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Started By
Message
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted on 12/15/17 at 7:45 am to RidiculousHype
Posted on 12/15/17 at 7:45 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
For BR the 6z GFS shows a high in the mid-30's on Christmas Day, with rain all day changing to freezing rain and sleet overnight, lasting most of the next day. And a high of 28 the day after Christmas.
just saw this!! so COLD!!! Please happen...this has been a historical flip flop even for the GFS! 
0
Posted on 12/15/17 at 7:47 am to RidiculousHype
Yeah looks like LA gets a good chunk of the storm on christmas night through the 26th. The cutoff rain/sleet/snow line on the 23-25 appears to be DFW and Austin area
Posted on 12/15/17 at 7:49 am to RidiculousHype
A BR high of 28 would be in-fricking-sane.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 7:50 am to TDsngumbo
What’s my models looking like for Lake Charles in this time frame?
I also read that there’s ANOTHER system possible for New Years as well.
This is per a meteorologist i follow on Facebook
I also read that there’s ANOTHER system possible for New Years as well.
This is per a meteorologist i follow on Facebook
quote:
I have been watching for winter storm and cold wave potential for a few days now, specifically for a December 24 - 27 time frame involving the area to the right of the Rocky Mountains. Of course, from this distance in space and time, there is no way that an exact forecast can be illustrated. But some features are coming together that will favor an interesting turn for TX and OK into Appalachia and the Great Lakes region. You can clearly see a well-defined subtropical get stream on GOES EAST imagery from Mexico into Florida/Georgia. The STJ is taking in energy and moisture from pulses in the Madden-Julian Oscillation, especially the wave above Papua/New Guinea. See also the new storm and trough complex that has emerged off of the coastline of Asia. This feature pumps up a strong ridge axis into Alaska. The "re-wiring" of the upper air pattern will not be complete until Christmas Eve. Another disturbance out of the southern branch wind field will likely result in wave cyclogenesis along a surface cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico, below Galveston TX. While there is little surety in path scenarios for this system, low pressure formations along the western Gulf Coast at this time of year tend to track north/northeast, to the left of the Appalachian Mountains, into the QC Eastern Townships. Temperature forecasts, if they verify, show a profound danger of an ice event for N TX, S OK, and N, C AR. Snow potential would likely be best in the Corn Belt and Great Lakes.The early line says that the south central U.S. needs to be preparing for ice threats. I would not be surprised to see another storm move out of Chihuahua State afterward, perhaps involving the New Year holiday weekend.
This post was edited on 12/15/17 at 7:53 am
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:11 am to Prominentwon
Yes there are signals of another event around the New Year holiday. Gonna be a fun winter, boys!
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:14 am to TDsngumbo
so christmas and NY's
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:17 am to TDsngumbo
Man the forecast for next weekend is just a mess. Models keep flip flopping and changing with each run. Hopefully they start agreeing in the next couple days.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:24 am to LSUJuice
Highs on Christmas Day for the Baton Rouge metro area are going to hover around freezing and the next two days may not get out of the 20's. Whatever ice falls/forms at the surface will stick around for a while. BR would shut down.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:24 am to LSUJuice
quote:
Models keep flip flopping and changing with each run. Hopefully they start agreeing in the next couple days.
They almost have to - even the hurricane models tighten up pretty well 72-hours out, and that's way more variable than winter weather.
Problem in the South is the "it doesn't snow there" or the "it doesn't ice there" factors that man has baked into the models that they then have to pull back out when applicable.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:31 am to CuseTiger
When is the latest I can go to pick up provisions? frick ICE :angry: :angry: :angry:
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:33 am to TDsngumbo
quote:Who wants to join me to skate City Park Lake?
Highs on Christmas Day for the Baton Rouge metro area are going to hover around freezing and the next two days may not get out of the 20's. Whatever ice falls/forms at the surface will stick around for a while. BR would shut down.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 8:40 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Who wants to join me to skate City Park Lake?
I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet. The next run may put us at 80 degrees with rain and a low of 76.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:18 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet. The next run may put us at 80 degrees with rain and a low of 76.
I was looking at the Weather Channel this morning and their graphics said temps would be above average for Christmas Day for most of Louisiana with colder than average back in central Texas
they don't have any chance of wintry precip below about Kansas for Christmas
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:33 am to rt3
quote:
I was looking at the Weather Channel
stopped reading...
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:39 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
stopped reading...
meh... nothing else even remotely interesting on TV as I was getting ready for work this AM
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:44 am to rt3
quote:It all depends on how these large systems set up and where they position themselves. I've read on that the cold air is available and it's kind of 50/50 on whether it'll go east or west.
I was looking at the Weather Channel this morning and their graphics said temps would be above average for Christmas Day for most of Louisiana with colder than average back in central Texas
This pattern that takes hold (whatever it is) could also be significant for the rest of winter.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:52 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:52 am to bayoubengals88
Yes, nothing is set in stone this far out. But if this does set up and give us freezing temps for 48 hours with freezing rain and sleet, the ice that we saw a few years ago (I think it was 2014) will be child's play compared to this.
We'll have to wait and see but it certainly has the potential to be a catastrophic ice event for south Louisiana if freezing temperatures grip us for 48 hours while rain falls the entire time.
We'll have to wait and see but it certainly has the potential to be a catastrophic ice event for south Louisiana if freezing temperatures grip us for 48 hours while rain falls the entire time.
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:52 am to soccerfüt
quote:
I am NOT preparing for ANY potential weather event until Peej weighs in.
This x 100
Posted on 12/15/17 at 9:54 am to Mudminnow
Peej aint worried about this right now. He's burying his father. Let's hold off on our Peej bashing for at least 1 weather thread.
Pay no attention to my signature
Pay no attention to my signature
This post was edited on 12/15/17 at 9:55 am
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