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Message
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Increasing chances of ice/light snow flurries Tuesday afternoon
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:36 pm to Impotent Waffle
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:36 pm to Impotent Waffle
The dry air pushing through early would help the roads too. It'll aid in evaporating the moisture.
1
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:36 pm to Impotent Waffle
Snowing now in Lake Chuck
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:37 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
What are you expecting to happen? Just for the sake of dicussion.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:39 pm to speedbump032
snow seems to have slowed almost to a halt here
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:41 pm to Impotent Waffle
My thought is BR/Northshore catch a solid half inch of snow and some sleet by 8 pm tonight. I tend to think of this stuff more like a bell curve of possible outcomes though, and there's a lesser chance of up to an inch for a lot of the area and a larger chance of it being less than I stated.
A half inch seems the happiest middle ground with the radar showing as it is right now, the stuff over to the west, and the model support from the GFS, Euro, and HRRR.
A half inch seems the happiest middle ground with the radar showing as it is right now, the stuff over to the west, and the model support from the GFS, Euro, and HRRR.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:44 pm to Duke
quote:
My thought is BR/Northshore catch a solid half inch of snow and some sleet by 8 pm tonight. I tend to think of this stuff more like a bell curve of possible outcomes though, and there's a lesser chance of up to an inch for a lot of the area and a larger chance of it being less than I stated.
I found Dr. Josh Eachus, everybody!
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:45 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I found Dr. Josh Eachus, everybody!
That's cold baw.
Hateful people up in this thread now. Hateful.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:47 pm to Duke
No hard feelings! I just got a kick out of your "I think we get... but we may get.... but there's a lesser chance of .... however there's a larger chance that we only get ....". It cracked me up.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:49 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
"I think we get... but we may get.... but there's a lesser chance of .... however there's a larger chance that we only get ....". It cracked me up.
I thought Les Miles had gone into forecasting....
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:50 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
No hard feelings!
I chuckled.
quote:
I just got a kick out of your "I think we get... but we may get.... but there's a lesser chance of .... however there's a larger chance that we only get ....". It cracked me up.
I think of most things in life that way fwiw. Too much statistics in college I guess.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:51 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
I thought Les Miles had gone into forecasting....
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:51 pm to Duke
That’s the sociology.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:53 pm to OysterPoBoy
Duke- how big is the warm layer that’s causing this rain?
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:54 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
I thought Les Miles had gone into forecasting....
It's the want to provide the greatest opportunity for victory in trying to find the optimal correctness in amateur forecasting.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:56 pm to Duke
quote:
It's the want to provide the greatest opportunity for victory in trying to find the optimal correctness in amateur forecasting.
Solid work. Ha ha. I have a strong want for at least some flurries.
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:56 pm to Impotent Waffle
will it be safe to drive around 5-7? coming from work
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:57 pm to tigercraig
Back to sleeting it’s balls off here in NW Calcasieu. Very few flakes at all. Steady ice for almost 3 hours.
This post was edited on 1/16/18 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:57 pm to tigercraig
quote:
Duke- how big is the warm layer that’s causing this rain?
We don't actually have soundings in BR, so I'm running off model soundings.
The latest HRRR has a slight warm nose (up to like 35-36 degrees) sitting between 900 mb and 750 mb. It doesn't fully erode per the HRRR for another three hours or so. Probably less, since it's falling under between hours.
This post was edited on 1/16/18 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 1/16/18 at 2:58 pm to Duke
it's picking up once again in CenLA
Posted on 1/16/18 at 3:01 pm to rt3
Reports of freezing rain and sleet falling in Walker from a trained spotter.
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