re: China test fires massive new lCBM

That thing looks like a gas guzzler. Obama and co are going to want to slap an international carbon tax on those things. The Chinese are going to be fricked when they find out our leftists are not going to tolerate their global warming machines and will see to it that the Chinese pay their fair share to offset the emissions. This will make the whole program insolvent and this will force them to scrap it.

That it is tested in an election year is no accident. Nor is the Russian saber rattling.

quote:

---

Sure, any country that would attack the US has to basically ignore the economic impact of such an attack, which is precisely the reason why such an attack would never occur. That isn't to say we should take things lightly, because we have to protect ourselves from the illogical, but there is no practical advantage for any superpower to attack another superpower. 

---

History has shown us time and time again this doesn't stop these wars from happening. There are too many other factors and variables that come into play. Even mutually assured destruction nearly failed on a number of occasions to prevent war.

quote:

---

Love that movie, really an underrated classic.

---

Great movie all the way through.

Might have to spin it up again soon.

quote:

---

Sure, any country that would attack the US has to basically ignore the economic impact of such an attack, which is precisely the reason why such an attack would never occur. That isn't to say we should take things lightly, because we have to protect ourselves from the illogical, but there is no practical advantage for any superpower to attack another superpower.

If China attacked the US, it would be detrimental to the Chinese economy and their balance sheet. It would also spark a global recession that would pit the rest of the superpowers against China. Look at what happens in the markets when growth slows down or recedes in China or the US. Mutually assured destruction has grown from a physical standpoint to an economic standpoint as well. Globalization - as unpopular as it may be on the Political Talk - is probably the most effective defense the US has from the rest of the world.

---

Agreed! Globalization probably has lowered the chances of another world war.

My argument though is that all it takes is one person who feels the benefits of victory outweighs the cost for things to go haywire.

I have read a lot of hypothetical scenarios regarding a China Vs US war. Each of those scenarios involve an somewhat arrogant Chinese nationalist who doesn't fully appreciate the intricacies of a global economy and has drank the "China is too mighty to be tamed" koolaid.

The latest book I read explained how a conflict in the South China Sea could lead to a Sino-US war.

quote:

---

If China attacked the US, it would be detrimental to the Chinese economy and their balance sheet. It would also spark a global recession that would pit the rest of the superpowers against China. Look at what happens in the markets when growth slows down or recedes in China or the US. Mutually assured destruction has grown from a physical standpoint to an economic standpoint as well. Globalization - as unpopular as it may be on the Political Talk - is probably the most effective defense the US has from the rest of the world.

---

From the link in the OP....

quote:

---

Mark Stokes, an expert on the Chinese military and ex-Pentagon analyst, said: "China and Russia are increasingly coordinating their military forces against the United States and that China’s program of enabling North Korea and Iran to become nuclear missile powers is nearing completion.”

---

These countries are not out friends. If (against the odds) war was to break out between us and China, Russia would jump in... on the side of China. They'd see it as their chance to strike while we're tied up and already bloodied.

Great Britain would come fight by our side for sure. France might join in, then again they might not. But the sad truth is they've both cut the hell out of their military back. There's not that much help they'd be able to send. The rest of Europe would sit on the sidelines desperately praying Russia didn't move westward. Their commitment to the NATO alliance would be shown to be quite shallow. And even if they wanted to help us, the only countries in Europe who can project even a modest force outside of Europe are GB & France. The rest of Europe, including Germany couldn't send help even if they wanted. They lack the capability.

South Korea would fight along side us, of course being that North Korea is China's vassal state, the South Koreans would be busy mowing down a few million crazed North Koreans trying to breakthrough the DMZ in human wave style attacks, all while also trying to silence a few thousand North Korean artillery pieces zeroed in on Seoul.

We'd also probably get Australia, Japan, and Taiwan on our side who would throw in whatever help they could. Of course Taiwan has a few thousand missiles aimed at them right across the Taiwan straight so right after war broke out that island country would be reduced to a smoldering slag pile. Japan likewise would be very much in range of missile launches from both China and North Korea.

Perhaps Canada might come help with what little military force they've got left.

And that's about it. There would be no "rest of the superpowers" coming to our aid. We'd have GB, maybe France, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and probably Australia. I guess it's possible we could negotiate with India to get them in on our side since there is a lot of bad blood between them and China.

quote:

---

The latest book I read explained how a conflict in the South China Sea could lead to a Sino-US war.

---

Many of the things I've read about that area basically equate China to an ally of ours. In essence, the greatest defense the US has against North Korean aggression is our economical relationship with China. The argument is that North Korean aggression would pull in the US to support South Korea while China would support North Korea, and China wants no part in that squabble. The idea is that China would squash North Korea before they let those fools draw them into a war with the US.

quote:

---

This was also the line of thinking in the early 20th century. The experts at that time all thought the prospect of a general war in Europe between the major powers (Great Britain, German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire, France, and Russian Empire) was virtually impossible due to how all their economies were so intertwined together. They were proven very wrong in July 1914.

---

I know there are plenty of examples in history where that line of thinking proved erroneous, but you cannot deny that we are at an unprecedented level of globalization and that is being strengthened every day. It doesn't eliminate the chance of war, but certainly we can agree that it provides additional safeguards that don't exist without it.

I don't want to turn this into the Political Talk, but it is one of he concerns I have with Trump's trade plans. I don't believe they're feasible in the first place, purely from an economical standpoint, but I also worry that they could remove the economic hurdles that keep our enemies at bay.

quote:

---

Dongfeng

---