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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:40 pm to
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
15567 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:40 pm to
quote:

Changed my trip next weekend from Destin to Punta Cana, thanks all.


I would stay home and go to the LSU game but then I would be the LSU game guy too.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66649 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:50 pm to
quote:

HWRF drops this to sub 950 over the next 48hrs with a classic pinhole eye, if this forecast verifies... then wow

HWRF has been trending that way today. Can't say it isn't concerning.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39355 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:55 pm to
Really feeling this is a FL storm based off of the setup. Just putting my 2¢ in.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:58 pm to
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1928 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:04 pm to
This post was edited on 10/4/20 at 11:06 pm
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13097 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:05 pm to
00Z GFS shifts NW to just south of Terrebonne Bay on Friday morning.

984 mb pressure - Cat 1

Posted by iliveinabox
in a box
Member since Aug 2011
24126 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:11 pm to
Frightening prospect
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
144168 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:15 pm to
quote:

I wish the NHC would stop publishing center lines. It is highly misleading with impacts.

didn't the NHC try to do away with center lines after Katrina but people bitched and the NHC acquiesced and brought it back?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66649 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:21 pm to
quote:

I wish the NHC would stop publishing center lines. It is highly misleading with impacts.

It shouldn't be misleading. If a person cannot look at a small center line (relative to the scope of a hurricane) and understand that impacts are not limited to the exact location of that centerline, they do not need to be relying upon themselves to make decisions. They should 100% listen to the NHC, the NWS, and their local mets. It is not a hard concept to grasp, and dumbing things down is not always the answer.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:24 pm to
Maybe but so far the models have been shifting west not east. Still early but eh, whatever. It's fitting for SELA to get smashed. Though we've ended up with lots of impacts this season we've dodged more bullets than neo in matrix. Luck has to run out somewhere.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39355 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:30 pm to
I’d throw out GFS and Euro. I’m watching HWRF and HMON all the way. I find an eastern trend much more likely than a western trend.

I know nothing. I’m just a simpleton. Just shooting shite on here, so no one take anything I say seriously
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66649 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 11:35 pm to
quote:

HWRF drops this to sub 950 over the next 48hrs with a classic pinhole eye, if this forecast verifies... then wow.



Mark Sudduth brought up an interesting point. HWRF being coupled with Sea Surface Temps and still showing that intensity is concerning. We can't argue that HWRF and HMON haven't been pretty good on intensity this season. If they continue to show that strengthening you kind of have to start thinking that the cooler water off the coast may not hamper it significantly. Couple that with the speed the storm could be moving and you have a set up for it to at least maintain some of that strength through land fall. Anyone banking on Delta falling apart on approach may be doing so prematurely.
Posted by Keys Open Doors
In hiding with Tupac & XXXTentacion
Member since Dec 2008
32552 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:07 am to
The latest NHC cone has Gamma stalling for a while at TS and TD speeds before making its way up north following the path of Delta.

Does this seem probably to the board experts? The projections have it as a tropical depression on the 9th, when (soon to be) Delta is getting very close to Louisiana.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:46 am to
quote:

Does this seem probably to the board experts? The projections have it as a tropical depression on the 9th, when (soon to be) Delta is getting very close to Louisiana.



It's going to be catching so much shear that the wind speeds on it make sense. Between the upper low in Mexico moving NE and outflow off Delta, it's not going to have a good time.
Posted by Keys Open Doors
In hiding with Tupac & XXXTentacion
Member since Dec 2008
32552 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:10 am to
So I guess the one positive to having a stronger Delta is that Gamma becomes a non factor in its immediate aftermath.
Posted by Wishnitwas1998
where TN, MS, and AL meet
Member since Oct 2010
61682 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:47 am to
quote:

It shouldn't be misleading. If a person cannot look at a small center line (relative to the scope of a hurricane) and understand that impacts are not limited to the exact location of that centerline, they do not need to be relying upon themselves to make decisions.


While you are correct, you have just described a horrifyingly large percentage of the country
Posted by Potchafa
Avoyelles
Member since Jul 2016
3821 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 2:35 am to
While you were sleeping, I want to contribute since I have a GeoStorm account. Oh......I'll be in Mississippi Canyon riding it out by the way!!!!

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 3:30 am to




Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
9948 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:36 am to
quote:

They can’t even come close to predicting a landfall spot 48 hours out, might as well start looking at the center of the cone now.


If the NHC was a betting person in roulette they would put bets on red and black. So they try not to lose, but you always have that chance you get 0 or 00.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 11:45 am
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
11300 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:49 am to
So on a scale of 1 to 10 on the panic scale what should we be feeling now?

Lot of people having some serious 2020 life fatigue especially after Laura and Sally missed us; even though I keep telling them that our number was up soon
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 5:51 am
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