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re: "Covid deaths are a lagging indicator"

Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:55 pm to
Posted by FLTech
the A
Member since Sep 2017
12405 posts
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:55 pm to
Wait til after the election and it will look like a pubic hair
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
117709 posts
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:57 pm to
quote:

I'm sure Louisiana is cooking the books, too.




By starting with, ......a roux. You guessed it.
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
103070 posts
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:58 pm to
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 9:58 pm
Posted by NoSaint
Member since Jun 2011
11281 posts
Posted on 8/19/20 at 10:02 pm to
quote:

Shouldn't "case" and "death" curves be the same shape, yet just shifted 3 weeks or so?



On a bar napkin theory level - sure.

Changing demographics actually getting sick, or getting tested as well as differences in regional health care, and evolving treatments among a variety of other factors can change it.
Posted by NoSaint
Member since Jun 2011
11281 posts
Posted on 8/19/20 at 10:08 pm to
quote:

they continue to test more and find more cases to make decisions on.

Decisions should be made mostly on the basis of hospital capacity but they’re not.


It’s a multi prong approach. More tests means more cases documented but also ideal should mean lower positivity rate.

Rate and density of spread through a population will obviously effect the anticipated hospital needs.

Where I see the discussion fall apart is people thinking cases only went up due to high testing despite positivity rate also rising. Heavy testing and inclusion of lower risk people should see the positivity rate drop and indicate less risk to health care facilities even if picking up a few more cases in the total count
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9361 posts
Posted on 8/20/20 at 4:27 am to
quote:

"Covid deaths are a lagging indicator"

Are they?

Yes.

What kind of question is this?
quote:

People love to say that to reason with why Louisiana's deaths are staying suspiciously high. Hospitalizations and deaths in Arizona. The charts rise, peak, and fall at the exact same time. The deaths chart is slightly offset so it looks a little off but they both peak in the July 15-17 time frame.

There are only two ways to become “un-hospitalized”.. you either go home or you die.

Show me the LA chart with suspiciously high death rates that you’re referring to? The Arizona chart is kind of useless without that context. I’m willing to bet money that the difference has to do with the “date” being the actual date of death (meaning new deaths reported today are plotted against the day they occurred, effectively changing the past data each day) vs. the date of report (meaning all new deaths reported today, regardless of when they happened, are plotted on today’s date).

That’s why your AZ chart shows less than 20 deaths per day for the past week (falling to basically zero) despite the fact that Arizona reported 105 new deaths today and 148 new deaths on August 12.
Posted by dgnx6
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
68620 posts
Posted on 8/20/20 at 7:41 am to
We have a bunch of black people that don't abide by any social distancing or mask wearing policies while out in the street. I saw a bunch of BLM protesters and the only people not wearing masks were some black men.
Posted by TheBoo
South to Louisiana
Member since Aug 2012
4507 posts
Posted on 8/20/20 at 8:03 am to
quote:

Changing demographics actually getting sick, or getting tested as well as differences in regional health care, and evolving treatments among a variety of other factors can change it.


I was thinking more along the lines of when a guy who tested positive dies in a car wreck driving home from the clinic is added to the death list it tends to skew the numbers a bit.
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 8:05 am
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