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Message
re: Coronavirus vs cancer
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:30 pm to Privateer 2007
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:30 pm to Privateer 2007
One thing I don’t understand about this arguments, how much is enough?
I mean is your point here that we shouldn’t really begin to care about a flu like illness until after it kills a certain percentage of the total US population?
I mean is your point here that we shouldn’t really begin to care about a flu like illness until after it kills a certain percentage of the total US population?
0
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:30 pm to DCtiger1
quote:No, I act as if the data currently indicates 1% mortality rate, which it does. If that changes, I'll change my mind.
You act as if this thing has a 100% mortality rate
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:31 pm to Klark Kent
quote:No, this is the exact opposite of guessing. The data currently says about 1%. Assuming more of a flu rate at 0.1% is a wild guess.
so a bunch of guessing. cool.
Let's at least try to be honest here.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:31 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
Privateer 2007
God you’re stupid
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:33 pm to Odysseus32
It’s not my responsibility to ensure your health and safety. It’s not your responsibility for me. In the end, your chances of dying from cancer are exponentially higher than dying of covid-19. By all means, keep scream to the heavens about how deadly this is.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:35 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:Which is about 1,650 people per day. Do you know how many are dying per day with covid? I'll save you the trouble of looking it up: it's 2,000 per day and climbing.
Cancer kills upwards of 600k Americans/year.
Now, if there was a contagious cancer that killed people in less than a month, and in less than 2 months it exploded onto the scene and doubled our daily cancer deaths, would you care about that shite?
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:38 pm to DCtiger1
quote:Today, right now, that is not true. More people are dying daily from covid than cancer. And if you go out and interact with people daily, your personal chances of dying from covid increase dramatically.
In the end, your chances of dying from cancer are exponentially higher than dying of covid-19.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:50 pm to Korkstand
You’re using average daily deaths of cancer vs. current death rate of covid at its peak 
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:51 pm to DCtiger1
quote:
You’re using average daily deaths of cancer vs. current death rate of covid at its peak
We are at least 3 days away from even guessing that it has peaked.
And what's the problem with using average daily cancer deaths? It's not like it varies with the seasons. Or with interpersonal interactions. Or anything, really. Cancer is mostly random. And that's exactly why we don't panic about it all the time.
We know how covid spreads, and we know how to prevent that. But there are also a lot of unknowns. So when you combine the unknowns with the knowledge of how to slow the spread, we do what we can to slow the spread, at least until we know more.
This is really, really simple shite.
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:52 pm to Privateer 2007
Why are people so goddamn stupid
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:52 pm to Korkstand
I’m right here dumbass
First reported US Covid death was February 29. 20089 deaths as of today. 42 days since first death. Not 2000 average by a long shot. Didn’t even have 2000 deaths reported today in the us
First reported US Covid death was February 29. 20089 deaths as of today. 42 days since first death. Not 2000 average by a long shot. Didn’t even have 2000 deaths reported today in the us
This post was edited on 4/11/20 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:57 pm to Korkstand
You're wasting your time with that goober.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 1:58 pm to DCtiger1
quote:I edited the post.
I’m right here dumbass
You were on top of this shite until that pause. I was afraid you had run out of dumb things to say, but you proved me wrong.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:04 pm to Korkstand
quote:
And what's the problem with using average daily cancer deaths?
Nothing except you aren’t using average daily covid deaths in comparison.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:04 pm to DCtiger1
quote:
First reported US Covid death was February 29. 20089 deaths as of today. 42 days since first death. Not 2000 average by a long shot.
So you think comparing averages this way makes a lick of sense?
What you just said is that this virus has gone from zero to being the #1 cause of daily deaths in this country in less than 6 weeks. No big deal, right?
quote:You realize it is still "today", right? I believe daily reporting ends at 10ET. Whether it reaches 2k today or not, it will most definitely surpass both cancer and heart disease as the #1 killer of the day yet again.
Didn’t even have 2000 deaths reported today in the us
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:05 pm to DCtiger1
quote:If your stupidity could be summed up in one sentence, it would be this one.
Nothing except you aren’t using average daily covid deaths in comparison.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:05 pm to Korkstand
quote:
So you think comparing averages this way makes a lick of sense?
You think using a one day peak number is statistically and intellectually honest.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:11 pm to DCtiger1
quote:It is by far the most relevant number to indicate the extent of the problem, especially given it took mere weeks to reach that point.
You think using a one day peak number is statistically and intellectually honest.
Do you not realize that the contagiousness is the issue here?
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:14 pm to Korkstand
quote:
We currently have ZERO data that indicates that covid is anything less than 10X more deadly than the flu
There are multiple studies that put the mortality rate between .6 and .3. IHME is using .5 for its model. This data would make it between 6 and 1.5 times the range of a typical flue season.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 2:16 pm to Korkstand
quote:
61k American lives in 2018
So Corona has killed a third of that in a month and a half roughly. Let's not social distance and see how many it kills in 12 months. Honestly this seasonal flu argument is dumb. If you are going off that number (which is the high end of the 27k-61k estimate and also was an abnormally high flu year) then the flu still killed 5k on average per month. Simple math.
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