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re: Antibody Test- test one per family?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:41 pm to The Johnny Lawrence
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:41 pm to The Johnny Lawrence
quote:Not at all. While you and your son being symptomatic, increase this likelihood, you were also symptomatic at a time where the flu may have been just as likely if not more likely, especially depending on some other factors that impact this likelihood such as location (e.g., NYC > likelihood than New Orleans > likelihood than rural Louisiana) and behaviors (e.g.. New Orleans resident working at a restaurant, attending Mardi Gras and Pelicans game > New Orleans resident who primarily stays at home and works in a small office).
If she finds out she had it, is it fair to assume everyone in the household had it?
And as the likelihood of being infected decreased (e.g., her not having symptoms; you possibly having the flu and the factors that make that more likely) then the probability that her testing false positive increases, and given the fairly poor accuracy of the test results, it may even be more likely it’s a false positive.
Regardless of whether she tests positive or not, I wouldn’t assume you or your son was positive unless one of you is also tested, and ideally both. And if all 3 are tested, then the order of likelihood you had it would probably be as followed:
3/3 test positive
2/3 test positive (you and your son)
2/3 test positive (you and your wife)
2/3 test positive (your wife and son)
1/3 test positive (you)
1/3 fest positive (your son)
1/3 test positive (your wife)
0/3 test positive
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 9:44 pm
1
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:29 pm to Nynna11
quote:
Antibody tests that are available now have a very poor reliability rate despite advertising otherwise. Would wait until more reliable testing is available.
Where does one get the test? I live in Northern Virginia.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:31 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And as the likelihood of being infected decreased (e.g., her not having symptoms; you possibly having the flu and the factors that make that more likely) then the probability that her testing false positive increases, and given the fairly poor accuracy of the test results, it may even be more likely it’s a false positive.
FYI, this guy thinks literally every positive serology test is false positive.
Literally every one.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:36 pm to MidnightVibe
Because every publicized test to this point has used the same flawed assay and sampling 
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:05 pm to Walt OReilly
quote:And if someone has a 5% chance of having it, then using the accuracy data from the first FDA approved test from Cellex (96% specificity; 93.75% negativity), then the probability that a positive result was a true positive is only 55.23% but the probability that his negative result was a true negative is 99.66%.
A buddy of mine(who posts here) took a test and tested positive but his wife tested negative so to answer your question...I don’t believe so
So if they both had a 5% chance of having it, but there was a only a 10% chance that one one would be positive and one would be negative (90% both are one of the other), then given his wife’s negative results, then the 5% probability of the husband having it would be about 0.514%, and the probability that his positive was a true positive is only 3.88%.
In other words, it’s very likely that his result was a false positive. Even if they’re probability of having it was 15% (which is pretty high) given his wife’s result, there is only a 40.7% chance his positive result is actually positive.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:12 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:Bayes’ Theorem is the single most important thing that has to be considered every time when determining the accuracy of the results rather at the individual level, the group level, or the population level.
FYI, this guy thinks literally every positive serology test is false positive.
Literally every one.
Of course, one should take all of the information into consideration to establish an accurate apriori probability, above and beyond a base-rate probability of whatever population their sampling from.
So what exactly is your issue, other than the fact that it made the Stanford study essentially worthless?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:07 am to The Johnny Lawrence
No necessarily.
I’m doing antibody testing and have done about 250 people.
Had a family of four children with three out of four testing positive for antibodies.
I’m doing antibody testing and have done about 250 people.
Had a family of four children with three out of four testing positive for antibodies.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 2:36 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
So what exactly is your issue, other than the fact that it made the Stanford study essentially worthless?
You can keep saying that, but the results have been corroborated by different studies in different cities. So...I'm actually thinking it wasn't worthless.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 2:46 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
So what exactly is your issue, other than the fact that it made the Stanford study essentially worthless?
Because your argument is circular. Because you take issue with the higher number of people that test, you try to downplay results by pointing out the number of false positives that could be expected.
But on the other side of the equation, you dismiss the possibility of there being false negatives -- despite the significantly worse sensitivity range -- on account of your assumption that "well there weren't that many positive anyway"
That's a fairly textbook circular argument.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 4:36 am to The Johnny Lawrence
quote:She definitely had it dude, no need for a test.
she had a cough and sore throat
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