re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

quote:

---

I thought it was like 320 out of the 634 positive tests they confirmed were asymptomatic?

---

Asymptomatic at the time of the test but then developed symptoms later. The number you are looking for is “true asymptomatics” that never developed symptoms.

I read it a few times to make sure I was interpreting it right, but maybe someone can check me.

Ahh I see.

quote:

---

fricking New Orleans... quarantine the whole city.

---

Blow up the bridges in and out.

quote:

---

BTW GEAUXMedic, is there a source for that quote or are you making that statement apparently as someone with some insight?

---

There was, but the tweet was deleted. I had the contents of it saved in another post. LINK

Corona Is Slowing Down, Humanity Will Survive, Says Biophysicist Michael Levitt

quote:

---

Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who teaches structural biology at Stanford University and spends much of his time in Tel Aviv, unexpectedly became a household name in China, offering the public reassurance during the peak of the country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. Levitt did not discover a treatment or a cure, just did what he does best: crunched the numbers. The statistics led him to the conclusion that, contrary to the grim forecasts being branded about, the spread of the virus will come to a halt.

---

quote:

---

The calming messages Levitt sent to his friends in China were translated into Chinese and passed from person to person, making him a popular subject for interviews in the Asian nation. His forecasts turned out to be correct: the number of new cases reported each day started to fall as of February 7. A week later, the mortality rate started falling as well.

---

Whoever keeps downvoting my optimistic posts... why?

quote:

---

Whoever keeps downvoting my optimistic posts... why?

---

It’s not me, but today I had a cup of coffee from the office communal coffee pot. Also filled up my water bottle twice from the community cooler.

Went to the gym and drank from 3 different water fountains.

Went inside a gas station .

quote:

---

Whoever keeps downvoting my optimistic posts... why?

---

The same reason why people down vote the pessimistic posts. Battle lines have been drawn and both sides want to be right. Sadly there isn't much middle ground on this.

quote:

---

Asymptomatic at the time of the test but then developed symptoms later. The number you are looking for is “true asymptomatics” that never developed symptoms.

---

I think there was a Japanese study on people that they brought back from Wuhan or off the Diamond Princess.

The jist was they had 12 people who tested positive and had no symptoms at the time. They watched them and 7 out of the 12 developed symptoms over the course of 14 (maybe 17?) days. So 5 stayed asymptomatic.

I'll try to to see if I bookmarked that study/paper and post the link.

But take it with a grain of salt until I find it again. I could be wrong.

Edit: It's a preprint paper, so still take it with a grain of salt ATM.

Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19)

quote:

---

Figure 1 illustrates the flow of the evacuation process. By 6 February 2020 a 35 total of N=565 citizens were evacuated. Among them, pN=63 (11.2%) were considered 36 symptomatic upon arrival based on (1) temperature screening before disembarkation, 37 and (2) face-to-face interviews eliciting information on symptoms including fever, 38 cough, and other non-specific symptoms consistent with COVID-19. All passengers 39 additionally undertook reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) 40 testing, and m=5 asymptomatic and n=7 symptomatic passengers tested positive for 41 2019-nCoV

---

quote:

---

The asymptomatic ratio is thus 44 estimated at 41.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 16.7%, 66.7%) among evacuees. 45 Because fourteen days have elapsed since their departure from Wuhan—longer than the 46 95th percentile estimate of the COVID-19 incubation period (Li et al., 2020; Linton et 47 al., 2020)—there is very little probability that the five virus-positive asymptomatic 48 individuals will develop symptoms. Should one of the five becomes symptomatic in the 49 future, the overall asymptomatic ratio would decrease to 33.3% (95% CI: 8.3%, 58.3%).

---