb pressure - Cat 1

984 mb pressure - Cat 1

Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:15 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
I wish the NHC would stop publishing center lines. It is highly misleading with impacts.
didn't the NHC try to do away with center lines after Katrina but people bitched and the NHC acquiesced and brought it back?
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:21 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
I wish the NHC would stop publishing center lines. It is highly misleading with impacts.
It shouldn't be misleading. If a person cannot look at a small center line (relative to the scope of a hurricane) and understand that impacts are not limited to the exact location of that centerline, they do not need to be relying upon themselves to make decisions. They should 100% listen to the NHC, the NWS, and their local mets. It is not a hard concept to grasp, and dumbing things down is not always the answer.
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:24 pm to rmnldr
Maybe but so far the models have been shifting west not east. Still early but eh, whatever. It's fitting for SELA to get smashed. Though we've ended up with lots of impacts this season we've dodged more bullets than neo in matrix. Luck has to run out somewhere.
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:30 pm to deuce985
I’d throw out GFS and Euro. I’m watching HWRF and HMON all the way. I find an eastern trend much more likely than a western trend.
I know nothing. I’m just a simpleton. Just shooting shite on here, so no one take anything I say seriously
I know nothing. I’m just a simpleton. Just shooting shite on here, so no one take anything I say seriously

Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
HWRF drops this to sub 950 over the next 48hrs with a classic pinhole eye, if this forecast verifies... then wow.
Mark Sudduth brought up an interesting point. HWRF being coupled with Sea Surface Temps and still showing that intensity is concerning. We can't argue that HWRF and HMON haven't been pretty good on intensity this season. If they continue to show that strengthening you kind of have to start thinking that the cooler water off the coast may not hamper it significantly. Couple that with the speed the storm could be moving and you have a set up for it to at least maintain some of that strength through land fall. Anyone banking on Delta falling apart on approach may be doing so prematurely.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:07 am to rds dc
The latest NHC cone has Gamma stalling for a while at TS and TD speeds before making its way up north following the path of Delta.
Does this seem probably to the board experts? The projections have it as a tropical depression on the 9th, when (soon to be) Delta is getting very close to Louisiana.
Does this seem probably to the board experts? The projections have it as a tropical depression on the 9th, when (soon to be) Delta is getting very close to Louisiana.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:46 am to Keys Open Doors
quote:
Does this seem probably to the board experts? The projections have it as a tropical depression on the 9th, when (soon to be) Delta is getting very close to Louisiana.
It's going to be catching so much shear that the wind speeds on it make sense. Between the upper low in Mexico moving NE and outflow off Delta, it's not going to have a good time.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:10 am to Duke
So I guess the one positive to having a stronger Delta is that Gamma becomes a non factor in its immediate aftermath.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:47 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
It shouldn't be misleading. If a person cannot look at a small center line (relative to the scope of a hurricane) and understand that impacts are not limited to the exact location of that centerline, they do not need to be relying upon themselves to make decisions.
While you are correct, you have just described a horrifyingly large percentage of the country
Posted on 10/5/20 at 2:35 am to Wishnitwas1998
While you were sleeping, I want to contribute since I have a GeoStorm account. Oh......I'll be in Mississippi Canyon riding it out by the way!!!!



Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:36 am to questionable
quote:
They can’t even come close to predicting a landfall spot 48 hours out, might as well start looking at the center of the cone now.
If the NHC was a betting person in roulette they would put bets on red and black. So they try not to lose, but you always have that chance you get 0 or 00.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 11:45 am
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:49 am to Duke
So on a scale of 1 to 10 on the panic scale what should we be feeling now?
Lot of people having some serious 2020 life fatigue especially after Laura and Sally missed us; even though I keep telling them that our number was up soon
Lot of people having some serious 2020 life fatigue especially after Laura and Sally missed us; even though I keep telling them that our number was up soon
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 5:51 am
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