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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/4/20 at 7:16 pm to slackster
Posted on 2/4/20 at 7:16 pm to slackster
quote:
Paet of the calculation of R0 is the contact rate. The same virus in New York City will have a higher R0 than that virus in Wyoming.
Negative. R-O, once it’s determined, is a behavioral mathematical constant used for modeling purposes.
It doesn’t change as the outbreak progresses, nor by location.
R-O is attributed to the virus. There isn’t a Chinese R-O and an American one, in spite of the dramatic difference of spread.
2
Posted on 2/4/20 at 7:16 pm to Burhead
quote:
Per the BNO update we had our biggest single day jump in international cases with 38.
That was after 25 yesterday. There are also reports out of African countries of hospitals putting out request for testing supplies. They have suspected cases and no way to test. Also, travel is not being restricted between China and many places in Africa.
Posted on 2/4/20 at 7:26 pm to Burhead
It looks like we need to be prepared for some jumps in confirmed cases:
Reddit link - Talks about how testing is being ramped up in China
Also, they have a cruise ship in Japan that is quarantined atm.
Reddit link - Talks about how testing is being ramped up in China
quote:
Disclaimer: The sources I'm using and that I linked here are official from Hubei/Wuhan Government. You can believe them or not, I'm just explaining what they are saying, since people are very confused about the number of infected people, and some guys are creating myths to whether create panic people or downplay the risks.
quote:
February 3rd Hubei issued a "Military Order", they are pressuring all labs to work at full speed and digest all stock within 2 days, it means that this week we will see significant increase on daily confirmed cases. I'm not sure if they can run in max speed in two days, but the Laboratory of the Hubei Provincial People's Hospital had the highest capability (500 people per day) and they managed to double the speed and now they can test 1000 people per day and they are working 24h daily (3 shifts) and have enough stock of PCR Kits, they said they will increase it to 5000 tests per day within the next 3 days, that means we will see at least a ~6000 confirmed cases daily this week, but it can be much higher if other labs also increase their daily tests. It doesn't mean the disease got out of control, it means they are testing more people now. Since there are over 23,000 suspected cases (with symptoms) and I-don't-know-how-much quarantined people that had close contact with infected people, the numbers of confirmed cases will lift off probably even double or triple the current number (~20000 confirmed cases) in 1 week.
quote:
And if you see 10 or even 20 thousand of new confirmed cases in a single day during the next 2 weeks, don't get desperate, it only means China labs are working hard to test all suspected cases that have been pilling up for more than 1 month now, it doesn't mean the rate of infections will keep high, once they tested all suspected, the daily confirmed cases will drop very quickly, so we can wait for an "mountain" on the graph where the confirmed cases go up like crazy and then go down like crazy until it reach the "real" daily infections that finally will be safe to use to make reliable predictions about the future of the virus.
Also, they have a cruise ship in Japan that is quarantined atm.
This post was edited on 2/4/20 at 7:27 pm
Posted on 2/4/20 at 7:36 pm to bbrownso
The Chinese numbers are the most important, but also the most unreliable. We will know the truth in two more cycles or about two weeks. I’m reading R0’s of 4. I hope this number 4 is wrong.
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:03 pm to Dominate308
The latest Ro I saw was listed at 2.24 - 3.58.
Saw this study from a MedCram video earlier today. They seem to do nice informational explanation videos.
Another good channel is Dr. John Campbell
Saw this study from a MedCram video earlier today. They seem to do nice informational explanation videos.
Another good channel is Dr. John Campbell
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:04 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Negative. R-O, once it’s determined, is a behavioral mathematical constant used for modeling purposes.
It doesn’t change as the outbreak progresses, nor by location.
R-O is attributed to the virus. There isn’t a Chinese R-O and an American one, in spite of the dramatic difference of spread.
Contact rate is calculated in R0, is it not?
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:11 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Negative. R-O, once it’s determined, is a behavioral mathematical constant used for modeling purposes.
It doesn’t change as the outbreak progresses, nor by location.
R-O is attributed to the virus. There isn’t a Chinese R-O and an American one, in spite of the dramatic difference of spread.
Most in depth studies I've read on R0 state it is not a constant.
This link talks about how it's not a constant and varies across populations and regions...
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:25 pm to slackster
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:25 pm to tiggerthetooth
Why are we clinging to SARS stats when all of that is done and tabulated. This thing is still going. Thankfully not picking up steam outside of China... yet.
This post was edited on 2/4/20 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:43 pm to LSUnation78
LINK
quote:
The U.S., with 11 diagnosed cases so far, plans to quarantine at military bases potentially more than 1,000 Americans evacuated from China’s Hubei province. State health departments are activating emergency programs to isolate the potentially infected—a piecemeal approach that could range from specialized facilities to hotels. Some hospitals have tents in stock to use as emergency isolation wards.
This post was edited on 2/4/20 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:45 pm to Bullfrog
quote:
Preliminary but scary:
Very preliminary (with an extremely small sample size - 8 people who donated lung tissue).
It's also a bit old in terms of information (was posted Jan 26).
quote:
Why are we clinging to SARS stats when all of that is done and tabulated. This thing is still going. Thankfully not picking up steam outside of China... yet.
Because it's the most well-known coronavirus outbreak (even if it's not the most recent - that would be MERS).
This post was edited on 2/4/20 at 8:46 pm
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:47 pm to Bullfrog
quote:
Preliminary but scary:
Severe infection by 2019-nCov could result in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis, causing death in approximately 15% of infected individuals1,2.
So 15% of those who kick this thing will ultimately die due to side effects?
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:48 pm to Lsut81
I read it as more along the lines the other will kill 15% of the infected but I’m no medical doctor or researcher.
Posted on 2/4/20 at 8:58 pm to Bullfrog
I’m on day 13 of leaving HK... And I’ve got a sore throat starting.
Am I dead?
Am I dead?
Posted on 2/4/20 at 9:00 pm to slackster
quote:
Contact rate is calculated in R0, is it not?
Ro is a multi variate function of contact rate.
A little different.
Posted on 2/4/20 at 9:03 pm to slackster
quote:
Most in depth studies I've read on R0 state it is not a constant.
Your own link says it is.
I’m assuming your are focusing on the statement in the summary where it said it is not a biological constant?
Biological constant doesn’t equal mathematical constant. Also, it being a “constant” doesn’t mean there aren’t multiple ways to calculate it.
One thing your post does bring up which I did not realize is elements of Socio behavioral alterations being warranted changes in contact rate.
Could have sworn the definition of Ro assumes a hypothetical, fully vulnerable population that doesn’t help isolate, and the final value is an average of all transmissions and therefore all variations of behavior frequency.
I will say this though: if it IS region specific, and Ro has little applicability outside of study location.....when that makes all the crazy hysteria on the topic here and Twitter two weeks ago even more fricking absurd.
This post was edited on 2/4/20 at 9:16 pm
Posted on 2/4/20 at 9:03 pm to Lsut81
quote:
I’m on day 13 of leaving HK... And I’ve got a sore throat starting.
Am I dead?
Mods. Quarantine this man.
Posted on 2/4/20 at 9:05 pm to MikeyFL
quote:
Mods. Quarantine this man.
It’s a sinus infection. Damn weather changes are killing me.
No other symptoms, no fever, no cough, no nothing.
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