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re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2

Posted on 12/20/17 at 8:40 am to
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18016 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 8:40 am to
Yeah the Buzzfeed thread title could probably use an update.

FWIW here's the local office forecast discussions.

NWS Houston:
quote:

Model consensus remains uneven with regard to timing (with GFS still faster than the ECMWF), but will be keeping with the on-going grid timing of a Fri afternoon FROPA across SE TX. Not a lot of change with the high POPS either as this boundary moves southward. MOS guidance keeping with much colder/drier weather through the holiday weekend with a couple nights of widespread freezing/below freezing temps (Sun/Mon).



NWS New Orleans:
quote:

The next major system should start to impact the area late Friday into Saturday. the cold air does not really push into the region until after the precipitation ends. There is a little bit of difference in progression with this system between the GFS and ECMWF, but generally within 6 hours of each other. Showers and storms will be possible on Saturday. The sounding profiles aren`t really robust or point to a significant severe weather episode. However, I can not rule out a few strong storms Saturday. Second surge of colder air should arrive Sunday and could squeeze out a few more areas of light rain during the day. Christmas Eve evening and Christmas Day, as well as Tuesday look to be mostly dry. Freezing temperatures will be possible over most of the area Christmas morning and Tuesday morning before the surface high shifts eastward bringing milder weather back to the area Wednesday


This post was edited on 12/20/17 at 8:44 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49205 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 9:24 am to
quote:

Yeah the Buzzfeed thread title could probably use an update.

Fair point. Models have really, REALLY backed off the epic cold temperatures. I updated the title to include New Years as well since models are starting to show some activity around that time frame for us.
Posted by Box Geauxrilla
Member since Jun 2013
19213 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:07 am to
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100559 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:25 am to
Hopefully this will push the ducks down
Posted by Trout Bandit
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2012
14861 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Ought to be good for Breckenridge and all the resorts east of the divide.

Summit County is west of the divide.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18016 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:44 am to
Still should be a nice cool crisp Christmas for us. And not cold enough to where I'd have to bring in my avocado and lemon while we're in BR.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49205 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:44 am to
GFS and Candian are seeing a big cold front on 12/28.

Late night 12/27:
Canadian:

GFS:


Early Morning 12/28:
Canadian:

GFS:


6:00am 12/28:
Canadian:

GFS:


12:00 noon 12/28:
Canadian:

GFS:


6:00am 12/29:
Canadian:

GFS:




BONUS:
6:00am 12/28
Canadian:


Late Friday 12/29 :
GFS:


Posted by CuseTiger
Member since Jul 2013
8953 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:56 am to
quote:

Late Friday 12/29 :
GFS:



Supposed to fly Newark to Orlando on the 29th...If I don't make it to disney for new years, we're gonna have problems. Already gonna have to deal with flying through the rain/t-storms in LA, DC, and Philly this saturday, doesn't look like I can win with traveling this christmas season.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18016 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:57 am to
Yeah I'm convinced the GFS is just out to troll us.
Posted by Mac
Forked Island, USA
Member since Nov 2007
14785 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:57 am to
quote:

nd not cold enough to where I'd have to bring in my avocado and lemon while we're in BR.



You're growing avocados in BR?
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18016 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 10:59 am to
Houston. Going to BR for Christmas. It's a variety that can take a light freeze, but if temps were going to be in the 20s I'd put it in the garage while we're gone. It's in a big arse pot so it's kind of a hassle.
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:07 am to
These websites see how many more clicks they get when they post models like that so they are manipulating the data

All the bread and milk companies are in on it


And Breweries and distilleries

They saw how much money is to be made over hurricane prep and now they figured out how to extend their money making season into winter.
Posted by CuseTiger
Member since Jul 2013
8953 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:07 am to
quote:

Yeah I'm convinced the GFS is just out to troll us




Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49205 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:10 am to


Wow, I didn't see that one. It's so far out though.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49205 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:11 am to
CHECK THIS frickING shite OUT





Can only assume that single-digit area would be snow/ice coverage areas.

Pretty sure the GFS is on meth.
Posted by jdd48
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
23451 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:21 am to
Jesus - single digit temps in south LA??
This post was edited on 12/20/17 at 11:23 am
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:30 am to
quote:

Pretty sure the GFS is on meth.


Mother fricker needs an intervention!
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42049 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:35 am to
Wow, a phantom cold snap and snowstorm shows up 300+ hours. What's new.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49205 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:38 am to
It probably won’t hapoen but to see the model show those temps for south Louisiana is truly fun.
Posted by weadjust
Member since Aug 2012
15659 posts
Posted on 12/20/17 at 11:42 am to
quote:

CHECK THIS frickING shite OUT


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