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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 6/1/20 at 9:20 am to Sasquatch Smash
Posted on 6/1/20 at 9:20 am to Sasquatch Smash
I’m going to take a wild guess and say that the media won’t say anything about that 
0
Posted on 6/1/20 at 10:47 am to Sasquatch Smash
check this out
Area under curve A and curve B are identical. What does this mean? Likely, that many people outlived their lifespan in a weak flu season and then COVID came along and they didn't make it. This is supported by the average age of death from COVID being equal to the average life expectancy.
They were delayed deaths.
This is what I had been saying for awhile to the "excess deaths crowd" like buckeyevol. You really can't use that statistic until all the data is in.
Overall deaths are 0.3% higher than 2017-2018
Does this need it's own thread? I feel like this first graph is pretty important.
Sweden is even more dramatic. There were less than normal amount of deaths last year and even considering the catch up that occurred with covid they are still below other years averages
Area under curve A and curve B are identical. What does this mean? Likely, that many people outlived their lifespan in a weak flu season and then COVID came along and they didn't make it. This is supported by the average age of death from COVID being equal to the average life expectancy.
They were delayed deaths.
This is what I had been saying for awhile to the "excess deaths crowd" like buckeyevol. You really can't use that statistic until all the data is in.
Overall deaths are 0.3% higher than 2017-2018
Does this need it's own thread? I feel like this first graph is pretty important.
Sweden is even more dramatic. There were less than normal amount of deaths last year and even considering the catch up that occurred with covid they are still below other years averages
This post was edited on 6/1/20 at 10:53 am
Posted on 6/1/20 at 10:54 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Likely, that many people outlived their lifespan in a weak flu season and then COVID came along and they didn't make it. This is supported by the average age of death from COVID being equal to the average life expectancy.
They were delayed deaths.
I said this a few weeks ago.
The 2017-2018 flu season was bad.
2018-2019 was kind of mild.
Looks like 2019-2020 was very mild.
Seems like most of the deaths were people that didn't get caught by the thing that usually catches them, and then unfortunately got hammered by this.
Are these from El Gato Malo's twitter? He's been a pretty good follow.
This post was edited on 6/1/20 at 10:56 am
Posted on 6/1/20 at 10:59 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Are these from El Gato Malo's twitter? He's been a pretty good follow.
good catch
found him in TES rabbit holePosted on 6/1/20 at 1:02 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
TES rabbit hole
TES?
The Ethical Skeptic?
This post was edited on 6/1/20 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 6/1/20 at 2:47 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Talk of Sweden's numbers.
("He" being State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the Public Health Agency.)
Comparing countries is pointless.
quote:
"In Sweden, anybody who has the diagnosis of COVID-19 and dies within 30 days after that is called a COVID-19 case, irrespective of the actual cause of death. And we know that in many other countries there are other ways of counting that are used," he told AFP.
("He" being State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the Public Health Agency.)
Comparing countries is pointless.
quote:
Three-quarters of those who have died have been either in nursing homes or receiving at-home care.
quote:
It noted that a total of 11,000 nursing home residents died in January-April this year, compared with 10,000 during the same period a year ago.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 2:56 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Wait, so Sweden’s numbers might even be cooked? And they are the worst case scenario?
This is hilarious
This is hilarious
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:12 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Does this need it's own thread?
Yes
Posted on 6/1/20 at 6:24 pm to WaWaWeeWa
And apparently Finland doesn’t count deaths that occur outside of hospitals...even those in nursing homes.
No wonder their numbers are so good.
Granted, this link is over a month old.
No wonder their numbers are so good.
Granted, this link is over a month old.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 7:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
There has been tons of proof for a while now that smokers are much less likely to end up in the hospital with COVID-19. What we haven't known for sure is whether that is because smoking prevents infection, or whether smoking simply results in less serious disease.
A new preprint out today from Israel indicates that both are true.
They found that smoking cut the risk of testing positive by over half; among those who tested positive, smoking cut the risk of death by over a quarter.
A new preprint out today from Israel indicates that both are true.
They found that smoking cut the risk of testing positive by over half; among those who tested positive, smoking cut the risk of death by over a quarter.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 7:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
I think the only constant is this virus doesn’t follow any of the rules
Posted on 6/1/20 at 8:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
Today was a great day for national testing numbers.
* Only 16191 new cases, the fewest since March
* Only 469 new deaths, the fewest since March
* 403,791 new tests run, making the 5th day in a row with over 400k tests
* Positive test rate of 4.0% is the lowest ever
* Average number of cases for the past seven days is over 6% lower than the average of the previous seven days
Most of y'all laughed at me when I first said that eliminating the virus should be the goal.
* Only 16191 new cases, the fewest since March
* Only 469 new deaths, the fewest since March
* 403,791 new tests run, making the 5th day in a row with over 400k tests
* Positive test rate of 4.0% is the lowest ever
* Average number of cases for the past seven days is over 6% lower than the average of the previous seven days
Most of y'all laughed at me when I first said that eliminating the virus should be the goal.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 9:45 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Looters >>> COVID 19
Time to unsticky this thread.
Time to unsticky this thread.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 6:13 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Only 469 new deaths, the fewest since March
Weren't we told by the NYT that we would be at 3,000 deaths per day on June 1?
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:09 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Weren't we told by the NYT that we would be at 3,000 deaths per day on June 1?
Lots of predictions have turned out wrong, because it's really hard to predict what's going to happen with a novel virus that we don't fully understand. I certainly made some bad predictions early on. Why, SloaneRanger, I'll bet that even you've changed your mind since this May 7 post.
LINK
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:22 am to GOP_Tiger
Sorry chief, I don't know what your issue with that post is, but I stand by it. And I believe the approach of carrying on with normal activity and living with the virus as best we can is the approach we are headed toward.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:26 am to WaWaWeeWa
Preprint of NY state seroprevalence.
quote:
Among 15,101 adults with suitable DBSspecimens, 1,887 (12.5%) were reactive using a validated SARS-CoV-2 IgG microsphere immunoassay (sensitivity 87.9%, specificity 99.75%). Following post-stratification weighting on region, sex, age, and race and ethnicity and adjustment for assay characteristics, estimated cumulative incidence through March 29 was 14.0% (95% CI: 13.3-14.7%), corresponding to 2,139,300 (95% CI: 2,035,800-2,242,800) infection-experienced adults.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:49 am to SloaneRanger
Confirmed new cases are down 25% for this past week compared to that time four weeks ago, while we're testing over 60% more people.
It's hard to understand the extent of the real drop, because the massive increase in testing availability masks the true decline. So, look at the IMHE model, where it shows the estimated number of true infections. On May 7th, there were 124,923 estimated new infections, while the estimate for today is 44,000. That would put the true decline at about 65%.
And you still don't think that we can essentially get rid of the virus until there's a vaccine? OK. I'd honestly like to better understand that pessimism, if you don't mind explaining it.
It's hard to understand the extent of the real drop, because the massive increase in testing availability masks the true decline. So, look at the IMHE model, where it shows the estimated number of true infections. On May 7th, there were 124,923 estimated new infections, while the estimate for today is 44,000. That would put the true decline at about 65%.
And you still don't think that we can essentially get rid of the virus until there's a vaccine? OK. I'd honestly like to better understand that pessimism, if you don't mind explaining it.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:25 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
estimated cumulative incidence through March 29 was 14.0%
So, it should be twice that now.
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